League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 22.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.2
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.1
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
CAROLINA -3 Miami 42.5
Miami needed a late score against TB last week to escape with a 25-23 win.
Miami out rushed TB 5.5ypr to 3.9ypr but was out passed 5.8yps to 5.5yps.
Overall, they out gained TB 5.5yppl to 4.9yppl. Carolina played extremely
well against Atlanta in their 28-19 win. They were out rushed 6.1ypr to
5.4ypr by Atlanta. They did out pass Atlanta, 8.1yps to 5.5yps. Overall,
they out gained Atlanta 6.6yppl to 5.7yppl. For the season, Miami averages
4.6ypr against 4.5ypr but just 4.9yps against 5.8yps and 4.8yppl against
5.2yppl overall on offense. The defense is average, allowing 3.7ypr against
4.3ypr, which is very good, but allowing 7.1yps against 6.6yps for a total
of 5.6yppl against 5.6yppl. Carolina rushes the ball better at 4.8ypr
against 4.5ypr, throws the ball better at 5.6yps against 6.1yps (still below
average but better than Miami) and is better overall on offense at 5.2yppl
against 5.4yppl. On defense, they have struggled against the rush, allowing
5.6ypr against 5.4ypr but just 5.8yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against
5.5yppl overall on defense, making them better on defense as well. Carolina
qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 83-42-7. Numbers favor
Carolina by 1.5 before accounting for the situation. They also predict about
45 points. Miami will be without Ronnie Brown for the rest of the season.
Carolina lost LB Thomas Davis a couple of weeks ago and lost LT Jordan Gross
last week for the season. They also have a few other injuries but will get
back Julius Peppers for full time duty this week (he was limited last week).
Losing Brown has to hurt Miami seeing he was so instrumental in their
wildcat formations. They will still run that and I am sure they will be
effective, but this should hurt their efficiency. If Carolina can control
that run game some, they will force Miami into passing situations, where
they are weak. Meanwhile, Carolina will certainly look to run the ball as
well but can throw the ball to attempt to open up the running game and are
much more capable of establishing the pass than Miami is. Miami has played
four games on the road this year and lost by 12, 10, 10 and won by 5 points.
The game they won against the Jets saw them gain just 104 yards and allowed
the Jets 378 yards. They were out gained 4.9yppl to 2.0yppl but had a
defensive score and two kick off returns for touchdowns. While Miami has
scored 25 or more points in five of six games, all of those games, except
the Jets game came at home. They have struggled badly on the road and
without Ronnie Brown, they are likely to struggle again this week. Carolina
has won four of six games, including wins over Arizona and Atlanta. Their
losses came to NO by 10 but they were very competitive in that game and they
lost to Buffalo 20-9 but out gained Buffalo 425 yards to 167 and 6.0yppl to
3.1yppl. Four Carolina turnovers aided Buffalo. If Carolina turns it over in
this game they will lose as well. Carolina, with better numbers, in better
form with a good situation in their favor, laying a short number make this a
play. CAROLINA 27 MIAMI 17
DETROIT -3.5 Cleveland 38
Cleveland continued to be horrible on offense last week, gaining just 3.3ypr
and a measly 2.1yps for a total of 160 yards at 2.6yppl. Wow! They allowed
the Ravens to run for just 3.7ypr but 6.4yps and 4.7yppl. Detroit lost at
Minnesota and they were out rushed 4.9ypr to 4.2ypr, out passed 10.6yps to a
woeful 3.8yps and out gained overall 7.8yppl to 3.9yppl. On the season,
Cleveland averages a woeful 3.6yps against 5.8yps and 3.7yppl against
5.0yppl. The defense is also extremely poor, allowing 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr,
6.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. Detroit isn't as bad
throwing the ball but still terrible, gaining just 4.7yps against 5.9yps and
4.4yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.3yps against
6.5yps and 6.3yppl against 5.6yppl. I don't have any situations on this
game. Numbers favor Detroit by 4.5 points and predict about 36 points.
