[LLXC]

Matt Fargo
PICK:Jacksonville Jaguars: -8.5 () / 4 units
**4** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **68% RUN** The deadline was approaching for my weekly suicide pool pick on Tuesday as I was torn between a few teams. Then news broke early afternoon that the Bills had just fired head coach Dick Jauron and that made my decision pretty straight-forward. If you are a general manager or owner and are going to fire your coach, do it Sunday after the game and don’t wait two days into the week to do it. Buffalo was absolutely annihilated in the fourth quarter last week in Tennessee and that certainly finalized the coaching decision as Jauron lost control of that sideline. Now the Bills need to prepare for another road game on a very short week of planning and this just isn’t going to happen. A coaching change mid-season tells us one main thing and that is that the team has called it quits. In other sports, we can sometimes use the coaching change as motivation but not here as there are too few played in a season and too few games remaining. If Buffalo was facing a team that was in a similar position of fighting for a draft pick, this pick would probably not transpire. However, Jacksonville has gotten itself right back into the playoff race. Once left for dead after a 41-0 thrashing at the hands of the Seattle, the Jaguars have won three of their last four games and even though the results were close, by a combined eight points, they outgained the opposition in all of those games which make the wins actually more substantial because other variables came into play. Jacksonville is now 5-4 on the season and just a game out of the Wild Card spot in the AFC. The Jaguars are tied with other teams so they will need help but they need to take care of business and they know this. The remaining schedule is very tough with the exception of a couple of games so they cannot falter here. Buffalo has been outgained on the ground in seven straight games no thanks to a rushing defense that is ranked dead last in the NFL, allowing 173 ypg and 5.1 ypc. The Bills are the only team in football giving up over half of a first down per carry on the ground. Can Jacksonville exploit this Buffalo rushing defense? I’d say so as Maurice Jones-Drew is fifth in the NFL with 860 yards and he has had 123 or more rushing yards in three of his last four games. On the other side Ryan Fitzpatrick got the call at quarterback over Trent Edwards but that isn’t going to do much for the offense. The Bills will no doubt try and pound the ball and while the Jaguars have allowed a good amount of yards on the ground, they are allowing just 4.3 ypc.The passing defense has been the liability but Buffalo cannot exploit it with the league’s 29th ranked offense. The rushing edge for Jacksonville also puts it into a great angle. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 150 or more rushing ypg, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 27-8 ATS (77.1 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +13.5 ppg. This is not a must win for the Jaguars but it is as close to it as possible as a loss would be detrimental. Even with the recent personnel changes for the Bills, this line has not done a whole lot. 4* Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00p
Matt Fargo
PICK:New York Giants: -6.5 () / 4 units
The Giants are coming off the bye week and hopefully they found some answers as to what has been going on the over the last four games. After starting the season 5-0, New York was thumped by the Saints and it has not been the same team since then. Normally this is sign to stay away by some but I think this is the best time to play on teams like this as we get a lot of additional value that we otherwise would not receive has they been playing like they should be playing. Despite the four straight losses, the Giants have outgained two of those opponents and those happened to be the two games played at home against the Cardinals and Chargers. Arizona played a good game and deserved the win but the Chargers had no business winning their game prior to New York’s bye week. All told, the Giants week off could not have come at a better time. Atlanta continues to struggle on the road. The Falcons are 1-4 away from home this season and they have lost the first three in this stretch of four road games in five weeks. Some of the losses have been close but this team is still young and is having trouble away from the dome. Of the nine games played this season, Atlanta has had only one really good game and that was at San Francisco but that was an aberration. The Falcons have been outgained in five of the other eight games and in the other three games where they won the yardage differential, those totals were by 22, 5 and 20 yards. As you can tell, it has been not even close to dominant. Part of the problem was last year’s savior quarterback Matt Ryan. He is playing decent but his passer rating is only 78.8 on the season as he has completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes and tossed 12 interceptions. That is one more interception thrown than all of last season and now he will not have main running back Michael Turner to help out. Despite the recent struggles, the Giants are still ranked first in the NFL in total defense. They have been average at getting to the quarterback and Atlanta has done a great job in protecting Ryan and it is imperative for New York to get pressure to help out the secondary. Giants defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan probably will utilize