An ugly pick but the Saints are a double-digit favorite and qualify as a go-against under the strongest ATS system I track. The Saints will put up 24+ but with their injuries on defense I don't think it will be enough to cover. Freeman is giving the Tampa offense life and he has the advantage of home field. This is also a reverse line move spot, with 67% of all bets on the Saints (public money) but the line has gone DOWN from -11.5 to -10.5. Seen this movie before. To cap it off, the Saints have won their last 3 as double digit favorites as in the case here but are 0-3 vs the spread. With a game vs the Patriots next week, I'll hold my nose and back the Bucs for a 4* Play.
Green Bay at San Francisco
Pick San Francisco +6.5
I think SF is in a good spot to fight hard. They've played hard on the road (3-0-1 ATS) including a recent tight loss vs Indy. I think they have enough D to take advantage of GB's O-line issues and have the potential to pull an outright upset. GB beat the Cowboys but I'm not convinced, especially laying the big number. Take the 49ers for a 3* Play.
Minnesota at Seattle
Pick Seattle +10.5
A reverse line-move game with the public squarely on the Vikings. I like Seattle's potential to put up the cover with Hasselbeck playing very well recently. Seattle for a 3* play.
Game Breaker 11/22
Reply With Quote