Doc Sports FootBall Week of November 19th (NEED POINTS) “The Magnificent 7” Saturday, November 21st, 2009
6 Unit Play. #36 Take Northwestern +7 over Wisconsin (Saturday 3:30 pm Big Ten Network) Top Play of the Weekend. I thought that this line would come in around 4 points, but it came in at 6 and now the public has drove it up to around a touchdown. No question that the Badgers have been playing inspired since they suffered back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Iowa. That being said, those were the only two good teams that they have played this season and they caught Purdue at the right time and struggled to put away Indiana on the road. In fact, Indiana passed for 300 yards and look for QB Kafka to have similar success against a Badgers secondary that is still unproven.
Wisconsin has had success on the ground. However, the Cats run defense will key on them and make QB Tolzien beat them through the air. This is the last home game of the season for Northwestern and they have won this type of game the last five years. Traditionally the Badgers have had trouble playing in Northwestern and to me this line is inflated. Have to side with the Wildcats getting a touchdown in the final game of their season. Coach Fitzgerald does a great job with this program and I will call the upset. Northwestern 31, Wisconsin 28.
5 Unit Play. #28 Take Michigan +12 over Ohio State (Saturday 12 pm ABC) Top Big 10 Play. Always have to throw out the record when these two match up and this will be the second straight year Ohio State enters as a double digit favorite. So what is different about the 2009 meeting? The Buckeyes are not the team of 2008. Granted, they will win the Big Ten and go to the Rose Bowl but this is a perfect spot for a letdown. Coach Rodriguez is on the hot seat and Michigan must win this game to avoid being bowless for a second straight year. Coach Carr was very successful at Michigan but struggled beating Ohio State once John Cooper left Columbus. Coach Rodriquez was brought in to win this game and this is his first chance to beat them in Ann Arbor.
In 2008, Michigan lost 42-7 to Ohio State and now many wonder if this was the right coaching hire. Because of this, the game means at lot more to Michigan, especially the seniors and the coaching staff. Michigan certainly does not have the talent of the Buckeyes. However, this is a big flat spot. The homer gets the call, as Michigan puts a major scare into the Buckeyes. Ohio State 24, Michigan 17.
5 Unit Play. #30 Take Michigan State +3 over Penn State (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) Top Underdog Play. In a weak conference we will side with another team getting points playing their final home game of the season. Thought that MSU would have a chance to win the Big Ten. However, as in past years, they found a way to lose some close games. Looking at Penn State, they are very similar to other teams in the Big Ten. They just are not as strong in 2009 and getting crushed by Ohio State two weeks ago shot down any chance for a BCS Bowl. The last three years the Lions have lost their last road game of the season. In 2007, they played Michigan State and lost that game, 35-31, as a slight favorite.
As for the Spartans, they are 8-1 ATS in the last home game of the season the last nine years. Look for this year’s meeting to be very similar. Michigan State, like Michigan, has a lot more to play for, as a win here will give them a better bowl. Yet another homer gets the call in the Big Ten, as we call the upset. MSU 31, PSU 28.
4 Unit Play. #61 Take Kentucky +8 over Georgia (Saturday 7:45 pm ESPN 2) The Wildcats and the Bulldogs usually play each other in November and this year Kentucky finally has the depth to stay with them. Kentucky has survived this season and is now playing their best football. The rushing attack is solid and QB Hartline has been playing well completing close to 60% of his passes. Their defense has also improved over the course of the 2009 season and they should be able to keep this a low scoring affair. The last three years the final score has been close between these two clubs and I see this one going down to the wire as well. The Wildcats need this victory to ensure they go bowling this season and I will call the upset. Kentucky 24, Georgia 21.
4 Unit Play. #80 Take Clemson -21 over Virginia (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) What a turnaround for the 2009 Clemson Tigers! After their first five games, they sported a 2-3 record. Now they have reeled off five straight victories and scored 38 or more points in each of those games. RB Spiller has been outstanding since his return and a win in this game will give them a spot in the ACC Championship Game. They will accomplish this since Virginia enters having lost four straight games and I see no way that they will be able to hang with the Tigers in Death Valley. This will be another blowout loss for Virginia. Clemson 42, Virginia 10.