lots of man and zone blitz schemes from all areas of the field to keep Ryan out of his comfort zone. On the other side, the Falcons defense is struggling as it is 24th in the NFL in total defense and they have been particularly weak against the run, allowing 130.3 ypg which is 25th in the league. The Giants running game is ranked seventh in the NFL so they will be able to take advantage and get the offense going once again as it has struggled to put up points the last three games. The Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games teams that are allowing 5.65 or more yppl under head coach Tom Coughlin so playing a bad defense can be exploited. Also they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a game where they outrushed the opponent by 75 or more yards. This should be the perfect spot for the Giants to back to its winning ways. 4* New York Giants
4:15p
Matt Fargo
PICK:Oakland Raiders: +9.0 () / 4 units
Now that JaMarcus Russell has been benched, it is an opportunity once again to take the Raiders. I took them in a similar spot with Russell at quarterback so I will definitely be taking them again in a similar situation without him in the lineup. Oakland dropped another game last week against Kansas City that it could have won. The Raiders have lost two straight games by eight points or fewer ever since getting pounded by the Jets so they have been competitive and have not mailed it in for the year. Oakland has covered four of its nine games this season including two of five at home and those two came against the two best teams on the schedule that came to visit in Philadelphia and San Diego. It is pretty clear that Oakland plays up or down to the competition. The Bengals are coming off a monster win in Pittsburgh, sweeping the Steelers in the process, and coming closer to grabbing the AFC North title. The win was actually the second big one in a row as they defeated Baltimore at home prior to that and Cincinnati is now 5-0 in the division with a change to finish a perfect 6-0 as it faces Cleveland at home next week. That makes a trip to the west coast the last thing on their minds as the division record is the first tiebreaking factor used and a 6-0 record obviously cannot be beat. When I bet against the Eagles out in Oakland a month ago, a lot of the situations were similar as we had an east coast team going west in a game it wanted nothing to do with. After Cleveland, the Bengals host Detroit so from a confidence perspective, the Bengals are thinking 3-0 in the next three games without blinking an eye. One major factor is hurting the Bengals and that is Cedric Benson will not be in uniform this week due to a strained hip. He will be replaced by the newly signed Larry Johnson whose best years have come and gone. Benson is sixth in the NFL in rushing so his absence is huge especially going up against an Oakland defense that has been killed by the run. This would have been a big edge but not anymore and it may be up to Carson Palmer to win it and he has been having trouble as the passing offense is ranked only 19th in the NFL and he is averaging only 6.9 ypa which is 16th. Oakland has been decent against the pass and it has been really good in three of the last four games. The offenses faced have been average but the Bengals have scored 18 or fewer points in five of their nine games. On the other side, Oakland will pound it and try to establish some sort of a running game to keep Cincinnati off the field on offense. Those two recent Cincinnati wins puts Oakland into a great situation. Play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive wins as an underdog and that have a winning record on the season. This situation is 46-20 ATS (69.7 percent) since 1983. The logic is simple in that underdogs winning two straight games are in store for a letdown and that is what we have here. Cincinnati is the talk of the NFL right now and this is the perfect time to sell high. The Raiders keep another one within reach. 4* Oakland Raiders
4:15p
Matt Fargo
PICK:New England Patriots: -10.5 () / 5 units
I’ve been reading numerous articles pertaining to the Bill Belichick call against the Colts where he decided to go for it on fourth down instead of punting it. I for one thought it was a smart call and a good call as he was trying to win the game right there and then with his offense that had not been stopped all night. There are debates all over the joint and there are opinions that the defense was called out by Belichick saying that he had no choice because he had no trust in his defense and that this call could be a season ending one. Both of those answers are wrong and if anything, this is going to make this team even better. Had the Patriots won that game, this game would be a lot tougher call but coming off a loss, I will take my chances with the Patriots at home. Even bettering those chances is the fact that it is a revenge spot against a hated rival who is completely unraveling. The Jets took out New England in Week Two as they did not allow a touchdown in that game. After that came a win against Tennessee but it has been all downhill since as New York has lost five of its last six games. Four of those came by five points or fewer so it can be argued that the Jets record could be a lot better and I will not disagree with that. However, when these losses pile up, it makes it tougher to recover from and this is the last place that the Jets want to go right now to try and turn their season around. This is the first road test since October 12th when they traveled to Miami as since