Nick BookieKiller Parsons
Today's Pick: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
NFL
Jacksonville vs. Jets
1:00 EST
We came up short with the Jaguars last week as they let the Chiefs score a late TD; despite that loss, we're 5-1 (83%) overall our last six "free NFL" selections, and we'll look to get back on track with another play on Jacksonville this week as it travels to New York to take on the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets Jets:
The Jaguars got back to .500 at 4-4 for the third time this season last Sunday when they beat Kansas City, 24-2, and now head to New York to take on a Jets team that has lost four of its last five games.
David Garrard threw for 264 yards, including a 61-yard TD pass to Mike Sims-Walker, and had a 110.7 QB rating against the Chiefs.
Expect to see a lot of Maurice-Jones Drew in this one as well as the RB continues to excel this season.
After allowing the Titans 305 rushing yards last week, they held the Chiefs to just 60 yards in 14 carries.
It's true that Jacksonville is just 1-4 ATS its last five overall, but its 4-2 SU its last six and is on a long-term 5-0 ATS run vs. New York.
On the other side of the field: Mark Sanchez is the seventh-lowest rated starting QB in the AFC, and his eight fumbles are a major red flag.
New York is coming off a disheartening loss to the Dolphins and I expect a "letdown" this week; the Jets are 1-4 ATS their last five and are a horrible 2-5 ATS their last seven at Giants Stadium.
Bottom line: I look for Jones Drew to have a big day and test the Jets defensive line and believe this game will come down to a FG; look for the JAGUARS to improve to a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points and for the Jets to fall to 2-4 ATS their last six as a favorite. Take Jacksonville.
For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the "under" in this situation:
The Patriots will try to derail the Colts’ 17-game regular-season winning streak as they renew their star-studded Rivalry Sunday night; and to do that New England will have to control the clock, and do its best to keep Manning off the field. This will be more difficult with two of its top backs sitting in this one, so Bellichick will have to improvise.
The Patriots’ revamped unit has dealt with retirements (Rodney Harrison and Tedy Bruschi) and departures (Mike Vrabel and Richard Seymour), but anchored by linebacker Jerod Mayo and lineman Vince Wilfork, the team ranks second in scoring defense at 14.4 points per game!
Keep in mind that the total has gone under the posted number in five if New England's last seven overall and in four of its las five on the road.
On the other side of the field: While the Patriots have relied on a patchwork defense to help them to a commanding lead in the AFC East, the Colts have a two-game lead on the rest of the conference under first-year coach Jim Caldwell.
While Peyton Manning remains the focal point of this Colts team, keep in mind that the Colts lead the NFL in points allowed, with opponents managing just 13.5 points per contest.
Their defense, which features rookie starters at cornerback in Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey, has allowed four passing TD's this season.
Remember, the total has gone under the posted number in seven of Indianapolis's last ten overall and in four of its last five at home.
Bottom line: I expect the Patriots to do everything they can to keep Manning off the field, and when you couple that with these teams strong defensive tendencies, and these O/U trends, I believe this number is a little too high and feel we're getting excellent value on the UNDER!
Nick Parson 11/15
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