Reason: The Jags and Jets are both 4-4. They both run the ball well and neither team is sure what to expect from their respective QBs. Jones-Drew has 737 yards rushing (5.1 YPC) and a league-high 11 TDs, despite rushing for only 48 yards in Weeks 4 and 5. While he's impressive, he'll face a Jets rush D which is solid, allowing 108.1 YPG (4.0 YPC). While€ Jones-Drew is a 'force,' the Jets own the NFL's top rushing offense, averaging 177.6 YPG (4.8 YPC), which is almost 40 YPG more than the Jags rush for. Also, Jones and now Greene (with Washington out) will run against a Jacksonville rush D which has allowed 119.8 YPG (4.3) but more importantly, was "blown away" in its last two road games (more on that later). Getting to the pass defenses, the Jags are awful defending the pass, allowing 68.6 percent completions 15 TDs and have just five INTs (100.2 opposing QB rating is third-worst in the NFL). Jax head coach Jack Del Rio switched to a 4-3 defense against the Chiefs after the 3-4 proved to be ineffective (an MAJOR understaement). The unit, which was called "insulting, ugly and embarrassing" by Del Rio after a 30-13 loss at Tennessee on November 1, turned in its best performance of the season against Kansas City, allowing 301 yards (only 60 on the ground) while recording three sacks. Bottom line is this, Jacksonville's eight sacks are the fewest in the NFL and I'll get to this defense's performance in its last two road games, shortly. As for the Jets, they are allowing only 54.1 percent completions (2nd-best in the league) and 165 YPG (also No. 2) with only five TDs and seven INTs. Let's look at Sanchez, who had a 4-1 ratio and became the first QB to ever win his first three starts. He had awful games vs the Saints (138 yards and three INTs) and Bills (119 yards and five INTs) but has bounced back with two solid efforts, since. He was a modest 9-of-16 with 143 yards (one TD / 0 INTs) in New York's 38-0 win pover the Raiders and then 20-of-35 for 265 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) in that Week 8 loss to Miami (107.0 QB rating vs Oak and 100.3 vs Mia). Garrard has just six TD passes all season (three vs Tenn in Week 4) and five INTs but in his last four games, has one TD pass and four INTs. Let's look at those last four games. The Jags have lost 41-0 at Seattle and 30-13 at Tennessee, while beating the Rams 23-20 in OT and the Chiefs 24-21 (both at home). The Rams and Chiefs are both 1-7, so should we make a big deal out of three-point wins? Seattle and Tennessee are a combined 5-11 and look what the Jax D allowed. Hasselbeck and Young completed 33-of-48 passes (68.8%), while the Seahawks and Titans ran for 448 yards (5.0 YPC). Think the Jets No. 1 rushing attack will like what they see on film? Why can't Sanchez, with Cotchery finally healthy and Edwards seemingly happy (he's talking about staying with the Jets), do to the Jags' pass D what Hasslebeck and Young did? Go back again and take a close look at the Jags' last four games. Two, three-point wins over the Rams and Chiefs (at home!) plus just AWFUL efforts at Seattle and Tennessee. The last time we saw the Jets, they outgained the Dolphins 378-to-104 in yards but lost 30-25 because Ginn returned kicks of 100 and 101 for TDs while Taylor returned a fumble 48 yards for another. The Jets got last week off and a quick look at the NFL record book shows that the Jets are 7-2 SU and ATS off their bye week this decade. Both teams may be 4-4 but there is MUCH more than a TD difference between these two teams this Sunday.
Larry Ness 11/15
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