Ben Burns 11/11
Ben Burns 7* Blue Chip
OVER 207,TORONTO RAPTORS -vs-Chicago Bulls
Game: Chicago Bulls vs. Toronto Raptors Game Time: 11/11/2009 7:05:00 PM
Prediction: over
Reason: I'm playing on Chicago and Toronto to finish OVER the total. At first glance, this o/u line seems quite high. However, when considering that the last meeting between them had an o/u line of 214.5, this one doesn't seem all that high anymore. That's particulary true given the style of basketball that the Raptors are playing so far this season. Indeed, Toronto is starting to look a little like an East Coast version of the Suns or Warriors. Last time out, the Raptors combined with the Spurs for 255 points - all of them scored in regulation. The Spurs won 131-124. In their previous game, the Raptors gave up 129 at Dallas. The Mavs had a season-high in points and their 62.4% shooting percentage was the highest percentage by a Toronto opponent in more than six seasons. While both those games were on the road, the Raptors most recent home game resulted in a 110-99 win over the Pistons and their previous home game was a 125-116 loss vs. Orlando. Overall, Toronto games are averaging greater than 220 points for the season. Not surprisingly, five of their last six have finished above the total. Admittedly, Chicago games have been much lower-scoring than Toronto games. However, I don't think they'll mind playing an up tempo opponent like the Raptors and they'll know that they're likely going to need to score triple-digits to have a chance to win. (The Raptors have scored in triple-digits in every game this season.) Looking at the series history between these teams and we find the OVER at 10-5 the last 15 times that the Bulls played here. The most recent meeting here finished with a score of 134-129. Granted, the game went to overtime. Still, 238 of those points were scored in regulation. The Bulls were playing the second of back to back games for that 134-129 game and they will be again tonight. Note that the only previous time they played the second of b2b games this season that they allowed 118 points, a game which finished above the total by more than 20 points. Looking back further and we find the OVER at 12-5-1 the last 18 times that the Bulls played the second of back to back games. Last night's loss was of the "heart-breaking variety" too - which might make it a little easier to play a little more loosely on the defensive end of the floor. Overall, I expect an offensive affair with the final combined score again finding its way above the number. *7 Blue Chip
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