Fade Langer 11/22
Sunday's Selection ... NOTE:
Doesn't get much better than this.
Peyton Manning, on the road, where he has won 8 in a row, versus a team he has beaten 6 in a row.
You will not get this kind of value with the Colts the rest of the year, and by God I am not about to pass it up.
I haven't lost in the NFL on Sunday in 2 weeks. I am 10-1-1 paid and comp plays the last 2 weeks. I just handed the world the Dolphins outright Thursday.
Now here is why Indy is my One-and-Only 75 dime winner today.
75 DIME - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - MONEY LINE - (Buy down the 1/2 point in this game if you have Indianapolis at -1 1/2, -2, -2 1/2 or even -3. Never get beaten by the hook.).
Peyton owns the Ravens.
Last year he was rusty when he faced them, and lit them up 31-3 like it was nobody's business - and how did Joe Flacco do against Indy's cover two defense?
The Ravens only crossed into Colts territory on three of their 12 drives and turned the ball over five times.
Not enough for you, let me take you back to the 2006 season when the Ravens met the Colts in the 2nd round of the NFL playoffs in Baltimore.
Ravens were off a bye week. They had the # 2 run defense. The # 6 pass defense. The # 1 overall defense. They were ready.
Peyton Manning and the Colts won the game 15-6 on the way to their Super Bowl victory.
Now let's fast forward to 2009. Trust me folks, a lot has changed.
Ravens are no longer the big feared defense. In fact, they are nowhere close, and you had better believe Peyton can't wait to attack them again.
Let me break it down a little easier for you.
In their 5 wins this year the QB's the Ravens have beaten are Matt Cassell, Philip Rivers, Brady Quinn twice and Kyle Orton.
Let me point out that in their win over the Chargers, Rivers was 25 for 45 for 421 yards and if not for a horrific 4th and 1 play call, they don't beat Philip Rivers.
The weakness of this Ravens defense is their secondary and if you don't get pressure with your blitz, your man to man coverage behind it is going to get lit up like a Christmas tree at night.
Question, who is the best QB in the NFL at handling the blitz? Answer is 100% without a doubt Peyton Manning.
This is as bad a matchup for the Ravens as you can ask for, and I fully expect Peyton to do what he always does versus this Baltimore team and that is execute his offense to precision and get the win.
I am aware of the flat spot for Indy in this game off the big home win over the Patriots and if they were playing anybody else other than the Ravens I might be inclined to look the other way.
Fact of the matter is Ray Lewis and this Ravens defense could match wits with Peyton 100 times, and I would go with Peyton all 100, unless the Ravens made a drastic change in their defensive philosophy.
That is not happening in mine or yours lifetime. The Ravens do what they do. Blitz, and play man behind it. If you can protect and beat us. Congrats. You beat us but it still won't stop us from blitzing. It is who they are.
Honestly, beating a team once or twice in a row, or even 3 times in a row maybe considered lucky...but 6 times in a row? With the same QB and the same basic defense this QB has seen all 6 times.
Do you really think the Ravens can come up with anything in this game Peyton hasn't seen from them before? And he faces probably the easiest Ravens defense he has seen in the previous 6 meetings.
Offensively the Ravens are struggling bigtime. You saw those struggles on Monday night versus the worst run defense in the NFL of the Cleveland Browns and a pass attack which made 2nd year QB Joe Flacco look very average.
Truth be told, the offense is regressing with Cam Cameron, and I don't see it getting that much better on a short week versus the Colts.
Indy is 9-0 and I just don't see Joe Flacco doing something Tom Brady couldn't do and that is beat the Colts. Teams now have film to work with on young Mr. Flacco and you can see it with how he is struggling in year # 2 as is Matt Ryan of Atlanta.
Lastly, the line move in this game doesn't scare me at all as I felt Indy should have opened at -3 and it seems the line is working it's way up to that as kickoff draws near.
At the end of the day you will never get Peyton Manning at this kind of money line price any probably for the rest of his career and it's because of this I am banking on him big time today.
15 DIME - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - Great spot for the road dog here.
First and foremost, great line value here with the Niners courtesy of the Packers big win over the Cowboys.
Off that win the linemakers sees fit to jack up this number near a touchdown, and it's value I will not pass up.
This is a Niners team that in the same situation went into Indy and took Peyton and the Colts down to the wire in an 18-14 Indy win.
The 49ers have covered every road game this year, including an outright win at Arizona, and we all know what should have been an outright win at Minnesota if not for the last second heroics of Brett Favre.
Their other two road games were the aforementioned Colts, and the 3 point loss at Houston catching 3 1/2.
This team performs well in the role of road dog, and they have also been performing well under Mike Singletary to the tune of 6-1 ATS last 7 on the road.
The Packers are not good enough to be laying this kind of number against anybody as evidenced by their 2 outright home losses to the Bengals as a 9 1/2 point favorite, and the Vikings as a 3-point favorite.
I will gladly grab great value with San Francisco today and watch them be in this game the whole way and it wouldn't suprise me if they won the game outright.
FREE SELECTION - MINNESOTA VIKINGS
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Originally Posted by Preston09
