[CMattis22]

Guaranteed Pick: Marc Lawrence

Game: LSU at Mississippi Nov 21 2009 3:30PM
Prediction: LSU
Reason: Play On: LSU (Game 359) Note: The 8-2 Tigers take on the 7-3 Rebels in a key SEC battle with the winner likely landing a BCS bowl bid. Last year a three-loss LSU squad hosted Ole Miss with visions of the same, only to suffer a 31-13 loss in Death Valley. As a result the Tigers ended up in the Chick-Fil-A-Bowl, quite a drop after having defeated Ohio State two years ago in the BCS championship game. Now with the shoe on the other foot, this becomes the prefect spot for Bengal revenge. They currently occupy the No. 8 spot in the current BCS rankings and only a loss will deny them a BCS bowl berth. Best of all, LSU brings an arsenal of ammo into this game. For openers, the Tigers are 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS as a dog off a spread loss when facing a sub .800 or opponent. Entering this season, since 2000, LSU has suffered 10 losses at home. They have been a dog twice when looking to avenge those defeats: in 2002 when they won at Florida, 36-7 taking 8.5 points, and in 2004 when the won again at Florida, 24-21 taking 3 points. On the flip side, Ole Miss head coach Houston Nutt is just 1-5 ATS in his career as a conference favorite versus an .800 or greater opponent, including 0-4 ATS when not off a spread loss. The clincher is a trio of awesome angles from our data base that all come together in this contest. The first system tells us to: Play On any Game Three or greater road dog of less than eight points off a spread loss that allows less than 14 PPG on the season that was favored by more than 13 points in its last game if they won six or more games last season and are facing an opponent that scored 38 or more points in its last game in which the opponent did not lose to the spread by 11 or more points. Teams in this role are 18-0 ATS since 1980. The second system says to: Play On any road dog of 7 or less points off a win-no-cover as a favorite of 17 or more points in its last game if they did not lose to the spread by 18 or more points versus an opponent off back-to-back wins that did not cover the spread by 20 or more points in its last game. These road dogs are 14-0-1 ATS since 1980. Finally, the third tells us to: Play Against any favorite of 24 or less points off back-to-back wins, the last off a SU and ATS conference victory in which they did not cover the spread by 20 or more points, versus an opponent that allows less than 40 PPG on the season if the favorite was a winning team last year and was a losing team each of the preceding three seasons (two or more games under .500 each year). That's because these 'Play Against pretenders are 0-16 ATS. With LSU's two losses this season coming against No. 1 ranked Florida and No. 2 ranked Alabama (by 10 and 9 points, respectively), look for the Tigers to get their revenge and eventually move on to a BCS bowl with a win here today. We recommend a 10-unit play on LSU.

[lincecum]

Nice pick!

[CMattis22]

i'll be on it as well!!

[CMattis22]

thanks for the points lincecum!! I appreciate it

[iceminers26]

[LLXC]

marc lawrence
5* ucla bruins (cfb)
4* indiana hoosiers (cfb)
3* michigan wolverines (cfb)
3* oregon ducks (cfb)
air force falcons (cfb)
minnesota golden gophers (cfb)

[Durden]

I'll never greif cappers on guaranteed picks, if they refund my money if they are wrong that is fair enough.

[Ericg320]

This is his GOY. Marc is documented 24-8-1 in his career on his top-rated 1 For what it's worth

[Scorpion]

Play On any Game Three or greater road dog of less than eight points off a spread loss that allows less than 14 PPG on the season that was favored by more than 13 points in its last game if they won six or more games last season and are facing an opponent that scored 38 or more points in its last game in which the opponent did not lose to the spread by 11 or more points. Teams in this role are 18-0 ATS since 1980. The second system says to: Play On any road dog of 7 or less points off a win-no-cover as a favorite of 17 or more points in its last game if they did not lose to the spread by 18 or more points versus an opponent off back-to-back wins that did not cover the spread by 20 or more points in its last game. These road dogs are 14-0-1 ATS since 1980. Finally, the third tells us to: Play Against any favorite of 24 or less points off back-to-back wins, the last off a SU and ATS conference victory in which they did not cover the spread by 20 or more points, versus an opponent that allows less than 40 PPG on the season if the favorite was a winning team last year and was a losing team each of the preceding three seasons (two or more games under .500 each year).

lol

thanks