For a number of different reasons I look for the large home dog to do just enough to sneak away with the ATS victory with the large spread its been afforded:
After going 4-11-1 last season, Cincinnati (7-2) is in command atop the AFC North. We were on the Bengals last week when they beat Pittsburgh 18-12 last Sunday, however I look for them to play with a small amount of complacency in this one.
Cinncy will also be dealing with Cedric Benson on the sideline due to injury and the arrival of Larry Johnson to fill in.
Cincinnati has lost four straight and 13 of 14 road matchups with the Raiders (2-7), including two playoff defeats.
Playing on the road is, and always has been the "achilles heel" of this team; longterm the Bengals are 7-15 SU their last 22 away from friendly confines and just 1-4 ATS their last five in Oakland.
On the other side of the field: Good news; Jamarcus Russell will not be starting this game; whether it's Bruce Gradkowski or Charlie Frye manning the helm, I expect to see more production from either of them vs. Russell.
The Raiders have a decent defense which is the only thing keeping them in games at times.
Bottom line: Let's not kid ourselves, the Raiders are a horrible team that have had to deal with many on and off field issues. That being said, they always play tough at home and I look for the QB shakeup to generate some momentum; look for the RAIDERS to improve to 2-0 ATS as a home underdog of 7 1/2 to 10 points and for the Bengals to fall to 0-4 ATS as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points! 8* RAIDERS.
Nick Parsons 11/22
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