Rutgers 34 - SYRACUSE 10 - (3:30 EST) -- Line opened at Rutgers minus 7½, and is now minus 8½. No
questioning the improvement of this year's 'Cuse edition, despite their 3-7 record. Hiring of
Marrone was a major plus, & will play out in the won/loss column in the near future. However,
the name of the game is numbers, & Syracuse's thin squad is losing the war of attrition,
with major injuries taking their toll. Throw in the fact that a bowl is now out of the
question. Enter the 7-2 Knights, who are once again in a late season rush, with a 31-0 rout
(32-pt cover) of a solid SoFlorida squad just the latest. They ran the table down the stretch
a year ago, own the Orange, & with the spot in the TD range, just can't ignore it.
RATING: RUTGERS 89
STANFORD 45 - California 16 - (7:30) -- Line opened at Stanford minus 6½, and is now minus 7. As we
wrote earlier on Pointwise, we've had this one circled for a month, & are simply shocked that
the line has come in at this low a number, especially with the previously unnoticed Cardinal
entering off that complete annihilation of USC (55-21, 44½ pt cover). And now Stanford
returns home, where it has been absolutely superb, covering 10 straight. In Gerhart, they
have the 3rd most prolific runner in the land, & Luck has now risen to 11th spot among the
nation's QBs. Cal is hurting, & hasn't impressed in a month. Revenge.
RATING: STANFORD 89
CLEMSON 48 - Virginia 13 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 19, and is now minus 19½. The Tigers
have always been a streak team, & with that being the case, it's about time that we jumped
on this rolling juggernaut. Five straight wins; four straight covers; at least 40 pts in each of
their last 4 games; rushing for 252, 242, & 254 yds the last 3 weeks; covering their last 4
games by a combined 54½ pts; the #12 defense in the nation, etc, etc. And this week, they
host a Virginia squad which has dropped 4 straight, by a combined score of 128-53 (0-3-1
ATS), & finds itself out of the bowl picture. Can see no other result here.
RATING: CLEMSON 88
TENNESSEE 30 - Vanderbilt 3 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 16, and is now minus 17. The
rule in this series used to be simple. If the Vols were headed to a bowl, then the 'Dores were
a nice play as a solid underdog, with Tennessee looking past them. But if UT had failed to
secure a bowl shot, then they were loaded for bear, & would take out frustrations with a
thrashing of the always inferior Vandy. Not the case anymore, with the proliferation of bowl
games, but with the Vols at 5-5, this has become a full-focused affair. One of the top defenses
in the nation, vs a squad averaging just 8 ppg in SEC play. Got the picture?
RATING: TENNESSEE 88
NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - Atlanta 13 - (1:00) -- Line opened at NewYork minis 7, and is still minus 7. Oh,
how the Giants needed that bye week. They were approaching the basket-case stage, with
4 consecutive losses, after opening with 5 wins. And to make matters worse, their topranked
defense was suddenly a sieve, allowing more than 33 ppg in those 4 losses. However,
those setbacks all came vs quality foes, so it's hardly time to push the panic button.
The Falcons have dropped their last 4 road games, RB Turner is doubtful, and QB Ryan has
thrown at least 1 interception in each of his last 6 contests. Bouncbacker!
RATING: NEW YORK GIANTS 88
New Orleans 41 - TAMPA BAY 17 - (1:00) -- Line opened at NewOrleans minus 11½, and is still minus 11½.
The Saints exploded onto the NFL scene this season, with blowout wins in their first 6 games,
winning by an average score of 40-21, & covering all six. Well, things have certainly quieted
down, spreadwise, but NewOrleans is still unscathed straightup. But last week's narrow
escape at 1-8 StLouis has to serve as a wakeup call. They have won their last 4 road
games by a combined 98 pts straightup, & Reggie is becoming a force. (13.8 yds per carry
last wk). Will be ready for Bucs, who upset GreenBay in last hoster.
RATING: NEW ORLEANS 88
These college best bets are made several days in advance of the day they will be played and it is suggested that you reconfirm them with a toll free call to 1-800-755-2255. I reserve the right to change any of them if the situation merits. Using them is quite easy. Simply compare with projected margin of victory, compare it to the actual betting line and bet accordingly. Home team in CAPS. Legend: SU—Straight Up. ATS—Against The Spread. 2009 record in parenthesis.