then there have been three home games, a bye and a trip to lowly Oakland. Watching networks like ESPN really solidifies the fact that people are more concerned about controversy than about reality. This Belichick decision has been the top story since it happened and quite honest, it is already getting old. The big storyline surrounding it is how it will affect the Patriots going forward and if there is one team in the NFL that can rebound and actually improve from it, it’s the Patriots. I certainly expect that here and with the division lead now just two games over Miami, New England knows it cannot slip up especially with a game at New Orleans on deck. The Patriots are 5-0 at home and with four of the final six games being on the road, a slip up here could be devastating. The Patriots are 4-1 this season against teams ranked outside the top ten and that one loss happened to come against the Jets. This game has been circled since that September 20th loss and not only because of the loss itself but because of what was said. The first time around for these two divisional rivals, the Jets relentlessly pressured Tom Brady and came out with the win. You can be sure that this game plan will not change, but the Patriots should be better equipped to handle the overload blitz and give to Brady enough protection to pick apart the Jets’ secondary. We have to remember that the first meeting was only the second game back for Brady after missing all of last season with a knee injury. It is safe to say he is now fully back as his passer rating of 100.6 is fifth in the NFL and four of his last six games have seen a passer rating of 100 or higher after not putting up an average rating of 79.3 through his first three games. His 53.1 rating against the Jets was easily the worst of the season and he no doubt knows it and he wants redemption probably more than anyone. The Patriots have a pretty bad recent record as double-digit favorites however they are 1-1 ATS this season with the lone loss coming by a half-point. Most of those losses came in late 2007 when New England was hit with some huge overinflated lines during its undefeated regular season. It closed 1-8 ATS that season. Coming off a loss, there are not many people I’d rather be behind than Belichick or Brady as the Patriots are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss. 5* New England Patriots
8:20p
Matt Fargo
PICK:Philadelphia Eagles: -3.0 () / 4 units
**4** NFL PRIMETIME ON NBC ***13-6 RUN*** The Eagles were a big disappointment last week in San Diego. After losing at home to Dallas and heading out west to avoid a similar outcome like the Raiders game, Philadelphia struggled when it mattered the most and dropped its second straight game. It was fortunate that the red hot Cowboys lost in Green Bay last week so it remains a game out of first place in the NFC East. The rest of the schedule is difficult so there is no spot for anymore letdowns and that definitely includes this week. Being favored on the road may not seem like the right line at first glace but the Eagles have been favored in three of their four road games, going 2-1 ATS with the lone loss coming in Oakland. Philadelphia has outgained six of nine opponents and it has not been outgained by more than 61 yards in those three games so the problem is not overall but when the team gets inside the redzone and that is explained further down. The Bears had every chance to win last Thursday night against the 49ers but the offense stalled once again and they managed a mere six points. It was the fifth time they have scored 17 or fewer points on the season and they now have to square off against a peeved off defense that allowed 31 points last week, the second most given up this season. Chicago’s last three wins have come against the Browns, Lions and Seahawks and those three teams are a combined 5-22 so that is not exactly the best résumé. How the Bears defeated the Steelers back in Week Two is beyond me. Philadelphia is ninth in total defense and 12th in scoring defense and the Bears have struggled against the upper end of the league hierarchy. Jay Cutler in particular has had a rough time but his offensive line is just as much to blame. Chicago is 30th in the NFL in rushing offense and that comes down to the execution of the offensive line. That line will face a plethora of blitzes from the Eagles who love bringing pressure and that is what gets Cutler in trouble. The Eagles outgained San Diego by 131 yards in that game but their redzone offense was horrific as they had to settle for three field goals in their first three drives inside the San Diego 20-yard line. This has been an issue all season as the Eagles are 11th worst in the league in touchdown percentage in the redzone. The good news is that the Bears have the second worst redzone defense in the NFL as they have allowed touchdowns in 70 percent of the possessions inside the 20-yard line. Philadelphia will be without Brian Westbrook again this week as he got another concussion and was limited against San Diego. That is not ideal but the Bears defense is not playing well against the team that can take advantage and the Eagles can do exactly that. The Eagles fall into a simple yet very effective angle. Play against home underdogs or that are only averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being a potent +9.2 ppg. Both teams are struggling right now but Philadelphia is in a much better position and the struggles are things that can actually be taken care of this week. 4* Philadelphia Eagles

[lincecum]

Wow! Very nice.