Cleveland hasn't scored more than 14 points in a road game this year and
that goes back to their last three road games last year. They have averaged
less than seven points per game in those last eight road games. Meanwhile,
in those same eight road games, they have allowed at least 27 points in all
but one of those eight games (a 6-3 win at Buffalo this year). Detroit has
gone 11 home games without scoring more than 20 points and averaged 14
points per game during those 11 games. Against the two below average
offenses they have faced at home this year, they have allowed 14 and 17
points. I just don't see how Cleveland can win this game and that probably
means they don't cover either. DETROIT 14 CLEVELAND 10
JACKSONVILLE -8.5 Buffalo 42.5
Jacksonville hung tough and came away with a win at the Jets last week. They
rushed for 4.3ypr to just 3.8ypr for the Jets, out passed them 7.4yps to
6.8yps and out gained them overall 5.8yppl to 5.4yppl. Buffalo let the game
get away from them in the fourth quarter when they were out scored 24-0.
They were out rushed 4.8ypr to 4.5ypr, out passed 8.4yps to 5.4yps and out
gained overall 6.3yppl to 5.1yppl. Buffalo struggles to throw the ball,
gaining just 5.1yps against 6.2yps and 4.6yppl against 5.5yppl overall. They
also allow 5.1ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.3yppl
against 5.3yppl. Jacksonville runs the ball well, averaging just 5.1ypr
against 4.4ypr and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 6.9yps against 6.1yps
and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. I don't have any situations on this game.
Numbers favor Jacksonville by seven points and predict about 38 points.
Jacksonville has won only one game this year by more than seven points.
Buffalo has been hit hard by injuries, especially on defense, and this game
doesn't match up well for them at the line of scrimmage. If the line were
seven or less, I would consider Jacksonville. JACKSONVILLE 27 BUFFALO 17
Pittsburgh -10 KANSAS CITY 40
Big loss for Pittsburgh last week and nothing fluky about it. They played
Cincinnati even from the line of scrimmage at 3.6yppl. They out rushed
Cincinnati 4.4ypr to 2.1ypr but were out passed 4.9yps to 3.3yps. KC won at
Oakland but did allow 182 yards rushing at 6.1ypr to just 3.6ypr for KC.
They out passed Oakland 5.7yps to 2.6yps and out gained them overall 4.7yppl
to 4.3yppl. Steelers average 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against
5.4yppl. They allow just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.3yps against 5.9yps and
4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. KC averages just 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.7yps
against 6.1yps and 4.2yppl against 5.2yppl. They also lost WR Bowe this week
for four games. The defense allows 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against
6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. I don't have any situations on this
game. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 12 and predict about 40 points. KC has
lost by at least 11 points in every game against good teams this year except
a six point OT loss at home to Dallas but they were blown away in the stats
dept. of that game but got a couple of key turnovers. Slight lean to
Pittsburgh in this game. PITTSBURGH 27 KANSAS CITY 13
Indianapolis -1.5 BALTIMORE 44
Baltimore started sluggishly last week at Cleveland before doing away with
the lowly Browns. They out rushed them 3.7ypr to 3.3ypr, out passed them
6.4yps to 2.1yps and out gained them overall 4.7yppl to 2.6yppl. Indy also
started out poorly and then had the miracle win late against NE. They out
rushed NE 5.1ypr to 4.0ypr but were out passed 8.3yps to 7.0yps and out
gained slightly overall 6.6yppl to 6.5yppl. Indy still struggles to run the
ball at 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr but average 7.7yps against 6.5yps for a total
of 6.4yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 5.3yps against 6.1yps and
4.9yppl against 5.3yppl overall but are still hurting in the secondary with
numerous injuries. Baltimore averages 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl
against 5.3yppl. The defense allows just 3.5ypr against 3.9ypr but 6.1yps
against 5.9yps and 5.0yppl against 5.0yppl. Baltimore will miss Suggs this
week and possibly Ngata as well. Baltimore qualifies in fundamental rushing
situations, which are 128-66-5, 552-417-30 and 459-300-21. Numbers favor
Indy by three points and predict about 45 points. Indy comes off three
straight home games and they struggled to win those games over SF, HOU and
NE. They won those three home games by 4, 3 and 1 point so nothing was easy.
