Two teams looking to remain unbeaten hook up in the Preseason NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden, with UConn still searching for its first spread-cover of the season.
LSU has posted three straight double-digit home victories to start the year, the most recent being a 71-60 rout of Western Kentucky as a 6½-point favorite on Nov. 17. The Tigers have been playing strong defense, allowing just 55.7 points per game on 35.5 percent shooting, but offensively they’re making just 42.2 percent of their shots, including a woeful 19.6 percent from three-point range.
UConn also has been off since Nov. 17, when it advanced to New York courtesy of a 76-67 victory over Hofstra, failing to cash as an 18½-point home favorite. The Huskies actually trailed Hofstra by nine points with nine minutes to play before rallying, and they’ve yet to put away any of their opponents. In fact, all three of UConn’s wins were by near identical scores – 75-66, 77-63 and 76-67 – against soft competition, but it never threatened to cover as a double-digit chalk in any contest. Going back to its 82-73 upset loss to Michigan State as a 4½-point favorite in last year’s Final Four, the Huskies are in an 0-4 ATS rut.
These schools played a home-and-home series in 2006-07, with the host winning both contests and LSU getting the cash both times, covering as a 10½-point underdog in a 67-66 road defeat in 2006 and cashing as a 4½-point favorite in a 66-49 win the following year.
LSU is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five Big East games and 5-2 ATS in its last seven on Wednesday, but the Tigers have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 at neutral sites, and they’ve alternated ATS wins and losses in their last eight games. UConn’s 0-4 ATS drought has all come in non-conference action, but the Huskies are on positive pointspread rolls of 7-3 against the SEC, 4-1 at neutral sites and 5-1 on Wednesday.
The Tigers carry “under” trends of 5-2 overall, 4-1 at neutral sites and 5-0 against Big East teams, but the over is 16-5 in their last 21 on Wednesday. UConn is on a slew of “over” runs, including 4-0 overall (all in non-conference play), 20-6 at neutral sites and 4-1 after a SU win. Finally, when these squads met in 2006 and 2007, both games stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LSU
Arizona State (4-0, 1-2 ATS) vs. (7) Duke (4-0, 2-1 ATS)
(at New York)
The other Preseason NIT semifinal also features a matchup of unbeatens, as Duke returns to its home away from home to take on the surprising Sun Devils in the first-ever meeting between these schools.
Arizona State remained perfect with Friday’s 104-65 rout of San Francisco as a 15½-point home favorite on Friday, making a school-record 18 three-pointers along the way. All four of the Sun Devils’ wins have come at home, including three by double digits, and while they’ve scored 84 points or more in three wins, they’ve held all four opponents to 65 points or less (average of 52.8 ppg). ASU is making 53.6 percent of its shots, including 49.4 percent from beyond the three-point arc, while holding opponents to 34 percent shooting (29.3 percent on three-pointers).
Like Arizona State, the Blue Devils have fattened up on cupcakes to start the season, posting blowout home wins over North Carolina-Greensboro (96-62), Coastal Carolina (74-49), Charlotte (101-59) and Radford (104-67). In addition to outscoring those four opponents by more than 34 ppg (93.8-55.2), Duke is shooting 51.6 percent from the field (45.7 percent from three-point range) and allowing 35.3 percent shooting (31.7 percent from long distance). The Blue Devils have enjoyed halftime lead of at least 20 points in three of their first four games.
Duke has played multiple times a year at Madison Square Garden in recent seasons, winning the last three in a row and 10 of the last 11. However, the Blue Devils are just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 Wednesday contests and 1-5 ATS in their last six lined contests following a victory of more than 20 points. Arizona State is 1-4 ATS in its last five after a SU victory.
The over is 5-2 in Duke’s last seven lined contests overall, 6-2 in its last eight non-league games and 7-2 in Arizona State’s last nine neutral-site outings. Conversely, the under is 4-0 in the Blue Devils’ last four against Pac-10 teams, 11-4 in its last 15 at neutral venues, 20-8 in its last 28 on Wednesday and 4-1 in the Sun Devils’ last five on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
Miami (8-5, 6-7 ATS) at Orlando (11-3, 9-5 ATS)
The Magic go after their sixth straight victory when they welcome the Heat to Amway Arena in a battle between Southeast Division rivals.
