For North Carolina State to be three touchdown underdogs in conference play this late in the season shows how far they have sunk from the days of Phillip Rivers and Co. The win over Pittsburgh seems like it happened years ago and the prospects of a bowl game have disappeared for the Wolfpack, as it’s up to head coach Tom O’Brien to motivate his players to compete in these last two games. O’Brien isn’t on the hot seat and similarly to last week’s Syracuse-Louisville game, the players who are coming back next season will have to play hard, decreasing the chances of a no-show. Virginia Tech can’t win the ACC and are going to settle for a mid-level bowl, which has to be considered a disappointment for the preseason favorite and dark horse National Title contender. With both teams going up against each other with very little but pride at stake, the statistics compiled thus far mean a lot more than games with extra motivators. The saving grace for North Carolina State has been the play of QB Russell Wilson, who has thrown for 26 touchdowns, tops in the ACC, and 2534 yards with a 58% completion percentage. Wilson and RB Toney Baker have led North Carolina State to the ACC’s fourth best points per game mark at 32.6. Having an offense that can produce when getting 21 points is extremely important, as it leaves the door open for backdoor covers and shootouts where touchdowns are simply traded all game long. Virginia Tech will move the ball against the atrocious North Carolina State defense that gives up 31 points a game. Nevertheless, Va Tech is laying too many points to a potent offense. “Beamer Ball” calls for defense and special teams to score and if that’s how Virginia Tech is going to put points on the scoreboard this Saturday, one would have to feel confident in having a three touchdown cushion. Play: North Carolina State +21 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
California +7½ over STANFORD
You have to give all the respect to the Stanford Cardinal for what they have accomplished this season. After going 5-7 last season, Stanford is 7-3 thus far and is in great position to play in this years Rose Bowl. Jim Harbaugh has put his name among the elite in College Football and has his team playing at a level that hasn’t been seen in years. Perhaps the most impressive feat of all was humiliating USC 55-21 on the road, a result so shocking that many observers dubbed an error upon first glance. Stanford’s victory was by far the biggest this decade and without a doubt the biggest win this season. California meanwhile is having a respectable season that had potential to be special if not for the loss of Javhid Best, who at the time of his injury was considered the leading Heisman Trophy candidate. California is coming off a big win over 18th ranked Arizona, completing a fourth quarter comeback to win 24-16. California quarterback Kevin Reilly has thrown 15 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions and RB Shane Vereen has filled in admirably for Best, averaging 5.2 yards per carry to keep California’s running game effective. There are really only two angles to play this game at; if you believe Stanford is for real and can play with giant targets on their backs, lay the points. Stanford hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2001 and their players are competing in completely different conditions than they have ever played in. The number of teams who have had gigantic wins one week and then crashed the next are seemingly endless and I think Stanford will lay a giant egg playing as the hunted. I’ll play that angle and call the outright upset but will gladly take the points with a strong, trustworthy California team. Play: California +7½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Sports Wager 11/21
Reply With Quote