But Baltimore has struggled against better than average teams. Their one win
this year was at SD in week two against a banged up Chargers team. I would
like to play Baltimore here but their defensive injuries and the fact Peyton
Manning seems to find a way to win games makes playing Baltimore tough. And,
Manning just needs to win this game. BALTIMORE 27 INDIANAPOLIS 21
NY GIANTS -7 Atlanta 46
Giants come off their bye week and are starting to get healthy. Atlanta
comes in off a loss at Carolina that saw them get out gained 6.6yppl to
5.7yppl. They were out passed 8.1yps to 5.5yps but did out rush Carolina
6.1ypr to 5.4ypr although they did get out rushed, yardage wise, 185-176.
Atlanta's running game has finally come around as they average 4.5ypr
against 4.2ypr and they average 6.3yps against 5.9yps for a total of 5.5yppl
against 5.2yppl. They will most likely with without Michael Turner this
week. The defense is still below average, allowing 4.6ypr against 4.5ypr,
6.6yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. The Giants average 6.8yps
against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr
but just 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. I don't have any
situations on this game. Numbers favor the Giants by 4.5 points and predict
about 52 points. I don't have enough reasons to play the Giants in this game
but I have felt Atlanta was overrated just about all year long. Atlanta has
allowed an average of 33 points per game on the road against above average
offenses this year. Giants have averaged 27 points at home against below
average defenses. Atlanta has averaged 24 points on the road against above
average defenses this year (median of 20 points seeing they scored 45 at
SF), while the Giants have allowed 23 points at home to above average
offenses at home. That leads to a predict final of about 30-23. That works
for me. NY GIANTS 30 ATLANTA 23
GREEN BAY -6.5 San Francisco 42
SF had an extra three days to prepare for this game with their Thursday
night win over the Bears last week. They out rushed Chicago 3.9ypr to 2.0ypr
but were out passed 5.9yps to 4.2yps. Overall, they were out gained 4.8yppl
to 4.1yppl. Part of those overall numbers are because Chicago threw the ball
27 more times than SF, leading to the yppl advantage. GB pulled out the win
over the Cowboys 17-7, allowing a last minute Cowboy td to break the
shutout. GB scored 10 of their 17 points on drives of 20 yards or less. They
were out rushed 4.4ypr to 3.8ypr, out passed 4.9yps to 4.5yps, allowing four
more sacks although they did sack Tony Romo five times. Overall, Dallas out
gained GB 4.8yppl to 4.2yppl. Three Cowboy turnovers aided the Packers. SF
still struggles on offense. The rushing game averages 4.4ypr against 4.4ypr
but the passing game averages just 5.2yps against 6.2yps and 4.8yppl against
5.5yppl overall. On defense SF allows just 3.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.3yps
against 6.4yps and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl. The Packers also average 4.4ypr
against 4.4ypr and 6.5yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.6yppl against
5.5yppl. On defense, they allow just 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.8yps
against 5.9yps for a total of 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. SF qualifies in a
fundamental rushing situation, which is 156-77-7. Numbers favor GB by 6.5
points and predict about 42 points. SF plays games close and other than a 35
point loss at home to Atlanta in a game that simply got away from them, they
haven't lost by more than seven points this year and are 3-0-1 ATS on the
road as underdogs. Those four games have come against the likes of Arizona,
Minnesota, Houston and Indianapolis so they have faced quality teams. They
have averaged 19 points on the road against good defenses and allowed an
average of 21 points on the road against good offenses. GB changed their
philosophy a little bit last week. They are protecting more, going to three
step drops, throwing the ball short more often to protect Aaron Rodgers from
all the sacks this year. For GB to continue to be effective, they will need
to do more of that, allowing their defense to defend long field positions.
The 49ers ability to rush the ball, stuff the rush and put pressure on the
quarterback should allow them to stay in this game. The situation is a
strong situation and worthy of a shot with SF. GREEN BAY 21 SAN FRANCISCO 20
MINNESOTA -10.5 Seattle 46.5
Vikings keep rolling with an easy win over lowly Detroit last week, 27-10.