Thursday, Nov. 19
OKLAHOMA STATE by 21 over Colorado (ESPN)
Friday, Nov. 20
BOWLING GREEN by 7 over Akron
TOLEDO by 24 over Eastern Michigan
Boise State by 27 over UTAH STATE
Saturday, Nov. 21
Rutgers (7-2) by 31 over SYRACUSE (2-8)—This game is the story of one team with a ton of talent and finally playing at the top of its game meeting a team with some talent, absolutely no depth and finding it more difficult each week to survive. Rutgers was somewhat of an unknown for the first half of the season but signaled the world it was back and up to speed this past week when it buried a good South Florida team, 31-0. Syracuse comes into this game off a heart-breaking 10-9 loss at Louisville in a game it had numerous opportunities to win—and you could tell it really hurt. The Orange have scored an average of just 8.7 points in each of their last three games and are simply up against it in this one against a lightning fast Rutgers team that shows no mercy to anyone.
FLORIDA STATE (5-5) by 28 over Maryland (2-8)—It is now or probably never for Florida State and its bowl hopes if it does not get the job done in this one. It should be as easy as it looks against a Maryland team that is young, mistake-prone, out of sync and with not one single game-breaking player. In other words it is not an accident the Terrapins are 2-8. FSU, which will be a big underdog at Florida next week, and that means it must get win number six in this one or not go bowling. With that incentive driving the Seminoles, who won at Wake Forest, 41-28, as a 4 ½-point underdog last week, has the talent to take care of business, and will.
MISSOURI (6-4) by 21 over Iowa State (6-5)—One can only ask where Missouri has been hiding wide-receiver Danario Alexander this season. Danario caught 10 passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 38-12 win at Kansas State, giving him 414 yards receiving in the past two games. It is obvious he has given the up-and-down Tigers the boost they needed to put their season back together and my money says Iowa State won’t be able to stop him and quarterback Blaine Gabbart this week. Iowa State is a much-improved team and does own a 9-7 road win over Nebraska, but the Cyclones do not have an offense to keep with what has become a very explosive Missouri team.
TEMPLE (8-2) by 10 over Kent State (5-4)—Temple remains one of the most under-rated teams in the country and that is why the Owls are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. No one believes this former college football doormat can be this good, but let me assure you it is. Temple goes for its 9th straight win against a solid Kent State team and will not have an easy time of it but, in the end, The Owls talent, depth and speed should prevail. Temple comes into this game off a 56-17 win at Akron last week, while Kent arrives in Philadelphia off a much-needed bye week. As amazing as it might sound to some football pundits, Temple, which has shown dramatic growth and improvement under 4th-year coach Al Golden has a chance to go 10-2 this season.
MICHIGAN STATE (7-4) by 13 over Penn State (9-2)—This is one of those games where I just have a gut feeling Michigan State is going to fire its best shot and win with a certain degree of ease. The Nittany Lions overcame four first-half fumbles last week to finally get the win over a dramatically inferior Indiana team, 31-20, and obviously was much the best to do that. With that said, it must be noted Penn State is 9-2 only because it has played a powder puff schedule that includes the likes of Akron, Syracuse and Eastern Illinois. When it has played a good Big Ten team, it has been crushed, losing at Iowa, 21-10, and two games back at home to Ohio State, 24-7. Michigan State is a good Big Ten team and would like nothing better than to close out its season with a win that would upgrade its bowl position. My money says the Spartans will do just that.
HOUSTON (8-2) by 35 over Memphis (2-8)—A down-and-out Memphis football team that has beaten only 1-AA Tennessee-Martin and Texas-El Paso and seen its coach fired two weeks ago has gone from the frying pan into the fire for this one, after losing last week at home to UAB, 31-21. The Tigers are catching Houston coming off an upset 37-32 loss at Central Florida and in a major bounce-back mode. UCF got the money against Houston because it did one thing few teams can do—keep the ball away from Cougar quarterback Case Keenum and the explosive offense he leads. Central Florida had the ball for 39.30 of the 60-minute game against Houston and it worked. Unfortunately Memphis does not have the talent to do that and there is no way the Tigers are going to out-shoot Houston. It should be a blowout.
