On paper, NMSU returns all five starters from a year ago and also adds in some solid talent. However, two of those returning starters will miss this game (and the rest of the first semester) due to suspensions/and or grades, and one of the recruits will also be held out of this game as he waits NCAA sanctions for a summer league involvement. On the other hand, Fullerton brings back four starters, two solid Juco transfers, and three transfers with Division I experience. In their last game all Fullerton did was snap UCLA’s 37 game home winning streak against non conference foes, and CSF absolutely deserved that win, as there was not a fluky statline of anything crazy, Fullerton played better, and they won. NMSU is 1-2 on the season with the only win coming against Oklahoma-Panhandle, and in their only other road trip lost by 32 points to St Mary’s. One other key stat to take a look at here is rebounding, and even though Fullerton has played the tougher schedule, they still hold a big time glass edge in this matchup, as CSF is +5.5 in caroms per game and the Aggies are -6.0 in that category. Numbers show that Aggies are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 underdog roles and that Cal State Fullerton is 18-8 in their last 26 tilts against losing teams. Also, while NMSU did win last year’s meeting, that was in Las Cruces, and NMSU pulled out an eight point win but needed to shoot 63% from the field, 52% from beyond the arc, and hit seven more free throws than Fullerton to get that win. Note also that was with a full roster, something New Mexico State does not have at this time. Finally, both sets of our Power Ratings have the Titans favored by more than this number, with one of the sets showing that the line should be in double digits. Remember the Titans!
Triple Threat Sports 11/24
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