They dominated Detroit, 4.9ypr to 4.2ypr, 10.6yps to 3.8yps and 7.8yppl to
3.9yppl. Seattle jumped out to a lead at Arizona but couldn't hold on. They
rushed the ball for 164 yards at 6.8ypr while allowing Arizona 122 yards
rushing at 4.1ypr. The also threw for 308 yards but at just 5.4yps while
allowing Arizona 340 yards at 8.9yps. Overall, they were out gained 6.8yppl
to 5.8yppl. Seattle averages just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.6yps against
6.3yps and 5.0yppl against 5.5yppl overall. The defense allows 4.3ypr
against 4.3ypr, 6.1yps against 6.2yps and 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. Minnesota
continues to improve on offense and now averages 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr,
7.1yps against 6.4yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense allows 5.9yps
against 5.6yps and 5.2yppl against 5.0yppl and will probably be without
Antoine Winfield again this week. Minnesota qualifies in a couple of letdown
situations this week, which are 111-37-3 and 56-26-2. Numbers favor
Minnesota by 10.5 points before the situations and predict about 52 points.
Seattle is somewhere between the poor teams (Clev, Det, StL, etc) and the
next level (GB, Bal, SF, Pit) of teams Minnesota has played this year. Other
than the lower tier teams Minnesota hasn't defeated any of those other teams
by more than 12 points and with the exception of that 12 point win over GB,
the rest of the games have been decided by seven points or less. Seattle has
struggled on the road losing by 13, 17, 21 and 11 points so they have not
fared well against the better competition. The line is fair and the
situations are very strong in Seattle's favor and worth a shot. MINNESOTA 30
SEATTLE 27
DALLAS -10.5 Washington 41.5
Dallas lost at GB last week and didn't play well but they did out gain GB
4.8yppl to 4.2yppl, including out rushing them 4.4ypr to 3.8ypr and out
passing them 4.9yps to 4.5yps. Three key turnovers aided GB and 10 of their
17 points came on drives of 20 yards or less. Washington upset Denver 27-17,
including out passing them 7.1yps to 5.4yps. They were out rushed 5.5ypr to
4.4ypr and out gained Denver 5.5yppl to 5.4yppl. Washington completed a 35
yd touchdown pass on a fake kick, which would bring their overall passing
numbers down to 6.2yps without that play. Washington averages just 4.1ypr
against 4.5ypr and 5.9yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.1yppl against
5.5yppl. The defense has played well allowing just 5.3yps against 5.7yps and
4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. The Dallas offense has slowed down but they still
average 5.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.2yps against 6.1yps and 6.3yppl against
5.3yppl. They allow 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. I don't have any situations on
this game. Numbers favor Dallas by 13.5 points and predict about 35 points.
Dallas has struggled here against Washington the last two years as double
digit favorites in high scoring games. Other than a 17 point win in 2006
they haven't won here against Washington by more than seven points since
2000. I still like Dallas more than Washington to cover this game.
Washington hasn't scored more than 17 points in any game this year until
last week and hasn't scored more than 17 points on the road in any game.
They have allowed 23 and 31 points on the road against good offenses. Dallas
has averaged 30 points at home against three good defenses, while not
allowing more than 17 points at home to below average offenses. DALLAS 27
WASHINGTON 14
New Orleans -11.5 TAMPA BAY 51.5
The Saints continue to show signs of cracking and have been turning the ball
over more than they would like in recent weeks. They got away with a five
point win at St. Louis last week but turned the ball over three more times.
They out rushed the Rams 7.0ypr to 4.9ypr, out passed them 8.0yps to 7.0yps
and out gained them 7.5yppl to 6.1yppl. Still nothing wrong with their
offense but the defense gave up a lot of yards to the Rams, who have been
anemic on offense all year long. TB played tough at Miami but lost 23-25 on
a late Miami drive. They were out rushed 5.5ypr to 3.9ypr but did out pass
Miami 5.8yps against 5.5yps. Overall they were out gained 5.5yppl to
4.9yppl. NO averages 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr, 8.1yps against 6.2yps and
6.5yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense continues to slip as they allow 5.2yppl
against 5.1yppl. TB averages just 5.1yps against 5.8yps and 4.7yppl against
5.1yppl. On defense, they have really struggled, allowing 4.9ypr against
4.5ypr, 7.2yps against 6.3yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. I don't have any
situations on this game. Numbers favor NO by 15.5 points and predict about
59 points. While the TB passing numbers are down, they have averaged 6.2yps
and 5.8yps the last two weeks, which is a huge improvement over their season
long average of 5.1yps. The Saints will enter minus their two starting
cornerbacks. A depleted defense along with the improved offensive play of TB
could be enough to keep them in this game, spread wise. NEW ORLEANS 35 TAMPA
BAY 27
Arizona -8.5 ST LOUIS 47
Arizona fell behind last week 14-0 before coming back to win by 11 points.