UL-MONROE (6-4) by 14 over UL-Lafayette (6-4)—This is the most important game UL-Monroe (6-4) has played since it became a member of the NCAA 1-A ranks in 1994. A win in this spot will guarantee the Warhawks have their first winning season since leaving 1-AA and, more than that, will more than likely get them their first-ever bowl bid. There is little question in my mind UL-Monroe will get the win and it has far more to do with talent than it does incentive. The Warhawks are a very decent football team and it must be pointed out their four losses have come at Texas, at Arizona State, at Kentucky and at Troy. Coach Charlie Weatherbie’s time has come.
Best Of The Rest
OHIO by 3 over Northern Illinois
CLEMSON by 21 over Virginia
Wisconsin by 13 over NORTHWESTERN
IOWA by 17 over Minnesota
SOUTH FLORIDA by 14 over Louisville
INDIANA by 4 over Purdue
North Carolina by 7 over BOSTON COLLEGE
VIRGINIA TECH by 21 over N.C. State
Vanderbilt by 3 over TENNESSEE
Kentucky by 7 over GEORGIA
TCU by 31 over Wyoming
*ARKANSAS by 9 over Mississippi State
Oregon State by 42 over WASHINGTON STATE
UCLA by 3 over Arizona State
STANFORD by 7 over California
LSU by 3 over MISSISSIPPI
BYU by 17 over Air Force
EAST CAROLINA by 7 over UAB
Kansas State by 6 over NEBRASKA
Texas Tech by 10 over OKLAHOMA
Baylor by 6 over TEXAS A&M
Rice by 1 over UTEP
UTAH by 24 over San Diego State
FRESNO STATE by 15 over Louisiana Tech
Colorado State by 7 over NEW MEXICO
ARIZONA by 3 over Oregon
SMU by 3 over MARSHALL
SOUTHERN MISS by 10 over Tulsa
TEXAS by 45 over Kansas
MIAMI by 20 over Duke
CENTRAL FLORIDA by 35 over Tulane
Nevada by 42 over NEW MEXICO STATE
Hawaii by 21 over SAN JOSE STATE
FLORIDA by 55 over Florida International
Army by 10 over NORTH TEXAS
TROY by 14 over Florida Atlantic
MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 13 over Arkansas State
NFL BEST BETS
These NFL best bets are made several days in advance of the day they will be played and it is suggested that you reconfirm them with a toll free call to 1-800-755-2255. I reserve the right to change any of them if the situation merits. Using them is quite easy. Simply compare with projected margin of victory, compare it to the actual betting line and bet accordingly. Home team in CAPS. Legend: SU—Straight Up. ATS—Against The Spread.
Sunday, Nov. 22
Steelers by 28 over CHIEFS—The Steelers, who lost at home last week, 18-12, to the Cincinnati Bengals, are not going to be in a benevolent frame of mind when they take the field at Arrowhead against a Kansas City team that is coached by a fool. If Pittsburgh did not need to put itself back on track, the Steelers would still be a very tough opponent for Kansas City. The Chiefs, who on offense average but 15.8 points and 257.8 yards per game, will have the task of trying to move the ball against a Pittsburgh defense that is quick to the ball and gives up nothing.
VIKINGS by 17 over Seahawks—The Minnesota Vikings (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) are on a roll and have every single edge over the Seahawks in this one. Ageless quarterback Brett Favre has never played better—and I mean just that—and the Vikings have a chemistry on both offense and defense that is a weapon within itself. Seattle certainly has room to improve but went 0-3 in their first three games on the road this season and in this contest will be playing its second straight away game and its third road game in its last four.
PATRIOTS by 21 over Jets—The New York Jets were certainly brought back to earth last week when the fell at home to Jacksonville, 24-22. It was their second straight loss and served as a wake-up call that all that talk about the playoffs was just that—talk. New York opened the season 3-0 but has since gone 1-5, with the lone win coming at Oakland. New England beat the Jets, 16-9, at The Meadowlands earlier in the season and New England is a much better team now than it was then. Now factor into the equation the dislike Pats Coach Bill Belichick has for the Jets and the New Yorkers figure to be in for a long afternoon.
Bengals by 24 over RAIDERS—As noted elsewhere in this publication, the 7-2 Bengals are for real. Not only are they getting it done with a very sophisticated offense led by quarterback Carson Palmer, the Bengals have come up with one of the best defenses in the NFL, giving up just 16.9 points and 325.5 yards per game—and those numbers came against some of the best the league has to offer. This is a game in which talent and discipline trumps anything the Raiders bring to the game. For the record, Cincinnati is going for its 6th straight road win.
