I'm laying the points with New England on Sunday. The Patriots, along with the rest of the NFL-world were introduced to Miami's "Wildcat" offense on September 21, 2008. The Pats were a 12-point home favorite and were caught off guard, losing 38-13 in one of the ugliest losses of the Belichick-era. New England also didn't have Tom Brady in uniform...he was knocked out for the season in week-one. The Patriots had no problem at all the second time against the "Wildcat," thumping Miami 48-28 two months later as a two-point favorite. This time, the Patriots are off a bye-week, while the Dolphins were in a "heater" last Sunday against the Jets. Don't expect to see a new, "cute" offense from the Fins catching the Pats by surprise. Instead, we're likely going to see a huge game from Brady and his receiving corps. After all, Randy Moss and Wes Welker are going to be defended by a pair of rookie-corners. Belichick and the Pats with a week off to prepare for rookie corners? Are you kidding me? Miami's defense ranks just 19th overall this season with a pass defense that ranks 24th, allowing over 240-yards passing per game. The Dolphins have allowed 98-points in their last three games, almost 33 ppg. And Brady has been on fire over the last five games, including a 68% completion rate. This will be Miami's fourth straight emotionally-charged, and physical match over the last five weeks. I just don't think they're up to the task. Offensively, the Dolphins are challenged. Chad Henne really struggled on the road in last week's win over the Jets. Miami scored 30-points in a five-point win, but that was the most misleading score of the season. After all, the Dolphins were out-gained, 378-104. Yes, they had just 104-yards of offense. Henne completed just 12 of 21 passes for 112-yards, and he was sacked five times. This week, they'll face the league's sixth-ranked defense overall, and fifth-ranked pass defense. Belichick is as good as it gets planning out of a bye week and you can bet he'll have several man and zone "looks" to make Henne adjust on the fly. There are huge matchup advantages for the Patriots all over the field. They also owns a few "tech" advantages. Miami enters Sunday just 4-15 ATS off an upset win over a divisional opponent. They're also 1-9 ATS off a game where they averaged 3.5 yards per play or less. This team doesn't rebound well following a poor offensive performance. Look for New England to come out focused and determined off the bye week. I'm laying the points with New England, my Blockbuster Blowout GOY. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Scott Spreitzer 11/8
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