They allowed Seattle to rush for 6.8ypr and 164 yards to 6.1ypr and 122
yards themselves. They did out pass Seattle 8.9yps to 5.4yps and 340-308.
Overall they out gained Seattle 6.8yppl to 5.8yppl. The Rams lost at home to
NO and allowed 7.0ypr (203 yards), 8.0yps and 7.5yppl (420) but their
offense averaged 4.9ypr, 7.0yps and 6.1yppl on 434 yards overall. It was
easily their best offensive performance of the year. Arizona averages just
3.8ypr against 4.3ypr but 6.4yps against 6.0yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl.
The defense allows 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl after playing so well against the
run earlier in the year, they have now allowed 5.8ypr or more in each of
their last three games. The Rams average 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr but just
5.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. The Rams allow 4.5ypr
against 4.3ypr, 7.2yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl. The Rams
are vulnerable against the pass and while NO had plenty of balance last
week, I don't see the Cardinals doing that. St. Louis does qualify in a
fundamental rushing situation, which is 128-66-5. Numbers favor the Cards by
9.5 points and predict about 39 points. Arizona has scored at least 24
points in every road game this year and 31 points against the poor defense
they played on the road this year. The Rams have allowed at least 28 points
in every home game this year and they have all been against good offensive
teams. The Rams have struggled to score points at home all year, somewhat
because of turnovers because they have moved the ball at times at home.
Knowing the Cards will probably get to at least 28 points, makes it tough to
take the Rams but I will lean that way because of the situation. ARIZONA 31
ST LOUIS 23
NEW ENGLAND -10.5 NY Jets 45
NE lost a heart breaker last week with a risky fourth down call on their own
28 yard line with just over two minutes left in the game. They were out
rushed 5.1ypr to 4.0ypr but out passed Indy 8.3yps to 7.0yps and slightly
out gained Indy 6.6yppl to 6.5yppl. The Jets suffered a big loss at home,
24-22 as they were out rushed 4.3ypr to 3.8ypr, out passed 7.4yps to 6.8yps
and out gained overall 5.8yppl to 5.4yppl. NE averages 7.3yps against 6.1yps
and 6.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.2yppl
against 5.3yppl. The Jets average 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.9yps
against 6.4yps and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense has been strong,
allowing just 4.1ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.1yps against 6.1yps and 4.6yppl
against 5.3yppl. The Jets qualify in my turnover table, which is 406-260-22
and also qualify in a bounce back situation, which is 83-42-6. They also
qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 552-417-30. Numbers
favor NE by only eight points and predict about 40 points. The Jets, despite
their five losses this year, have been in all of their games. They have lost
by 14, 4, 3, 5 and 2 points. The 14 point loss was at NO and they played the
Saints tough in that game but gave up two defensive touchdowns. They have
also played the Patriots close here in NE the last 10 years during the
regular season, not losing a game by more than 10 points, with the exception
of a 13 point loss in 2005. I realize the Jets are not in good form and NE
is seeking revenge from their loss earlier in NY but there is value, bounce
back, contrary and fundamental situations in the Jets favor this week. That
is usually a pretty strong combination and they deserve a shot here because
of that. Combine that with a solid running game and a solid defense. NEW
ENGLAND 24 NY JETS 21
Cincinnati -9 OAKLAND 36
Cincinnati played a solid game at Pittsburgh last week in their win. They
were out rushed 4.4ypr to 2.1ypr but out passed the Steelers 4.9yps to
3.3yps. Overall, they were even with Pittsburgh at 3.6yppl. Oakland lost at
home to KC, 16-10, although they did out rush KC 6.1ypr to 3.6ypr, including
182 yards rushing. They were out passed 5.7yps to 2.6yps and out gained
overall, 4.7yppl to 4.3yppl. Cincinnati averages 6.3yps against 5.9yps and
5.2yppl against 5.0yppl. They allow 3.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against
6.4yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. The Raiders struggle big time on
offense, gaining just 4.1yps against 6.0yps and 4.0yppl against 6.2yppl.