Best Of The Rest
JAGUARS by 10 over Bills
RAVENS by 3 over Colts
GIANTS by 4 over Falcons
PACKERS by 7 over 49ers
COWBOYS by 13 over Redskins
Saints by 14 over BUCS
Cardinals by 10 over RAMS
Chargers by 7 over BRONCOS
BEARS by 4 over Eagles
COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST BETS
These college basketball best bets are made several days in advance of the day they will be played and it is suggested that you reconfirm them with a toll free call to 1-800-755-2255. I reserve the right to change any of them if the situation merits. Using them is quite easy. Simply compare with projected margin of victory, compare it to the actual betting line and bet accordingly. Home team in CAPS. Legend: SU—Straight Up. ATS—Against The Spread.
Friday, Nov. 20
MICHIGAN STATE by 35 over Toledo—Toledo just lost at home to Eastern Illinois, 72-62, and now heads into East Lansing to take on a top five Michigan State team that has announced to the world it does not intend to begin this season slowly—something that has plagued it in the past. Just do the math.
Saturday, Nov. 21
Long Beach State by 12 over WIS-GREEN BAY—Long Beach State is absolutely loaded, with four starters back from last year’s 15-15 team, a top ten recruiting class and a coach (Dan Monson) who is among the best and there is no reason to think the 49ers won get it done against a rebuilding Green Bay squad.
PENN by 20 over Delaware—Penn has one of the best backcourts in the East with guards Zack Rosen and Tyler Benardini, a solid front line and the home court. The Quakers do not qualify as world-beaters but they have enough to handle a Delaware team that has its troubles on the road.
TULSA by 18 over South Alabama—This is the best Tulsa team since Tubby Smith was holding court with the Hurricane and its speed, talent and depth should provide a rather easy win over a South Alabama that is just finding its way with a host of new players.
VCU by 8 over Oklahoma—VCU is one of college basketball’s real sleepers, has one of the strongest home court bias figures in the business and will come out firing its best shot to get a little respect by beating a name team.
MOREHEAD STATE by 12 over LA-Monroe—Monroe returns all five starters from last year’s 10-20 team and will most certainly be much better this time around. That will help a little bit but Morehead State has quality talent, great coaching and the home court.
Sunday, Nov. 22
CREIGHTON by 20 over Ark-Little Rock—Creighton showed just how tough it was when it opened the season at Dayton against the best Flyer team in decades and took them right to the money before losing by 10. The Blue Jays are loaded and should have little trouble with an Arkansas-Little Rock team that simply does not have a lot of talent.
NEW MEXICO by 17 over Miami-OH—This is supposed to be a rebuilding year in Albuquerque but I don‘t buy it. New Mexico has enough talent returning from last year’s 22-12 team to give anybody trouble—and the Lobos have had an excellent recruiting years. Miami gave some indications in a season-open loss at Towson that it might be in for a long season.
Monday, Nov. 23
SAINT MARY’S-CAL by 30 over Cal Poly—It is obvious Saint Mary’s has simply reloaded again and is on track for another outstanding season and this game should be little more than a scrimmage for the Gaels against a Cal Poly team that has won just 19 games over the past two seasons.
MURRAY STATE by 23 over Florida International—Murray State has four starters back from last year’s 20-16 team, are again ready to challenge for the OVC championship and have ever single edge over a Florida International team that has little quality talent.
Tuesday, Nov. 24
WRIGHT STATE by 10 over Central Michigan—Wright State is another team that has the talent to beat most of the mediocre teams on its schedule. The Raiders showed in a narrow 74-69 loss at powerful Washington that they can stay with the best. Central Michigan is a bit of a mystery right now but the figures say Wright State by 10.
EASTERN KENTUCKY by 14 over Cal-Irvine—Eastern Kentucky fields a veteran team that is much better than last year’s 18-13 unit and should parlay its outstanding defense to an impressive win over a Cal-Irvine team that seldom wins on the road.
UTAH STATE by 30 over Idaho State—Utah State has simply reloaded again and has another outstanding basketball team. The Aggies have three big things going for them in this game. First of all, there are few tougher home courts to play on than Utah State’s home court—the 10,270-seat Dee Glen Smith Spectrum in Logan. Then there is the simple fact Idaho State does not have the kind of talent it takes to stay with a good team such as the Aggies. Last, but not least, Idaho State is a terrible road team.
