ferringo 11/24
2-Unit Play. Take #532 Sam Houston State (Pk) over Oral Roberts (1:30 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 24)
The Southland and the Summit Conferences are both pretty similar in terms of their talents. However, I’ll go with the guards of SHSU over the better ranking (161 to 261 this year, 87 to 123 last year) of ORU. Sammy only lost by 10 points at Kentucky already this year while Oral Roberts lost by 21 at Virginia. Edge, Sam Houston. Oral Roberts lost its top two scorers from last year’s team and is still getting used to some new pieces. ORU only has one senior with previous experience with the team, with the rest of the squad made up of sophomores and JUCO transfers. Sam Houston is chock full of seniors and experienced players. I think that Sam Houston wins because they have more talented, experienced guards. I think they represent the Southland for us again after we hit UT-SA last night!
2.5-Unit Play. Take #527 Troy (+10.5) over UAB (8 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 24)
Note: This line has dropped. It will be graded at +10.0. If your book only has 9.5, just wait a bit. I think the line will bounce the other way.
Troy actually played UAB twice last season, getting hammered by 21 in the first meeting and then losing by just five in the second. I think that they can make this a game. They were actually beating Florida at halftime, on the road, in their last outing. They have a lot of different guys that can run and score and this is somewhat of a regional Rivalry game. UAB still isn’t a very cohesive unit, working in a lot of different pieces from last year. They have won their last two games by 25 and 16 and I think that’s inflated their value a bit. I think Troy can hang around and make this one competitive.
2-Unit Play. Take #577 Canisius (+8.5) over Buffalo (7 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 24)
The Bulls have won five straight in this series, but the underdog has been the play. The puppy is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and dating back to 2000 (10 games) this series has been decided by more than six points just one time. In fact, the average margin between these clubs is just 4.0 points per game with half of those matchups determined by three points or less. Bottom line: these teams play one another tight. Buffalo is clearly the better team. But they are not very good offensively and the Griffs have a backcourt that can compete with UB’s guards. I see this one played in the 50’s, and if both teams are REALLY shooting well, the 60’s. In a low scoring game like that I think the points will hold up.
2-Unit Play. Take #537 Virginia (+3) over Stanford (7 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 24)
The Pac-10 has gotten its ass kicked this season in nonconference play and I think it will again here. I don’t understand how Stanford is favored. Virginia has played three teams ranked 225 or above and two ranked 165 or above. That includes a tough true road game at South Florida. Stanford has barely left home yet. They got worked over in their two games against teams in the Top 165. Their only two wins are against two of the worst teams in all of D-I. And these teams have played a common opponent – Oral Roberts. UVA beat them at home by 21 points. Stanford lost to them at home by two points. I’ll take the ACC squad with much more experience here and the points. Also, UVA coach Tony Bennett is already familiar with Stanford’s personnel and style, having come from the Pac-10. I think that gives his team an edge going into this one.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #571 Citadel (+24) over West Virginia (7 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 24)
Again, how much juice does The Citadel have left? They played three games in three days over the weekend and now have to head to a neutral court to take on West Virginia. That’s a lot to ask. However, this is going to be Citadel’s sixth game already this season compared to just the second for WVU. The Mountaineers haven’t played a game in well over a week, so there may be some rust. They aren’t playing at home, they don’t have Devin Ebanks, and they are facing an experienced team that has its three top scorers back and have added Washington transfer Joe Wolfinger in the middle. Last year Citadel played four games against Top 70 teams early in the year and they lost by 23, 14, 14 and 15. I think they can make these points stand up.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #575 Loyola, Md. (-5.5) over Dartmouth (7 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 24)
Dartmouth just lost to Furman by 23 points on the road. Seriously. The Big Green are still scrambling to find a replacement for departed Ivy Player of the Year and league scoring champ Alex Barnett. Without him, there’s a whole lotta nothing on this roster. Loyola has gotten kicked around so far this year but I think that they are better than they have been playing. There is something going on behind the scenes here that I can’t put my finger on. There is something going on between the coach and guard Jamal Barney, I think, but my sources in that area can’t confirm it. But bottom line: Loyola has twice the talent. And after getting wrecked in their last game by a regional rival (Mt. St. Mary’s) I would think this team would have to salvage some pride and get a win here. Last year Dartmouth lost to teams like Colgate, Lehigh, Army and New Hampshire at home. And UD isn’t better this season.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #558 Texas (-7.5) over Pittsburgh (10 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 24)
I would like to think that Texas got its scare last night and that the team that showed up in the second half against Iowa will come to play for 40 minutes tonight. Still have serious questions about Rick Barnes as a game manager and I hate betting against a Big East underdog here. But the fact of the matter is that Pitt really only has a couple decent guards and one big man. If McGhee gets in foul trouble or if UT can lock up either of the guards then this one should be ugly. I am not sold on this Pitt team this year. They will win some games and be competitive in the Big East because, well, that's what Pitt does. But right now they are a very mediocre team - the same team that struggled to put away Binghamton and was getting knocked around by Wofford - and they are taking too large of a step up in class.
