[tannguyen94]

Jeff Benton
Sunday's 2009 NFL Game of the Year winner ... 50 DIME: PATRIOTS (minus the points vs. Dolphins)

IMPORTANT NOTE: I want you to make a smart investment and buy down the half-point with New England if this number is sitting a 10 1/2. Do that and lay minus-10 with the Patriots, as 10 is a very key number in the NFL. ... Also, DO NOT settle for New England -11 unless you absolutely have to, as there are plenty of places that have the Patriots at -10 1/2.


Patriots

The last time Miami went to New England, it introduced “The Wildcat” to the NFL. Caught completely off guard, the Patriots were crushed 38-13 as a 12½-point home favorite, with the Dolphins putting up 461 yards (216 rushing) and holding the Matt Cassel-led Patriots offense to just 216 total yards (and that was Cassel’s third career start).

Two months later, after studying hours of “Wildcat” tape, Bill Belichick took his team to Miami and got some big-time revenge in a 48-28 win as a one-point road favorite, this time holding the Dolphins to just 62 rushing yards, while the offense rolled up 530 yards, with Cassel throwing for 408 yards. It was classic Belichick: You may fool and embarrass him once, but you will not do so twice.

So how does this all apply to today’s game? Well, for starters, the Patriots are coming off a bye, meaning they’ve had two weeks to prepare for any new “Wildcat” wrinkles, not to mention two weeks to study new Dolphins QB Chad Henne, who will be making his fifth career start today. As anyone who has followed football religiously for the last decade knows, Bill Belichick eats rookie quarterbacks for breakfast, lunch AND dinner. There’s little no doubt that the New England defense, which surrendered a grand total of seven points and 144 passing yards in two wins prior to the bye, will make life miserable for Henne (who struggled through a 12-for-21, 112-yard passing day and was sacked six times at the Jets last week). There’s also little doubt that New England will be more prepared for the “Wildcat” than any team Miami has faced to this point.

At the same time, you think Tom Brady is itching to get back on the field after a week off? The Golden Boy finally looked to have turned the corner from his knee injury the last two weeks, lighting up the Titans and Bucs for a combined 688 passing yards, Nine TDs and two INTs, completing 78.8 percent of his passes (52-for-66) … and he didn’t even finish either game! Today, Brady is going up against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL (the Dolphins give up 240.6 passing ypg and 7.8 yards per pass attempt). The last time Brady faced Miami was during the Patriots’ 2008 perfect season, and all he did was complete 39 of 58 passes (67 percent) for 569 yards and nine touchdowns, leading his team to wins of 28-7 at home and 49-28 on the road. And get this: Today, Brady – along with partners in crime Randy Moss and Wes Welker – gets to go up against TWO rookie cornerbacks!

While New England is coming off a bye here, Miami is in a really bad situational spot, as it is making its second straight trip to the Northeast. Last week, the Dolphins got one of the luckiest wins you’ll ever see in the NFL. Despite managing just 104 total yards (52 net rushing, 52 net passing) and giving up 378 total yards (rookie QB Mark Sanchez had 265 passing yards and two TDs), Miami pulled out a 30-25 victory. The reason was Ted Ginn, who returned two kickoffs for touchdowns against the sloppy Jets’ special teams. That’s NOT happening again this week against a Bill Belichick-coached squad.

The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in the last six years when coming off a bye, and this particular week off came in the absolute perfect spot, as, again, it has given Belichick time to game plan for the Wildcat and pick apart Henne’s tendencies. It’s also given the coach extra time to bring back down to earth any of his players who might have been feeling a little too good about themselves after routing the Titans and Bucs by a combined score of 94-7.

Yes, Miami has won three of its last four after an 0-3 start, but we’ve already established that last week’s win over the Jets was a major fluke. To a lesser degree, so was the Dolphins’ win over New York three weeks earlier, when Miami scored a TD with seconds to play to pull out a 31-27 victory. The Dolphins’ only other win was at home against crappy Bills. Put it another way: Miami’s three wins and covers this year came against the Jets twice (and rookie QB Sanchez) and Bills (Trent Edwards). Its four losses and non-covers came against the Falcons (Matt Ryan), Colts (Peyton Manning), Chargers (Philip Rivers) and Saints (Drew Brees), and three of those were double-digit defeats!

Put it all together – Henne vs. a Belichick stop unit that’s ranks in the top 5 in passing defense; a smoking-hot Brady vs. a poor Dolphins pass D; the Patriots coming off a bye vs. the Dolphins making their second straight long road trip to play a divisional game; the Patriots playing at home, where they’re 4-0 SU with three straight spread-covers vs. the Dolphins playing on the road (1-3 SU and ATS) – and this has three-touchdown blowout written all over it!

My friends, your 2009 NFL Game of the Year is the New England Patriots, and I’ll call for a final score of 38-13

[mrbz]

Cheers TN, nice work.

[19th Hole]