NBA BEST BETS
These NBA best bets are made several days in advance of the day they will be played and it is suggested that you reconfirm them with a toll free call to 1-800-755-2255. I reserve the right to change any of them if the situation merits. Using them is quite easy. Simply compare with projected margin of victory, compare it to the actual betting line and bet accordingly. Home team in CAPS. Legend: SU—Straight Up. ATS—Against The Spread.
Friday, Nov. 20
HAWKS by 10 over Rockets—Atlanta opened the season 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS and, despite that, still remain the most under-rated team in the NBA. The Hawks have all the edges in this one.
CELTICS by 8 over Magic—The aging Celtics are showing signs of wear and have turned up to heat to work through their recent lapses. They won’t waste anytime showing a national TV (ESPN) audience that they are not going away.
MAVERICKS by 12 over Kings—Dallas won’t mind the improving Kings a pushover but should get the win in this one. Dallas has the talent, is extremely tough at home and is playing a team that is just 1-3 on the road this season.
Saturday, Nov. 21
SPURS by 15 over Wizards—The Spurs seldom get beat at home by good teams and almost never by bad ones—and Washington qualifies in the latter category. Every year—for at least the past 15 years—this is supposed to be the one for the Wizards and it does not happen.
Jazz by 14 over Pistons—The Utah Jazz got off to a dreadful start but seemed to wake up on their recent road trip and should have little trouble in manhandling a Detroit team that has been slowed by injuries and a genuine lack of talent.
TRAIL BLAZERS by 23 over Timberwolves—Portland is playing outstanding basketball right now and is meeting a Minnesota team that has little offense. The Timberwolves opened the season 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS and arrive in Portland averaging just 90.2 points per game
Sunday, Nov. 22
HEAT by 12 over Hornets—The Miami Heat are playing top-flight basketball right now and are meeting a New Orleans Hornets team that is in a shambles because of the stupidity of their owner. He has fired a coach the team loved, replaced him with the general manager and has destroyed the morale of what could be a good NBA team.
LAKERS by 11 over Thunder—Oklahoma City is the most improved team in the NBA and showed just how much better it is last week by handing the San Antonio Spurs their first home loss of the season. That most certainly served as a wake-up call for the Lakers who will be ready.
NO SURPRISE HERE AS 10-0 TEXAS, FLORIDA
ALABAMA, TCU RANKED 1-2-3-4 IN NCAA DEFENSE
Many give lip service to the importance of defense in college football but here the proof is in black and white. The top four teams in the BCS ratings—Texas, Florida, Alabama and TCU—are ranked 1-2-3-4 in total defense. The only other 10-0 team in the country, Boise State, holds down the 12th spot.
Of the top 25 teams in total defense, only two—Army (4-6) and Arizona State (4-6) have losing records.
Bettors tend to focus more on offense than defense but at this time of the season, when teams are battling for national honors to factor into the handicapping equation just how effective they are on defense.
For the record, I have Alabama ranked number one in my Top Ten on the basis of its defense. It is as good as I have ever seen and overall is better than that of higher ranked Texas and Florida and at least on par with TCU
CHRIS THOMAS’S OFFICIAL FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
3-1 Last Week
HIT STRONG…Colorado State (-4) over New Mexico…Lobos are ragged lone wolves this year. Rams make short work of them.
HIT MEDIUM…ARMY (+2 ½) over N. Texas. Cadets have running game and the tallest player in FBS Division Football. They can control this one and win outright.
HIT LIGHT…Ohio State (-12 ½) over Michigan. Hate to exploit the Rich Rod firing countdown (yeah, right. We just want the cash.), but Michigan has nothing to answer the Buckeyes running attack. This could get ugly early!
SUNDAY ADVANCE PLAY
ARIZONA (-9) over St. Louis… Cardinals have played their best games away from home. They have too much firepower for the Rams here.
NFL Over’s & Unders - A Total-ly Different Perspective - Part 1
For nearly three decades wagering on the total points scored in NFL games has increased greatly in popularity. Totals allow the handicapper to concentrate on the flow or pace of a game rather than which team will have greater success. Obviously there is much overlap between the quality of the teams involved and the total points that will be scored but by looking at a game from an Over/Under perspective several weaknesses in the Totals line can be exploited. Of paramount importance is a knowledge of 'key' numbers for Totals much as 'key' numbers are important from a regular pointspread perspective. Here's a look at the key numbers for total points scored in the 6,478 NFL regular season games played between 1981 and 2008.
