I'm laying the points with USC. This selection has several similarities to a basketball selection that I made last Saturday. Like the Trojans are this afternoon, the team which I was betting on (Dallas) was laying points at home. The Mavericks entered that game (vs. Toronto on 11/7) having recently been defeated by the Hornets. On the other hand, the Raptors entered that game having just blown out those very same Hornets. I began that writeup by saying: "If the Hornets beat the Mavericks and the Raptors beat the Hornets, then shouldn't the Raptors be able to beat the Mavs? Not necessarily. In fact, that type of logic doesn't hold much weight when it comes to handicapping NBA games. Situations and matchups are entirely different for each individual game. In tonight's case, I believe those matchups will favor the Mavs. Laying -7.5 or -8 points, Dallas would go on to win that game by a score of 129-101. The Mavs had a season high in points and their 62.4% shooting percentage was the highest by a Raptor opponent in more than six years. The situation sets up similarly as the Trojans recently lost badly to the Oregon Ducks while the Cardinal just thumped those very same Ducks. Many of the betting public are likely going to be thinking. "Well, if Stanford can beat Oregon and Oregon can beat USC..." As we saw in the above basketball example (and numerous examples on the gridiron every week) that type of logic doesn't always work out too well. Many of you know that I had a big play on Stanford last week, so I certainly respect the Cardinal. Give them credit for playing a great game. However, that situation set up very nicely for them. The Cardinal, who were coming off a bye and in a big "revenge spot," were playing at home and they caught Oregon coming off a huge win, in a "letdown" spot. The shoe is on the other foot this time though. This time, its the Cardinal playing on the road and in a potential letdown spot, having just cracked the Top 25 for the first time since 2001. Should Stanford lack the intensity it brought to last week's game, the Trojans aren't likely to show any mercy. They certainly won't take the Cardinal for granted. Not only did the Trojans see what Stanford just did to Oregon but Pete Carroll will make sure they ware well aware that Stanford beat them here two seasons ago - one of the bigger upsets in college football history. I already said that I respect the Cardinal. They've got a very good quarterback and they're having a strong season. The offense is off a very impressive outing. Still, the defense played poorly (note that Clinton Snyder, the team's leading tackler was recently lost for the season) giving up 570 yards and 42 points and the Trojans bring an entirely different type of athlete to the table. Even in a "down year," they're fully loaded with talent. They know that they'll start to look a whole lot better if they can blow out the Cardinal, the team which just handed "mighty" Oregon its first Pac-10 loss. The Cardinal don't have much speed on defense and I expect that to prove to be their downfall as the game progresses. Last week's results (Stanford's big win and the fact that USC won but didn't cover at ASU) and the fact that everyone still remembers Stanford's big win here have helped to keep this line relatively low. Keep in mind that the Trojans were laying -23.5 points at Stanford last season (they won by 22) and that they were laying a whopping -39 points when the teams played here in 2007. Looking back further and we find that the Trojans were laying a minimum of -19.5 points in each of the last seven meetings. They won six of those games with five of the victories coming by greater than three touchdowns. Despite failing to cover last week, the Trojans are still 5-3 ATS (8-0 SU) in November the past few seasons. Looking back further and we find them at 14-6 ATS and 20-0 SU their last 20 games played in November. Clearly, this is a team that has enjoyed success at this time of the year. While last week's win may not have been impressive to many, I like the fact that USC bounced back with a win and that the Trojans did it with defense. I believe that its the type of win they can build momentum from. The Cardinal did the Trojans a huge favor last week as USC now has a shot at the Pac-10 title again. As Pete Carroll reminded the media after last week's win: "You guys have amnesia. Every year it ain't over till it's over. It's a hard conference. It ain't over yet." I believe the line is generously low and I expect the Trojans to build off last week's victory by delivering a convincing double-digit victory. *10 GOY