They allow 4.4ypr against 3.9ypr and 6.7yps against 6.4yps for a total of
5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. Oakland qualifies in my turnover table play, which
is 406-260-22. The Bengal's also qualify in a letdown situation, which is
56-26-2 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 14, before
accounting for the situations and predict about 33 points. Cincinnati comes
in off a couple of big wins and travels out west in what can easily be
classified as a letdown game. Cincinnati is 0-3 ATS as a favorite this year
and hasn't won a road game by more than seven points. But, they haven't been
favored against Oakland yet. The Raiders haven't scored more than 20 points
in a game and that was the first game against SD. Take away that game and
they haven't scored more than 13 points in a home game this year. They've
averaged 5.5 points at home against better than average defenses, while
allowing about 19 points per game at home to above average offenses.
Cincinnati has averaged 20 points per game on the road against below average
defenses and allowed 20 points to the one below average offense they faced,
Cleveland. I would like to play Oakland because they are in a good situation
but asking bad teams to do good things for you usually isn't profitable. I
will just lean their way. CINCINNATI 20 OAKLAND 13
San Diego NL DENVER NT
I will come back on Sunday morning once a line is posted for this game.
Philadelphia -3 CHICAGO 45
Philly rushed just 13 times last week compared to 58 pass attempts. They
were out rushed 4.3ypr to 2.2ypr, out passed 7.9yps to 7.5yps but out gained
SD 7.5yppl to 7.0yppl because of 31 more pass attempts. Chicago out played
SF in their 10-6 loss to SF, but five Jay Cutler interceptions did them in.
They were out rushed 3.9ypr to 2.0ypr but out passed SF 5.9yps to 4.2yps and
out gained them overall 4.5yppl to 4.1yppl, also because they threw the ball
27 more times than SF. Philly averages 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.8yppl
against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.5yps against
6.1yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl but are hurting on defense with numerous
injuries. Chicago averages just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.4yppl against
5.4yppl. They allow 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. The Bears qualify in my
turnover table, which is 406-260-22. But, Philly qualifies in fundamental
rushing situations, which are 552-417-30 and 459-300-21. Numbers favor
Philly by 4.5 points and predict about 48 points. I will lean with Philly
and the over in this game. PHILADELPHIA 27 CHICAGO 21
HOUSTON -5 Tennessee 48.5
Houston comes off their bye week, while Tennessee comes in winners of three
straight, including three straight covers. They defeated Buffalo 41-17 last
week by out scoring Buffalo 24-0 in the fourth quarter. Overall, they out
rushed Buffalo 4.8ypr to 4.5ypr (168-89), out passed them 8.4yps to 5.4yps
and out gained them overall 6.3yppl to 5.1yppl. Tennessee averages 5.3ypr
against 4.2ypr and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl overall. They allow 5.8yppl
against 5.6yppl. Houston struggles to rush the ball, averaging just 3.3ypr
against 4.3ypr but 7.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl
overall. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.3yps against 5.9yps and 5.7yppl
against 5.2yppl. Tennessee qualifies in a letdown situation, which is
81-39-7 and plays against them here. Tennessee qualifies in fundamental
rushing situations, which are 552-417-30 and 120-49-8. Numbers favor Houston
by four points and predict about 51 points. Tennessee has won five of seven
games played here with the two losses by one and ten points. I'll respect
the situation going against Tennessee enough to keep me off of them for a
best bet but I will lean their way. Solid running game along with a defense
finally getting healthy and getting points to boot. HOUSTON 27 TENNESSEE 24
Sixth Sense 11/22
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