Total Points
Pct.
Total Points
Pct.
Points Range
Pct.
37
4.80 %
33
3.12 %
0 - 21
6.48 %
41
3.87 %
27
3.04 %
22 - 33
24.15 %
51
3.55 %
45
2.99 %
34 - 41
22.50 %
30
3.37 %
47
2.96 %
42 - 51
24.63 %
44
3.21 %
34
2.93 %
52 +
22.24 %
The first part of the Chart shows the ten most common total points results over the past 28 seasons and the percentage of the time that each has occurred. For example, 37 total points is the most common result and it has occurred 4.80% of the time, or about one game in 20. The 10 most common results have accounted for 33.85% of all results. In other words, slightly more than one game in three will fall on one of these ten 'key' numbers. The right hand part of the Chart looks at how frequently the total points in a game falls within one of five ranges. About 1 game a week will feature total points of 21 or less while about 3 games each week will see 52 or more points scored. Next week we will present some interesting data which will show why wagering on Overs and Unders presents some very good opportunities based partly on the above data and also on how the linesmaker is restricted in setting lines for Totals.
The college season starts winding down as 14 teams end their regular season by playing for a twelfth straight week. This week we begin seeing many games involving traditional season ending rivals. Often the weaker team - the underdog - makes for a solid play in these games as they have a chance to salvage an otherwise disappointing season with a win over their most bitter foe. Bowl bids may be on the line for one or both teams and that adds to the intensity of the rivalry. That's part of the pageantry and great appeal of college football.
As the college season winds down the chase for a berth in the National Championship game becomes more in focus and the annual debates continue to rage. Currently it appears that the BCS Championship game will feature a matchup of Texas versus the winner of the SEC Championship game between Alabama and Florida barring any unexpected events. All three teams still have games remaining, including traditional season ending rivalries, but each will be solid favorites the rest of the way save for the Alabama/Florida matchup in which Florida is likely to be a 3 to 4 point favorite if both are still unbeaten.
The debates continue over the need and/or desire for a Playoff at the highest level of college football - the only segment of any NCAA sport that does not determine a champion on the field. The debate could intensify this season if, as is quite possible, as many as 5 FBS schools enter the Bowl season undefeated. In addition to Alabama, Florida and Texas 3 other schools enter the final weeks of the season with perfect records - Boise State, Cincinnati and TCU. Even without such an eventuality materializing, the time for a playoff has long since arrived. More on this topic in two weeks as we repeat our annual rant about this subject.
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: California + 7 over STANFORD - Stanford enters the "Big Game" with plenty of momentum following wins over Oregon and USC by a combined score 106-63, topping 50 points against each. Earlier Cal lost to both by a combined 72-6, dashing their hopes of a Rose Bowl season and once again disappointing those who seeming annually predict big things for the Cal program. But that's what makes rivalry games so special. The underdog, especially a talented one, generally has the greater motivation to either salvage their season or ruin their biggest foe's. Cal is without their best player, RB Best, but even in his absence defeated Rose Bowl contender Arizona last week. There are not too many negatives to cite about Stanford other than a letdown would not be a surprise following those two huge wins even against their most bitter of rivals. Cal has won 6 of the last 7 in the series (all as favorites) so Stanford will be motivated as well. Cal has a slightly better defense, especially against the run, the strength of Stanford's offense. Although an upset would not surprise , the call is for a close game, Stanford wins but by just 34-31.
Other Featured College Selections
Kentucky + 9 over GEORGIA - Both teams are 6-4 which represents a disappointing season for Georgia but a solid campaign for Kentucky. These teams have similar resumes including wins over Vanderbilt and Auburn and one sided losses to Florida. They are very similar statistically. On offense Kentucky has a better ground game while Georgia has been stronger through the air. Defensively Georgia is stronger against the run while Kentucky is better defending the pass. Georgia has dominated this series over the years but KY has been much more competitive of late, covering 2 of the last 3 with a straight up win. This is Georgia's weakest team since they were 8-4 in 2001. Kentucky is having a season similar to the last 3 seasons that have seen the Wildcats go to 3 straight Bowls. Both teams have traditional season ending games on deck and with these teams so evenly matched a close game should result. Georgia wins but by just 27-24.
