Marc Lawrence Playbook 11/26
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
Texas over TEXAS A&M by 21
Texas HC Mack Brown may want to borrow a line from Bon Jovi and tell his
Longhorns “we’ve got to hold on to what we’ve got.” And what they’ve “got”
is an engraved invitation to the BCS title game in Pasadena. That is, of course,
with a victory in College Station and a Big 12 title game win over Nebraska.
Mack’s men are defi nitely more “than halfway there” but the Aggies have
been a bit of a puzzle for Texas QB Colt McCoy. While McCoy set an NCAA
record with his 43rd win as a starter, he is just 1-2 SU in his three tussles with
A&M, with a loss in his lone trip to Kyle Field. In fact, the Aggies have covered
three of the last four in the series and four of fi ve on this fi eld. They’re also 6-2
ATS as double-digit home dogs and a sparking 14-2-2 ATS as conference home
dogs versus an opponent off a win of six or more points. While we would love
to snap the rubber band and fade the perfect Longhorns, our PLAYBOOK.com
database reminds us that: undefeated teams in their last game of the season
are 13-3 ATS when facing a .555 or less opposition. The visitors’ 8-3 ATS log as
favorites of 12 or more points versus a conference opponent with revenge –
along with their solid 12-5 ATS regular season weekday mark – will likely keep
us more interested in seconds of pumpkin pie than this Big 12 nightcap.
Green Bay over DETROIT by 13
Feed the family, walk the dog and slice up the pumpkin pie. It’s Turkey Day and
that means it’s time to share thanks with those we care about the most on this
day of giving. A staple on Thanksgiving is Detroit at home to kickoff a day of
football action. The Lions have not roared lately on Turkey day, going 0-5 SU and
ATS the last fi ve years. They are also just 7-22-1 ATS in games off a win, including
1-9-1 ATS when facing a .600 or greater opposition. The clincher, though, is this
delectable tidbit from our database. It tells us that teams off back-to-back wins
are 16-5 SU and ATS on Butterball Day, including 12-1 SU and ATS as a favorite.
Back the Pack and add a little extra whipped cream to the pie, thank you.
DALLAS over Oakland by 16
Speaking of giving thanks on this day, as football fans we’d like to extend our
gratitude to the Cowboys for showing up for work on this holiday. They’ve
rewarded their backers handsomely as well, going 13-5 ATS on Thanksgiving
Thursday since 1990, including 7-0 SU and ATS against losing teams. While
the Raiders are making their Turkey day debut, they are 0-5 ATS on Thursdays.
With Oakland off its stunning win over the Bengals and just 4-11 ATS in its next
game off a SU underdog win (0-2 this year, with losses 23-3 and 38-0), look for
Dallas to improve on its 16-3 ATS mark as November home chalk against losing
teams here today. And go easy on that pie, will you?
NY Giants over DENVER by 3
The NFL Network takes over Thanksgiving night when the Broncos host the
Giants in this non-conference clash. Like forgotten turkeys left in the oven
without a timer, both teams have been burned in the pointspread wars of
late, bringing a collective 0-9 ATS mark into this fray. Can’t like the Giants’ 0-5
ATS mark as non-division road chalk of three or more points before a division
hoster. The former Kings of the Road are currently 0-2 SU and ATS in their last
two away games and just 1-6 ATS as favorites in games before Cowboy clashes.
Meanwhile, Denver returns to the scene of the crime where they dropped a
32-3 decision to San Diego last Sunday. We like the fact that the Broncos are
10-2 SU and ATS at home off an immediate home loss, including 6-0 SU and
ATS when they own a winning record. With the Big Apples having exited the
penthouse and now looking for trailers to rent, we’ll order up a slice of Denver
for desert tonight. And we promise we’ll start our diet tomorrow.
Reply With Quote