Miami has been off since Sunday, when it edged the Hornets 102-101, ending a three-game losing skid. However, the Heat never came close to covering as a 10-point home favorite, their sixth consecutive ATS setback. Since starting the season 6-1 SU and ATS, Miami is 2-4, with both victories being by a single point. Also, the Heat have surrendered more than 100 points in all five of their losses while surrendering 93 points or fewer in seven of their eight victories.
Orlando went to Toronto on Sunday and dumped the Raptors 104-96 as a 3½-point road favorite, coming two days after an impressive 83-78 upset victory over the Celtics in Boston. The Magic have won five in a row, going 4-1 ATS, including three consecutive spread-covers entering tonight. During the winning streak, Orlando is outscoring opponents by an average of 10 ppg (96-86), holding all five opponents to 96 points or less.
This is the first meeting of the season between these instate rivals, and it’s a series that Orlando has dominated, winning 10 of the last 11 while going 8-2-1 ATS (7-2-1 ATS as a favorite). Going back further, the Magic are on a 10-2-1 ATS roll against Miami, including 5-0-1 ATS in the last six at Amway Arena. Finally, the host is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six.
Miami’s 0-6 ATS slide includes four straight non-covers against Eastern Conference foes, but the Heat have covered in eight of their last 11 on Wednesday. The Magic are on ATS upticks of 4-1 overall, 14-5 versus the Eastern Conference, 7-1 in divisional contests and 4-1 on Wednesday.
For the Heat, the over is on runs of 4-0 overall, 5-1 on Wednesday, 13-5-1 after a SU victory and 23-8-1 after a non-cover, but the under is 11-2 in their last 13 after an outright win. Orlando has topped the total in six of seven at home and six straight on Wednesday. Finally, the over is 5-2-1 in the last eight Heat-Magic matchups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and OVER
Dallas (10-4, 9-5 ATS) at Houston (8-6, 9-5 ATS)
The Mavericks and Rockets hook up for the second time in two weeks, with Houston welcoming its Southwest Division rivals to the Toyota Center.
Dallas’ five-game winning streak came to a halt in stunning fashion Tuesday night, losing 111-103 as a 13-point favorite. Dirk Nowitzki (28 points, 10 rebounds) posted a double-double, but it wasn’t enough to keep the Mavs from blowing a nine-point lead midway through the fourth quarter. Dallas went 4-1 ATS during its current winning streak, and despite last night’s implosion, they’re still 9-4 ATS since a season-opening upset loss to the Wizards.
Houston has been consistently inconsistent of late, alternating SU wins and losses in its last 11 games in a row, and it comes into this one off Saturday’s 113-106 home victory over the Kings, falling short as an 11-point chalk. Since starting the year on a 5-1 ATS roll, the Rockets have split the cash in their last eight games (1-2 ATS at home).
These teams met back on Nov. 10 in Dallas, and the Mavericks rolled to a 121-103 victory as a 6½-point home favorite. Dallas is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings and 12-4 SU and ATS in the last 16, with the winner covering the spread in all 16 contests. Additionally, the Mavs have cashed in four of their last five trips to the Toyota Center, and the ‘dog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Dallas is on ATS upticks of 5-2 on the highway, 5-2 against Southwest Division rivals, 15-6 on Wednesday and 5-0 against opponents with a winning record. The Rockets are riding positive ATS runs of 9-4 overall, 6-2 at home and 4-0 on Wednesday.
The under has hit in five of the last six series meetings in Houston. Also, the Rockets are on “under” runs of 8-3 as a favorite, 7-2 as a home favorite, 18-8 on Wednesday and 45-22-1 against Southwest Division foes, while Dallas has stayed low in eight of its last 10 when playing on back-to-back nights. However, nine of the Houston’s last 13 overall have hurdled the total, and the Mavericks are on “over’ stretches of 4-1 as an underdog, 8-2 as a road pup and 4-0 as a road ‘dog of less than five points.
Sports Advisors 11/25
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