Doc Sports FootBall Week of November 9th
4 Unit Play. #5 Take West Virginia +9 over Cincinnati (Friday 8 pm ESPN 2) The Bearcats have a chance to go undefeated and earn a trip to the Orange Bowl but their schedule gets much tougher and this writer predicts that they will lose at least one of their remaining three games. These two teams met last year in Morgantown with the Bearcats blowing a big lead but coming through in overtime, 26-23. Cincinnati now has a quarterback controversy brewing with the return of starter Tony Pike, who will play in this game but not start. QB Collaros will start the game and he has played well since QB Pike went down with an injury. I expect this to be a problem since both will play and nobody knows how this will turn out.
The Mountaineers have quietly had another successful season under Coach Bill Stewart and will enter this game with a 7-2 record and a 3-1 record in the Big East. WVU has beaten Cincinnati three of the last four meetings and have had great success in this series overall. WVU is 14-2-1 straight-up and 7-0 in games played in Ohio. I do not believe that they have enough firepower to pull off the victory straight-up but they will play hard for sixty minutes and take this one down to the wire. The last two meetings have been decided by 4 points per game and that is how I see this one going as well. Cincy 27, WVU 23.
“The Magnificent 7” Saturday November 14th, 2009
6 Unit Play. #34 Take Kansas State (pk) over Missouri (Saturday 12:30 pm Versus) Big 12 Game of the Year. The Missouri Tigers remind me a lot of the situation that Hawaii is in this season. The last couple of years they pounded opponents, but now they have less talent and experience and opponents are getting their revenge. There’s no question that these two teams are going in opposite directions. The return of Coach Bill Snyder is starting to reap benefits. He has owned Missouri in his career, winning 13 straight games. After a slow start to the 2009 season his Wildcats are starting to get on a roll. The Wildcats are 6-0 on the season in Manhattan and this is their final home game of the season.
The big question mark for the Wildcats will be their pass defense. They have struggled with this in 2009 but if the Cats can run the ball effectively on offense and this will limit the Tigers passing opportunities. Missou lost to Baylor last week in Columbia and we look for a carryover effect here. K-State still has a lot of play for and look for a maximum effort with the troops playing hard for Coach Snyder. Homer gets the call. K-State 31, Missou 20.
5 Unit Play. #72 Take Ohio State -17 over Iowa (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) Top Big Ten Play. The Big Ten is weak but I must admit that the Buckeyes are getting stronger each week. Last week’s win over Penn State put the Buckeyes in the driver’s seat for a Rose Bowl berth. Their offense is finally on track and even though they are not outstanding, they are improving.
As for Iowa, the dream season came to an end last week with a home loss to Northwestern. What is worse is that they also lost QB Ricky Stanzi for the rest of the regular season with an ankle injury. The Hawks have been living on the edge all season getting down big early only to come behind each week to earn the victory. But reality has now set in and Iowa will have a real difficult time scoring without one of their leaders. Expect there to be a carryover effect for the Hawkeyes, as they will not have enough time to recover from such a bad loss. This will be a long afternoon for the roadster, as the Buckeyes all but lock-up the Big Ten title. Ohio State 28, Iowa 3.
5 Unit Play. #91 Take Notre Dame +6 ˝ over Pittsburgh (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Top Underdog Play. The Irish are coming off a horrible loss to Navy at Notre Dame Stadium last Saturday in South Bend. That loss cost them a chance at a BCS Bowl and likely cost Coach Charlie Weis his job. The Irish have been a bad play all season long as a double-digit favorite but they are still 6-3 on the season and have better talent then Pittsburgh does.
The Panthers are 8-1 on the season but one must remember that they play in the Big East Conference, the weakest of the big six. The Panthers close with three tough games and it is conceivable that they could lose all three games. Had Notre Dame beat Navy last week the line on this game would be two or three points. That did not happen and now this line is close to a touchdown and this is still the same Irish team. With WR Michael Floyd back and having a game under his belt, expect him to dominate like he did to start the season. Notre Dame has out-gained their opponent in 16 of the last 19 contests and will pull the straight-up victory on Saturday night. Notre Dame 28, Pittsburgh 27.
4 Unit Play. #46 Take Wisconsin -8 ˝ over Michigan (Saturday 12 pm Big 10 Network) Never in my 38 years in the handicapping business have I seen the Big Ten Conference this weak as it is in 2009. It is hard to imagine that Michigan is this bad and one now has to wonder if Coach Rich Rodriguez will be back in 2010 for this third season. What really amazes me about Michigan is how often this team folds in the second half of games. They were beaten by Purdue last week in Ann Arbor and now they head west to play a Wisconsin team that is rolling. I am sure Wisconsin remembers what happened in the 2008 game when they led 19-0 at half only to lose, 27-25. Look for the Badgers to continue to run the ball effectively and expect their defense to play a bend-but-do-not-break style.
As for the Wolverines, it appears that Coach Rodriguez has lost this team. RB Minor and RB Brown are questionable and QB Forcier does not have enough weapons to fill this gap. With the Big Ten being weak, I am not wild about laying this many points, but I fail to see any spark in the Wolverines. Look for the Badgers to continue their mission and send their seniors out in style with a big victory. Wisconsin 31, Michigan 14.
4 Unit Play. #48 Take Mississippi State +12 ˝ over Alabama (Saturday 7 pm ESPN) Look for a flat spot here for Alabama, as they are coming off three straight home games against some of the upper teams in the SEC in South Carolina, Tennessee, and LSU. The Tide have already clinched a spot in the title game on December 5th against Florida and this will be their first road game in over a month.