BYU - 10 over Air Force - The Mountain West has unfolded pretty much as expected with TCU the clearly dominant team, followed by BYU and Utah and then a gap to Air Force and then a huge dropoff to the rest of the conference. BYU is 8-2 with one sided losses to TCU and Florida State, both of which have come on their home field. Air Force is enjoying a solid season and they gave TCU their toughest test, losing 20-17 at home despite being outgained by over 100 yards. The Force has played outstanding defense all season and value the football, losing just 7 turnovers all season. But BYU has dominated Air Force recently, winning 5 straight with each win by at least 14 points with an average score of 41-22. Even the past 2 seasons, when AF won 8 and 9 games, BYU defeated Air Force handily. There's too much of a talent edge for BYU. Air Force plays smartly and will hang tough for a while, but BYU ultimately creates distance. BYU wins 37-20.
HOUSTON - 24 over Memphis - Houston suffered only their second loss of the season last week and has a chance for a 10 win season with a win here and next week over Rice. The Cougars have fared well when stepping up in class this season with wins at Oklahoma State and Mississippi State and at home over Texas Tech. Memphis is 2-8 and fired coach West last week. His team responded with a flat effort in their final home game against UAB and it's hard to see the Tigers having any motivation as they play their final 2 games. Houston has a high powered, quick strike offense but their defense is very weak. But Memphis' offense has struggled all season to find consistency. The defense is allowing nearly 16 yards per completion, a sign of either poor positioning or poor tackling - or both! Memphis is 1-8 ATS - worst in the nation, clearly showing underachievement against expectations. Houston has the firepower to put points on the board and Memphis is likely to show little resistance. Once they fall behind they likely also lose interest. Houston wins 54-17.
Best of the Rest (Opinion)
BOWLING GREEN - 11 over Akron (Fri)
OHIO U Pick 'em over Northern Illinois
Wisconsin - 7 over NORTHWESTERN
IOWA - 10 over Minnesota
Rutgers - 8 over SYRACUSE
INDIANA + 3 over Purdue
VIRGINIA TECH - 21 over North Carolina State
MISSOURI - 15 over Iowa State
Vanderbilt + 16 1/1 over TENNESSEE
TEMPLE - 13 over Kent State
NOTRE DAME - 6 over Connecticut
Penn State - 3 over MICHIGAN STATE
MISSISSIPPI - 4 over Lsu
Kansas State + 16 over NEBRASKA
TEXAS TECH + 6 ½ over Oklahoma
Louisiana Tech + 10 over FRESNO STATE
NEW MEXICO + 4 ½ over Colorado State
ARIZONA + 6 over Oregon
Smu + 4 over MARSHALL
SOUTHERN MISS - 8 over Tulsa
FLORIDA - 45 over Florida International
TROY - 16 ½ over Florida Atlantic
UL Monroe - 2 over UL LAFAYETTE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE - 11 over Arkansas State
The Rest (Leans)
Central Michigan - 14 over BALL STATE (Wed)
MIAMI OHIO + 4 ½ over Buffalo (Wed)
OKLAHOMA STATE - 18 ½ over Colorado (Thur)
TOLEDO - 18 ½ over Eastern Michigan
UTAH STATE + 23 over Boise State (Fri)
MICHIGAN + 12 over Ohio State
Virginia + 21 over CLEMSON
Louisville + 12 over SOUTH FLORIDA
Maryland + 19 over FLORIDA STATE
BOSTON COLLEGE - 3 over North Carolina
WYOMING + 32 over Tcu
Mississippi State + 10 ½ over ARKANSAS
Oregon State - 30 over WASHINGTON STATE
Arizona State + 4 ½ over UCLA
EAST CAROLINA - 12 over Uab
Baylor + 7 ½ over TEXAS A&M
Utep - 6 ½ over RICE
UTAH - 20 over San Diego State
TEXAS - 27 over Kansas
MIAMI FLA - 19 ½ over Duke
CENTRAL FLORIDA - 19 over Tulane
Nevada - 30 over NEW MEXICO STATE
SAN JOSE STATE + 3 over Hawaii
NORTH TEXAS - 2 over Army
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: Washington + 11 over Dallas - Champagne corks are popping in the nation's capital after the Redskins topped 17 points for the first time this season in their win over Denver as they took advantage of the negative scheduling spot for the Broncos. Dallas' four game win streak ended in Green Bay despite a strong effort from the defense. Recent matchups of Cowboys and Indians have been very competitive with 7 of the last 10 meetings decided by 5 points or less. Washington's defense has not allowed over 306 total yards in their last 7 game and their familiarity with their Division rivals should keep this one close. Only once this season has Washington lost by more than 10 points. And Dallas also plays a few days later on Thanksgiving Day. They are the better team and should get the win. But Washington's offense should move the ball on Dallas and the Redskins' defense keeps this close. Dallas wins but by just 20-16.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
