View New Posts
  1. #1

    Default When to stop following a capper?? Advice needed

    I'm interested in finding out from you guys when you feel it is a good time to stop following a handicapper or maybe even fading him. I recently bought a season package for a CBB handicapper. His record last year was +91 units after the juice, and he started out the current season +22 units. I hesitated a bit because I had already missed out on his hot start, but I figured there was still more to come.

    Long story short, after six days of getting his plays, I've lost about 26% of my bankroll. I know that this is no quick fix and I should be thinking long term, but 26% in less than a week! And the highest bet so far has only been 4% of my bankroll, so its not like he had a couple of big losses.

    Part of me wants to keep betting his picks cause he'll turn it around. Other part wants to start fading or just stop all together. It would be much easier if I just got his picks here, but I paid for his picks so I'm out that money too if I just walk away.

    Advice?

  2. #2

    Default

    If you've already paid for it, you better try to stick it out. Or ask him for your money back. If you start fading him you know as well as I do he'll catch fire again and you'll be even further in the hole.

    Just my 2 cents.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 05/24/2012


  3. #3

    Default

    I am no expert so take it fwiw,

    First of all before following anyone blindly you would have to be sure of his record or be able to confirm his record accurately, and the record should have a strong confidence, difference between a small sample size and a good sample size (Confidence interval works for this search the think thank for it). Handicap your handicappers, dont chose them by advertising, instead do the research.
    Capper should be honest and verifiable, concentrate on Units won and ROI% not Win Percentage, capper should also have a good unit system to go with good BR management, i mean if he gives a 2 and 3 unit play regularly which he looses 61% and then he nails a 500* unit play ,that skews his record completely by the end of the season, you cant follow a guy like that regularly, at the most you should track his big plays apart from his regular plays and play accordingly. Also he should give out generally available lines, a good capper is no good if his plays cant be followed.

    Secondly if the capper has a good record confirmed and his unit size are ok for your risk management and Bankroll, then you should stick to him for better or worse since variance is inherent in the game it should be able to balance out the lows and highs, keep good BR management througout and if he truly wins at the end you should too.

    Third, you should keep in mind that when you pay for a service, the cost should come out from your profits and factor in the calculation,so if the capper has a 14% ROI at the end of the season you have to take in account the service cost plus the sum of you bets risked, so maybe the real ROI% would be 9%-11% depending on your unit size.

    Fourth and most important maybe, line shop like hell, if he gives out -110 lines, get a Matchbook account, use reduced books, etc,etc, get the most out of your investment.

    thats all i can think about,

    Best of Luck.

  4. #4

    Default

    i'm not an expert.. take this for what you think its value is.

    research a capper before you play their plays. i got burnt before on this. on the website it says "100$ a unit players made $8,000 last season!"

    When really, their plays are mostly 5 units, so u made that if ur playing 500 a game. and there's 3 plays/day so if u bet 1500 a day you get 8,000 in next 5 months... big difference.

    I say look for a capper that has DOCUMENTED their game-by-game records for last couple seasons. Find a capper who hits 60%.

    DOC NBA on his site he lists his full game-by-game results of every play last year in NBA. If a capper is reluctant to show you his game-by-game results, that should raise an eyebrow.

    If you like your capper, you can stick with him. Since you've already taken a 26% hit in your bankroll i reccomend lowering your unit per game bet.

    So if you're a 100$ a game better, drop down to 70-80 or something.

    Your STRONGEST plays shouldn't be more than 8% of your bankroll.

    The key to success in this business is smart plays as well as MONEY F-ING MANAGEMENT

    hope i helped.

  5. #5

    Default

    like to play cappers picks after a slump....if they are proven...example all this lang fade would have lost you a bunch of money recently....odds are against you when you jump on someone after a nice run.....valentino has been cold lately,but will play next play strong

  6. #6

    Default

    any capper who releases 100, 200, 500 selections is a scammer, after they lose with their 100, and 200 star selections they release the bomb and if they hit they say we are up 300 units for the year

    Stay away from any capper whoi does not have documented record

    Many have differents names and give you both sides of the games

    Search for a capper, they have documented records http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/

    SBR Founder Join Date: 9/4/2005


  7. #7

    Default

    I dont think there are any good cappers

    if a capper is good and wins 55% of the time, he would make millions and did not have to beg people to buy his picks for $50

    SBR Founder Join Date: 9/4/2005


  8. #8

    Stop Sportsmonitor

    Quote Originally Posted by Scorpion View Post
    any capper who releases 100, 200, 500 selections is a scammer, after they lose with their 100, and 200 star selections they release the bomb and if they hit they say we are up 300 units for the year

    Stay away from any capper whoi does not have documented record

    Many have differents names and give you both sides of the games

    Search for a capper, they have documented records http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/

    You know SCORPION,,,,I have followed the sports monitor in the past, and the problem there, is that these people like Wayne Root, and Marc Lawrence are paying to be a part of their database, and then on top of that they only have to give a few of their selections. THEIR ENTIRE CARD is not given, so they only give the MONITOR what they want, if you followed a bunch of these SERVICES for the entire year they are more likely horrible, and are burying their players. Don't get me wrong, it is a good tool, but it is not the BE ALL TO END ALL when purchasing a Service.

    Having been an employee of Wayne Roots in the past, I was sitting in the office day in and day out, and we saw him ONE(1) time in that two month period. He is too busy doing his tv show, running for Political office, and spending time with his family. Alot of these services are in it for one thing and one thing only, to pry you from your money. They are more about the money and not about the selections, that is why they are so bad a lot of times.

  9. #9

    Wink

    Quote Originally Posted by Scorpion View Post
    I dont think there are any good cappers

    if a capper is good and wins 55% of the time, he would make millions and did not have to beg people to buy his picks for $50
    SCORPION, that is spoken like someone who has gotten burned in the past by these so called cappers - sorry to hear that, but not every capper is bad - like you know you are buying their opinion. Cause if you believe that they have people that are inside the organizations and they are getting info from them to give you a pick - I GOT SOME SWAMP LAND IN LOUISIANA I"D LIKE TO SELL YOU

  10. #10

    Default

    I follow John Harrison and Patrick GPW Clinton (the VegasKillers) and there are times when they can't miss and there are times when they miss a lot. Like most these other guys said, you have to manage your bankroll and you have to use your head. Don't follow guys that chase or say they have "inside info". If your guy is proven and gets back to you when you have a question then I would stick with him.

Top