[19th Hole]

Stephen Nover
Sunday's Plays 50 Dime PATRIOTS - This year is different in the NFL. You can't be afraid to lay double-digits.

I see the Patriots and Tom Brady tearing apart an overrated Dolphins team that was extremely fortunate to beat the Jets last week (outgained by 274 yards from scrimmage) and whose secondary is extremely vulnerable with two rookie cornerbacks.

You can be darn sure Bill Belichick isn't going to let kick returner Ted Guinn beat him like blustery Rex Ryan did. Without long returns from Guinn, the Dolphins don't have the offense to keep up with Brady, who finally appears to be 100 percent.

The Patriots are close to their record-setting form of two years ago scoring 94 points in their last two games. The Dolphins don't have the experience or depth in the secondary to keep up with New England's three and four wide receiver sets.

The Dolphins aren't going to trick the Patriots with their wildcat formation like they did last year in Foxboro. The Patriots were humiliated in that contest, their worst loss in eight years at Gillette Stadium.

The Patriots were idle last week. You know Belichick, a legitimate defensive genius, will have his team fired up and well prepared for any trickery the Dolphins' limited offense can come up with. This is just Chad Henne's fifth start.

The Patriots are 5-1 against the spread following a bye.

20 Dime PACKERS - The situation isn't the best for Green Bay, off a tough home loss to division rival Minnesota. But it won't matter in this matchup.

Tampa Bay is on its way to matching Detroit's winless season of last year. Yes, the Buccaneers are that bad. And they're going to be even worse with rookie quarterback Josh Freeman becoming their third starting quarterback of the season.

Freeman has a big arm, but he's not nearly ready to start in the NFL. Green Bay's 3-4 defense is going to have a monster game against him. Freeman is going to be confused by Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers' schemes.

Freeman's passer rating in preseason was 41. The only time he has played during the regular season was Nine snaps during two series in the Buccaneers' blowout loss in London to the Patriots.

Aaron Rodgers is having a tremendous statistical season. The Packers' problem has been pass protection. Look for that to be greatly improved as veteran left tackle Chad Clifton, Green Bay's best pass blocker, and right tackle Mark Tauscher are now ready to move into the starting lineup. Clifton had been hurt and Tauscher was recently resigned.

Look for Rodgers' confidence to go way up knowing his blindside will be protected and Jared Allen isn't around to hound him. The Packers are 16-6-1 against the spread on the road, 9-3 against the number as a road favorite.

Tampa Bay has failed to cover in its last seven home games.

10 Dime REDSKINS - I'll take this many points with a Redskins squad that ranks fourth in total defense giving up 283 yards per game and fifth in defensive scoring allowing 17.6 points per contest.

It's not like Atlanta is playing well. The Falcons have lost their last two games, surrendering a combined 72 points in road losses to Dallas and New Orleans.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan isn't experiencing a sophomore jinx after an outstanding rookie season, but he is on a cold spell throwing seven interceptions in his last three games while only completing 51.8 percent of his passes during this span.

Washington was idle last week. The Falcons have been on the road the past two weeks. They go on the road in their next two games, including facing division rival Carolina next week.

So the scheduling dynamics are in the Redskins' favor. The key is can the Redskins' offense, which has been terrible, put up enough points to get the cover?

New play-caller Sherm Lewis has had more time to digest the situation. The Redskins have had an extra week to get their much-maligned offensive line in order. Expect fresh legs from Clinton Portis.

Atlanta doesn't present a tough defense for the Redskins to overcome. The Redskins can move the ball better than perceived. The Falcons have given up 28 pass plays of 20 or more yards, second-worst in the league.

Jason Campbell should have time to throw. The Falcons have only 14 sacks, which ranks 24th. John Abraham is having a down year rushing the passer. Without Abraham, the Falcons can't generate a pass rush unless they blitz, which will open the short game up.

[SOCALSCOTT]

nice 0-3

[KongKiller]