STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET


11/26/09 (105) OAKLAND at (106) DALLAS
My Thanksgiving holidays have gotten quite routine lately: fade
Detroit then follow Dallas in the afternoon football action. The
Cowboys have “feasted” on Turkey Day opponents the last three
seasons, and despite their offensive struggles the last two weeks, I
see it happening again. This will be the first holiday game played at
the new stadium, and that should be motivation enough, if there is
a shortage elsewhere. Both StatFox Game Estimators call for a 16-
point win by Dallas, and even with the 14 total points scored in the
last two weeks, the Cowboys are projected to gain 453 yards and
score 31 points. Oakland is 0-9 when it allows 28 points or more
over the last three seasons, being beaten by 26 points per game.
Look for Thanksgiving Déjà vu in the Cowboys’ contest.
Of late, Thanksgiving Day has been more like Groundhog Day, with Detroit losing early game and Dallas winning big in the late afternoon tilt.
In fact, the L3 Turkey Day wins by the Cowboys have been by 25, 31, & 28 points. Of course, they are expected to win big again in ’09, with the Raiders coming to town for the inaugural holiday affair at brand new Cowboys’ Stadium. Dallas comes in with a 7-3 mark after surviving Washington but is now just 3-6 ATS as double-digit chalk under Wade Phillips. However, they will be looking to extend a run of 29-14 ATS at home in the month of November. Oakland is 4-1 ATS as a dog of 10-points or more under Tom Cable after pulling the upset vs. Cincinnati. This is the first time since ’98 that Oakland has visited Dallas.
StatFox Forecaster: DALLAS 30, OAKLAND 12

Play: Dallas -13.5



The Packers and Lions will meet on Thanksgiving Day for the second time in three years, following the ‘07 contest in which Green Bay won
37-26 as a field goal favorite. Since that game, HC Mike McCarthy’s team has beaten the Lions four straight times, with an average score of 34.8-14.8. In fact, Detroit hasn’t won outright in this series since 2005, a span of eight games (2-6 ATS). The game is very important for Green Bay, 6-4 after beating San Francisco this past Sunday. The Packers won’t play again until next Monday following this. Detroit is 2-8 after beating Cleveland, but hasn’t won back-to-back games since November ’07. Green Bay is 6-3 ATS as road chalk under McCarthy and 8-2 ATS in dome games. Detroit hasn’t won or covered on Thanksgiving since ’03.
StatFox Forecaster: GREEN BAY 27, DETROIT 17




The Thanksgiving Night game offers the best matchup of the three holiday tilts, as the Giants will be visiting the Broncos. Both teams started fast, with New York winning its first five games, and Denver winning its first six, but have since faded. Both teams are 6-4 heading into this contest and in need of a win to keep pace in the playoff hunt. For the Giants, it’s the first visit to Denver since 2001, and they are 4-1 ATS in their L5 road games vs. AFC foes, 9-1 ATS in L10 second half games on the road vs. winning teams. The Broncos’ win over Dallas is Week 4 extended their mark when hosting the NFC to 2-5 in their L7. They look to snap a 4-game SU & ATS losing skid, their longest such skid since’06. Denver has gone under the total in all five home games.
StatFox Forecaster: DENVER 21, NY GIANTS 20





This has been an unusual season for Texas, who has gone about their business without a great deal of fanfare and is two games away from
playing for the national championship. Coach Mack Brown's Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in last six contests as Big 12 road chalk. The presumption is coach Mike
Sherman is wise enough not to bring out the white helmets again, compared to traditional maroon, since Texas A&M is 0-2, losing by 83 total points this season.
The Aggies have covered four of last five at College Station vs. the Horns. Texas is 10-4 and 9-4-1 ATS vs. rival A&M, however the home team is 8-2-1 ATS.
StatFox Forecaster: TEXAS 38, TEXAS A&M 22