Now that the Sunday markets have reduced this one to -3 we have the
threshold to step into a situation that brings much more to the eye
than the base appearance of two bad teams playing each other.
Yes, both the Lions and Browns are struggling miserably. But to rate
them this close ignores two key realities. First is that the Lions
have played much better football this season. Second, and perhaps
even more important, is that they bring the attitude to compete hard
and improve down the stretch, with real pieces in place to build
around. The Browns don?t.
1-8 vs. 1-8? Take a closer look. Through those nine games Detroit is
a net of 37 points, 54 first downs and 787 yards ahead of Cleveland.
That is substantial. And while the Browns have played a tougher
schedule (#1 vs. #8 on our tables), that gap is only enough to reduce
the statistical advantages by about 10-15 percent.
Now a young Detroit offense that has playmakers to build around in
Matthew Stafford, Kevin Smith, Calvin Johnson and Brian Pettigrew has
had over a half season to develop, and this group brings not only
better talent, but a better sense of purpose than their Cleveland
counterparts in the skill positions. Five different Lions have caught
more passes than any Brown, and there is no light at the end of the
tunnel for an offense that does not have any ability to stretch the
field. And with the strained relationship between Eric Mangini and
the team getting worse by the week, there is the potential for things
to get even worse before they find their bottom point.
<b>4* #414 BALTIMORE/INDIANAPOLIS Over</b>
It has been more than a month since we have seen a Colt Total posted
this low, and it shows how reputations and numbers can lead to false
perceptions.
The Indianapolis defense has put up decent numbers this season, but
they carry little meaning going into this matchup. With Bob Sanders,
Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden missing from the secondary they are
forced to put a patch-work group on the field, and now Aaron
Francisco has been declared out as well, taking away even more depth.
This will be the first road game since that injury cluster took
place, and with Joe Flacco?s ability to work deeper routes both the
coverage abilities and their cohesion will be put to a major test.
With the rush defense also allowing 4.3 per carry, they are not going
to have command of the line of scrimmage either. Sunday?s escape vs.
New England was not just a case of the defense running into Tom Brady
and a talented support cast, but rather the fact that they are a very
limited group right now.
But the Colts will score plenty themselves. As we have written on a
couple of occasions this fall, Peyton Manning is having as good of a
season as any player we have ever tracked. Now he gets to have his
way with a Raven secondary that has struggled mightily all season,
and now has to face the precision of the Indy passing game without
having Terrell Suggs on the field to generate some pressure. If
Manning is not taken out of his rhythm by a pass rush there is far
too much being put on the shoulders of a group that has not played to
anywhere near the past reputation of this season, yet this line still
factors that reputation.
Dave Malinsky Sports
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