4 Unit Play. #86 Take Middleton Tennessee State -10 over Arkansas State (Saturday 4:30 pm ESPN 360) This one features two teams going in opposite directions. The Red Wolves looked real good against Iowa early in the season but will enter this game having lost three straight. They lost last week at Florida Atlantic, 35-18. The Blue Raiders are hot, as the play of QB Dasher has been outstanding. He can beat you through the air or on the ground, as he is the leading rusher with over 800 yards. Not only has the offense looked good, but the defense has also been outstanding. Revenge will be big here, as MTS lost last year, 31-14, denying them a bowl bid. Blue Raiders success continues in a big way. MTS 41, Ark St 17.
4 Unit Play. #100 Take Arizona +6 over Oregon (Saturday 8 pm ABC) The Oregon Ducks are one of the surprise clubs in college football this season. Returning only nine starters and a new coach, they have done a great job of reloading. As for the Wildcats, their season has been successful but the loss to California last week stung. I do see them rebounding here and if they can win it, there is a possibility they could go to the Rose Bowl for the first time in their history.
Certainly have to side with the homer getting points. The talent is equal and I believe that the Cats have the edge on defense. I have always been successful late in the season with home dogs in this type of situation. Yet another underdog wins their last home game of the season. U of A 27, Oregon 23.
5 Unit Play. #114 Take San Francisco +7 over Green Bay (Sunday 1 pm Fox) Top Play of the Week. The 49ers have played the NFC North tough this season, beating the Bears last week and only a fluke play kept them from beating the Vikings in Week 3 of the season. The 49ers are catching the Packers at the right time since they are coming off an emotional victory over Dallas and must play four days later in Detroit on Thanksgiving. San Francisco will enter this game with three days extra rest since they played on Nov.12. Expect another low scoring game and getting around a touchdown is just too good to pass up. I just do not believe that the Packers defense can play at the level that they did against Dallas one week ago. Dallas really threw in the towel when Marc Colombo went down with an injury last week. San Francisco takes this game down to the wire and we will come out on top with whoever emerges victorious. Green Bay 20, San Francisco 17.
4 Unit Play. #122 Take Over 46 in Atlanta @ New York (Sunday 1 pm Fox) Top NFL Totals Play. We used the over with the Falcons last week and will ride this horse again in this critical game for both teams Sunday at the Meadowlands in East Rutherford, NJ. The Falcons have trouble stopping teams and expect QB Manning to pick apart the 28th-rated pass defense. Atlanta will also be without Michael Turner, who is out with an ankle injury. Without him expect the Falcons to pass more and the clock will be stopped a lot more, setting up a nice play with the over. The Falcons have gone over five of their last six games and this one will follow suit as well. New York 37, Atlanta 17.
4 Unit Play. #127 Take San Diego -3 over Denver (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) The Chargers have caught the Broncos in the standings after trailing them by three games three weeks ago. Now they have a chance to put them in their rear view mirror with a victory this Sunday at Invesco Field in Denver, CO. The Broncos started off 6-0 and now have lost three straight games and a loss here could bury them. QB Orton will likely play in this game, but I do not think he will be able to turn the tide back to a favorable direction. Denver got a kick return and a punt return for a touchdown in the first meeting and that will not happen in this game. QB Rivers has played outstanding since his loss to Denver with a 9-3 touchdown to interception ratio. The Chargers take back the division and we collect big in the process as well. San Diego 24, Denver 14.
4 Unit Play. #135 Take Tennessee +5 over Houston (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Titans have righted the ship and will enter this AFC South battle having won three straight games to improve to 3-6 on the season. In those three victories the Titans have run the ball for an average of over 200 yards per game. Tennessee has covered against Houston in five of their last six meetings and getting over a field goal is too good to pass up. QB Young does not put up impressive stats but he does win ball games and that is what they quarterback position is all about. Houston is coming off a bye and expect them to be a little rust early in the game much like the Minnesota Vikings showed last week against Detroit. Tennessee gets out to an early lead and hangs on for the victory winning for the fourth time in their last four games. Tennessee 28, Houston 27.
Docsports 11/21
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