New Orleans - 11 over TAMPA BAY - Normally this would be a flat spot for the still undefeated Saints who have a Monday night showdown against New England up next. But having sputtered on both sides of the ball the past few games the Saints should approach this game as a means of getting things back on track for what should be their toughest game of the season against the Pats. Tampa provides the perfect opponent for that as the Buccs limited offense should enable the Saints' defense to regain its swagger. The Saints' 'D' has been vulnerable the past few weeks but they should be protecting a big lead for much of the game. And they will be going against a rookie QB. Tampa's defense has been porous all season, showing few signs of improvement. After 4 relatively close calls against Miami, Atlanta, Carolina and St Louis the Saints are well positioned to get back on track on both sides of the ball. New Orleans wins 45-21.
ST LOUIS + 9 over Arizona - Arizona finally had an impressive home win, just their second home triumph of the season. They are 4-0 on the road but are now expected to win, favored for the first time away from home this season. And by more than a TD. St Louis has played well over the past month and have shown slow but steady improvement. They're as healthy as they've been all season and nearly upset the Saints here last week. They could well get that upset win here. They have a solid rushing game with RB Jackson showing flashes of his prior All Pro form. Much of the Rams' improved play has been their being able to avoid turning the ball over as often as they did in the season's opening month. Arizona has started to address their main offensive weakness by running the ball better of late. But their defense has weakened, allowing an average of 393 ypg over their last 4 games. Their statistical edges are not great enough to warrant this high a level of favoritism although they are clearly the better team. The points will matter. Arizona wins but by just 24-21.
Tennessee + 4 ½ over HOUSTON (Monday Night) - QB Vince Young clearly makes a difference and Titans have won 3 straight following their Bye and an 0-6 start. Tennessee's now won 7 straight games started by Young dating back to last season. The resurgence of the running game has helped as the Titans have averaged over 200 yards on the ground over their last 4 games. Houston won at Tennessee back in Week 2 34-31. But the Titans rushed for 240 yards in that loss and outgained the Texans in total yards. The Titans' defense is also getting healthy. Houston is rested following their Bye but the Titans are a dangerous underdog now that they've gained momentum. If they establish the running game it will allow Young to make the big plays. Houston's rush defense gives the appearance of performing well, holding their last 6 foes to under 100 yards. But those games were mostly against weak rushing teams. Tennessee pulls the upset, winning 31-24.
Best of the Rest (Opinions)
CAROLINA - 3 over Miami (Thursday)
Buffalo + 9 over JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis + 1 over BALTIMORE
San Francisco + 6 ½ over GREEN BAY
MINNESOTA - 11 over Seattle
NEW ENGLAND - 10 ½ over N Y Jets
The Rest (Leans)
DETROIT - 3 ½ over Cleveland
Pittsburgh - 10 over KANSAS CITY
N Y GIANTS - 6 ½ over Atlanta
OAKLAND + 9 ½ over Cincinnati
San Diego - 3 over DENVER
CHICAGO + 3 over Philadelphia
Best of the NFL Totals
Cleveland/Detroit UNDER 39
Pittsburgh/Kansas City OVER 40
Atlanta/N Y Giants OVER 46
Washington/Dallas UNDER 41 ½
New Orleans/Tampa Bay OVER 51
N Y Jets/New England UNDER 45
Cincinnati/Oakland UNDER 36
Tennessee/Houston OVER 48
Money Line Recommendations
College:
INDIANA
NEW MEXICO
ARIZONA
Smu
Pro:
CAROLINA
San Diego
CHICAGO
Tennessee
NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s).
Newsletters 11/19 - 11/23 (Week 11)
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