As for the Bulldogs, this may be the best 4-5 team in the land. MSU took Florida, LSU, and Georgia to the wire and will enter this contest off of a week’s rest. They have a strong ground game that should be ready to attack one of the best defenses in the country. Coach Mullen is very familiar with the SEC, having been at Florida, and he will have his Bulldogs ready. All the pressure is on Bama, as they must keep winning to keep their title hopes alive. Cannot call the upset here, but I do look for a close game. Bama 24, MSU 17.
4 Unit Play. #80 Take Baylor +24 over Texas (Saturday 12 pm FSN) I certainly cannot see the Horns losing another game before the BCS Championship Game in January against either Florida or Alabama. That being said, I question them being able to cover this many points when playing on the road. The Bears return17 starters from 2008 and Coach Briles seems to have this team heading in the right direction. When getting 17 points or more, Baylor has covered four of their last five games. I see no way possible that Baylor can win this game straight-up, but look for a scrappy team to make this a competitive game. This is just too many points to be laying on the road, as the dog gets the call. Texas 31, Baylor 13.
4 Unit Play. #98 Take TCU -19 ˝ over Utah (Saturday 7:30 pm CBS College Sports) If one looks up revenge in the dictionary this game would pop up. The Frogs were beaten by Utah last year and that loss prevented them from winning the Mountain West. What is interesting about that game is that TCU led 10-0 into the fourth quarter. They dominated the game in all aspects except for the score. Look for a strong effort here by the Frogs with a balanced attack that will cause major problems for the visitor. TCU has also been outstanding on defense and that will spell trouble for QB Jordan Wynn.
I expect a similar game as to what TCU did to BYU three weeks ago. I do not like laying this big of a number against a team that has just one lost this deep into the season, but the Frogs are just too strong for the Utes. They will dominate both side of the football and with the home crowd smelling a BCS Bid, this game will be over early. TCU 47, Utah 17.
5 Unit Play. #12 Take San Francisco -3 over Chicago (Thursday 8:20 pm NFL Network) The first Thursday regular season game takes place between the Chicago Bears and the San Francisco 49ers in San Francisco. Both teams are coming off a home loss and the loser of this game will likely see their playoff aspirations go down the drain. The Bears have always been known for a strong vaunted defense but that is just not the case this season, as the Bears have allowed 24 points per game. They are without Brain Urlacher, who was lost for the season in the opener with a wrist injury. QB Cutler has been up and down this season and I actually believe that QB Smith will be more effective for the 49ers. He has averaged two touchdowns passes per game since taking over three games ago and expect him to mange the game well on Thursday. The 49ers have a bunch of winnable games ahead on the schedule but they need to put an end to this losing streak tonight. San Francisco takes advantage of the Bears weak defense and wins for the first time since 10/04. San Francisco 24, Chicago 17.
5 Unit Play. #137 Take Dallas -3 over Green Bay (Sunday 4:15 pm Fox) Top NFL Play of the Weekend. For some reason the Green Bay Packers continue to get way too much respect from the general public and the oddsmakers. The Packers have been favored in every game but one this season. Despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the league, they are just 4-4 and with a loss here they will likely drop out of playoff contention. Green Bay has a terrible offensive line and QB Rogers has been sacked early and often in each game that they played expect against Cleveland. Dallas quietly sits atop the standings in the NFC East and will enter this game having won four straight games. Dallas played at Lambeau Field in 2008 and won that game, 27-16, and I really believe that both teams are similar in talent. That score was not indicative of how much of a blowout this game was since Dallas led by 18 points before the Packers scored a late fourth quarter touchdown. QB Romo has played well recently and found a hidden gem in WR Austin, a player that finds the end zone in every game. Romo has been sacked just eight times this season and that is usually how many times Rogers goes down in one game. The Packers faithful is ready to oust Coach McCarthy and GM Thompson and this result will give them another reason to pull the plug. Dallas 27, Green Bay 16.
4 Unit Play. #118 Take Over 43 ˝ in Atlanta @ Carolina (Sunday 1 pm Fox) Top Totals Play. Both teams have strong running attacks and the Falcons are averaging more than 25 points per game. The Panthers defense is not as strong as it has been in past seasons as they are giving up close to 25 points per game. This is an important game for both teams as they vie for a wild card spot in the NFC since the Saints have all but locked up the South Division. The last two games that the Panthers have played have reached the fifties in combined total points scored and this game will follow suit as well. QB Delhomme has shown signs of his form from 2008 and with a strong running attack both teams will reach the twenties in points and we will not worry about who wins this game and just collect with the over. ATL 27, Carolina 23.
4 Unit Play. #130 Take Tennessee -6 ˝ over Buffalo (Sunday 1 pm CBS) Vince Young will not fill up a stat sheet, but one thing he does in win football games and the Titans have won both of the games he has started in 2009. In fact, those two wins are the only games they have won this season. Now they are back home after a west coast road trip facing Buffalo, one of the many bad teams in the league. Buffalo does not have a strong defense and expect the Titans to establish the run early and often. RB Johnson is the fastest guy in the league and with QB Young expect them to run for more than 200 yards. Tennessee is getting back on track and we will ride this horse during this span. Tennessee 31, Buffalo 13.
Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports. Your next update will be Thursday, November 19th, 2009 @ 5 pm central time.
PhatBaztard gave 1st and Ten 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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