[LLXC]

Was probably posted already...

vegas-runner | NFL Total Sun, 11/22/09 - 1:00 PM ¶ƒ
triple-dime bet 419 SEA / 420 MIN Under 46.5 bodog
Analysis:

*** NFL "TRUE STEAM" 3* GAME OF THE WEEK *** ("11-3" the L3 Weeks..."69% ATS" Overall)



This is a classic example of the Outfits seeing so much Value in a Bet, that they didn't even see the need to allow the "Betting Public" to force the Bookmakers, to adjust the line...and ultimately get an even better Total to go Under, than what they bet it at...

Bottom Line, there is no doubt in any Bookmakers mind...of what side the Betting Public will be on...for the Total of this Match-Up...And if they are 100% sure that they will receive a lot of action on the Over as we approach, and on game-day...you can rest assured that the Wiseguys were aware of this as well...But yet they still went ahead and took this position, which guarantees us that it's a "TRUE STEAM" Bet...

More importantly, after speaking to some of those "runners" who actually move "Steam"...They all agreed that fortunately, the books receive so much more Public Money, than they do Wiseguy Money, on the NFL...that their respective Outfits were able to take a significant position on this wager...

This Total Opened at "47"...which is actually one of a handful of "Key Totals", due to the fact that there are plenty of combinations of Final Scores, that equal 47...And the books do not like coming off these Key Totals, anymore than they do the "Key Spreads"...So you can be sure that when they do, there is plenty of "Steam" behind it...

And that is the case for this game...Where the books went ahead and opened it up at 47, and were immediately forced to adjust down to 46...

Fortunately for us, the "TRUE STEAM" Bet that I believe offers up the most betting Value, based on my own Ratings/Lines...is in the NFL...Because as I stated above, the public money far outweighs the Wiseguy money...and therefore, as the public begins unloading on the Over...we will still have no problem finding a great line...

Let's go ahead and bet the UNDER 46.5 in this Match-Up...as our very 1st NFL "TRUE STEAM" BET OF THE WEEK...VR

[jonpistone2]

thanks so much for sharing LLXC ... is this his only pick of the day?? if he already has this play out---sounds like he expects this line to move down so its time to jump all over it...doesnt it??? thanks again!

[jonpistone2]

VR just added another 4* pick this morning...does anyone know what it is???

[LLXC]

Added..
vr 4 gom st louis 2 jets and 2 atl