Craig Davis 11/15
40 Dime --- RAMS (Buy the 1/2 point up if your line is +14 or if it drops to +13 1/2)
20 Dime --- EAST CAROLINA (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is +4)
BENGALS (Buy the 1/2 point)
RAMS (buy the half point if your line is +14 or if it drops to +13 1/2) --- Still trying to recover from that absolute screw job I got on Saturday, and I plan to do it with the St. Louis Rams PLUS the points over the New Orleans Saints today. I realize the Saints are the "sexy" pick this year, scoring points at will against anyone who stands in their way, including several comeback wins when they are trailing at halftime. But I think we catch New Orleans a little flat in this spot after so many hard-fought come-from-behind games lately. After winning (and covering) their first six games of the season, the Saints have struggled to cover the last two double-digit numbers they've given... and both of those games were at home.
Now Vegas is asking them to go on the road and win by more than two touchdowns. Are they capable of doing that? Sure they are, if you consider they average 35 PPG... more than anyone else in the league. But recent history is against them in this series. Not since 1998 have the Saints beaten the Rams by more than 14 points and the Rams have actually won 2 straight vs. the Saints and 3 of the last 4 SU. Yes, I realize this is a bad Rams team and the Saints are probably better than they were in those previous meetings, but the numbers don't lie, and this day and age when underdogs are making a comeback, I think getting anything more than 10 points is a bonus.
And like I previously mentioned, let's also keep in mind that the Saints could find themselves in a very flat spot here knowing they just came off two grueling home wins vs. Atlanta and Carolina and a possible look-ahead game vs. the Patriots coming up in a few weeks. For now, New Orleans has two very winnable games at St. Louis and at Tampa Bay, and I can't help but think they are looking past these two opponents in preparation for that big home showdown with the Pats. I'm not saying they're taking St. Louis lightly, but they are human and realize it would take a complete meltdown on their part to lose this game, so to expect them to come out all fired up is a bit premature... no one gets excited to play the Rams.
I'd like you to also remember the Saints aren't 100% healthy this week, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if HC Sean Payton sits (rests) a few of his key players to make sure they are healthy for the stretch run. WR Lance Moore likely won't play with an ankle injury. Marques Colston and TE Jeremy Shockey have missed practice this week with flu-like symptoms, but H1N1 has been ruled out. Starting CB Jabari Greer, who's been the most consistent lockdown corner the Saints have had all year, won't be ready for today's game with a bum groin suffered in last week's win over Carolina. LB Scott Fujita and S Darren Sharper have both been limited in practice this week and could be limited in today's game as well. There are others, but I won't bore you with the details. Just know that the Saints are far from 100% today and it could force them to play conservative, keeping the ball on the ground and settling for field goals instead of touchdowns.
As for St. Louis, the writing is on the wall for their game plan... a heavy dose of Steven Jackson mixed in with the occasional run from FB Mike Karney. Why Karney? Because he was released by the Saints and claimed by the Rams this season, meaning he has every reason in the world to play the best game of his career. If Karney and Jackson can provide a spark in the running game (and they should all be much healthier after the bye week), the Rams will milk the clock, keep Brees and company on the sidelines, and make this a low scoring game. Also remember this... as of late, when the Saints get the lead they seem to sit on it. They aren't going for the jugular as much anymore and that's very good news for our side. Top play of the day on the St. Louis Rams PLUS the points over the Saints.
EAST CAROLINA --- Let me first suggest that you wait until the very last minute to bet this game. It opened at Tulsa -6 and has since gone down to -4 or -4.5 in a few spots, telling me it's probably going to go back up as some of the money starts pouring in on Tulsa. Let it pour, because the Tulsa money is the wrong side. Let me take you back to the Houston/Tulsa game last Saturday. A game Tulsa has prepared for the last two weeks. A game they knew they could win... and a win that would get them one game closer to bowl eligibility. You should know the rest of the story. Houston scored a TD with :21 seconds left, but failed to convert the two-point conversion. Tulsa fans, with their team up two, were ecstatic. The players could see the light at the end of the tunnel. All their hard work and dedication and preparation had actually paid off against a ranked team at home. Houston had rolled through the likes of Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Mississippi State. They had one of the best offenses in the country. Beating these guys would be a great reward to an otherwise disappointing season. Well, apparently it wasn't to be because the Cougars executed a pretty good onside kick, recovered the ball, and two plays later they were kicking the game-winning, 51-yard field goal as time expired.
The air was let out of the sails. The season was all but over. That loss left a scar on this senior class that will never go away, so to expect them to "get up" for a game with defensive-minded East Carolina tonight is a bit of a stretch. How can we ask these kids, who spent so much energy fighting for last week's game, to get the job done tonight against a team that plays better defense than any team Tulsa has faced this year other than Oklahoma? And let's not forget what the Sooners did to the Hurricane in that one (a 45-0 shutout). ECU comes in getting extra rest having not played since last Thursday... a 16-3 loss to ACC power Virginia Tech. Tonight the Tulsa defense will look like a high school team compared to the team they last faced, and I expect a healthy split of pass and run with very good success. The Pirates pass for nearly 200 yards per game while running for about 150 per game, and last I checked Tulsa doesn't play much defense in either facet. I wouldn't be surprised if East Carolina won this game outright, but since yesterday was such a freaking joke of a train wreck, we'll play the line and count the cash.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (be safe and buy the half point) --- Lovin' the underdogs today as pups have come out of the closet recently, getting Vegas back on track after a slow start to the season. Cincy has been a fun team to watch this year, winning games they probably shouldn't while losing games they should have probably won. We all remember that miracle Denver win back in Week 1. We also remember the Texans coming into Cincy in Week 7 and laying the beat-down on the Bengals in the second half. But despite it all, the Bengals are 6-2 on the season and a perfect 3-0 on the road. It's quite amazing if you think about it, but the Bengals have already beaten the Ravens twice this year, and with a win today will be 4-0 against both the Ravens and Steelers. Asking the Steelers to win this game by more than 7 points is asking a bit much, so that's why I'm taking the road team here.
The visitor has won this meeting seven of the last 10 times and has covered 11 of the last 15. Cincy has also been very good on the Vegas line this year, having covered 5 of their last 7 ball games including two in a row. We have a Pittsburgh team, fresh off a Monday night road win (and cover) over the Denver Broncos, expected to come back home on a short week and beat Cincy by more than a touchdown. Isn't that asking a bit much? Cincinnati has only been beaten twice this year because they play very sound defense and they run the ball exceptionally well. Cedric Benson and Rashard Mendenhall will be trying to "one up" each other much of the day, which leads me to believe this game is going to be very physical... back to the old school days of when the Steelers used to play smash-mouth football. Pittsburgh might very well win this game, but it's not going to be by more than a field goal or so. Bonus play on the Bengals plus the number.
CONFIRMED BY ME
As Always Points would be great!
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