1-Unit Play. Take #946 Wisconsin (Pk) over Gonzaga (9:30 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 24)
I have to say that, even though they were a wreck for about 15 of the 40 minutes, I was more impressed with Wisconsin than I thought I would be. Bo Ryan is just a brilliant coach and just has a great system in place. And with Trevon Hughes they have a go-to guard that can take over a game. This game really comes down to Hughes and Bohanon vs. Boulding and Gray. I will side with the former, and I give Wisconsin the edge because they have the third scorer, big man Jon Lauer. Wisconsin, like all Big 10 teams, struggled with Arizona's athleticism last night. I don't think that Gonzaga has the same level of athlete so I think that the Badgers will just find a way to do what Bo Ryan does - win.
1-Unit Play. Take #539 Vanderbilt (-24) over Chaminade (1:30 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 24)
The host team usually puts up a fight for one of the games in this tournament. But then when they have to face an angry team in a second or third game in a row the wheels usually come off for this D-III school. Vanderbilt is no joke. And even though Cincinnati made them look bad last night this is still a very talented Commodores team. I think that they will dominate this one from start to finish, with better athletes and better talent leading this one from wire to wire for another 30-point romp.
1-Unit Play. Take #590 Utah State (-14) over Idaho State (9 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 24)
After two straight losses and three really tough road games in three tough venues, Utah State is ready for its home opener. Idaho State is coming off a bit of a “fool’s gold” win against a D-II school. I think that game may have made them let down their guard a bit. Idaho State has lost by 34 at BYU and by 20 at Iowa State. They are 1-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog this year and, if you eliminate a three-game ATS winning streak as a DD dog early last year ISU is just 6-15 ATS catching 10 or more points dating back to 2006. I think that Utah State unleashes the fury and just blitzes Idaho. Utah State won by 10 on the road last year (their third straight cover against ISU and their third straight win over them by 10 or more) and I think that they easily top that, with this one looking more like 2006’s 37-point beating the last time ISU went to USU.
2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #544 Cincinnati (+8.5) over Maryland (7 p.m.) AND Take #513 Florida State (+9) over Florida (7 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #550 Western Carolina (-10) over Binghamton (7:30 p.m.) AND Take #558 Texas (-2.5) over Pittsburgh (10 p.m.,Tuesday, Nov. 24)
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #541 Colorado (+9) over Arizona (4 p.m.) AND Take #553 UT-San Antonio (-4) over Fairleigh Dickinson (8 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #517 Cornell (+18.5) over Syracuse (7 p.m.) AND Take #513 Florida State (+9) over Florida (7 pm., Tuesday, Nov. 24)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #590 Utah State (-9) over Idaho State (9 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 24) AND Take #541 Colorado (+9) over Arizona (4 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #590 Utah State (-9) over Idaho State (9 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 24) AND Take #517 Cornell (+18.5) over Syracuse (7 p.m.)
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Originally Posted by vegasfred
