[19th Hole]

Dr. Bob

2 Star Selection
**Washington 19 ATLANTA (-10.0) 21

Washington is a better team than what is evident by their scores, as the Redskins have out-gained their opponents 5.2 yards per play to 4.7 yppl yet have been out-scored by an average score of 13.7 to 17.6 points. Being -8 in turnover margin is one of the problems and difficulty scoring in the red zone is the other major component that has kept Washington from being as good on the scoreboard as they've been the stats sheet. The turnovers are just random given that quarterback Jason Campbell has a very low career interception percentage of 2.2% and a good pass defense like Washington is likely to pick off more than just 1.5% of opponent's passes going forward. The play calling in the red zone will get better with Sherman Lewis now calling plays and the bye week will also help in regards to analyzing the problem and fixing it.

Bad teams generally perform very well after a bye week, as teams with a win percentage of less than .300 (after 3 or more games) are 69-35 ATS as an underdog or pick following their bye week. Also, underdogs of more than 6 points are 28-7 ATS after a bye if they are on a 3 game or more losing streak. So, I expect Washington to come out of their bye week with renewed enthusiasm and a better offensive game plan that should be too hard to execute against sub-par Atlanta defense that has given up 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team. Washington's offense has been hurt by the injury to LT Chris Samuels, as the Redskins have given up 14 sacks in 3 games without him, and I rate the Skins at 0.6 yppl worse than average with their current personnel. Even without Samuels the Redksins are only at a 0.3 yppl disadvantage against the Falcons' defense.

Atlanta's attack rates at 0.4 yppl better than average and that unit only has a slight 0.1 yppl advantage over a solid Washington defense that's given up just 4.7 yppl to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team. Taking 10 points with a good defensive team that should have decent success moving the ball is usually a recipe for success and my math model favors Atlanta by just 6 1/2 points assuming the Redskins can score at normal efficiency inside the red zone. My other model, which takes red zone efficiencies into account, favors Atlanta by only 8 1/2 points, so there is line value favoring the Redskins no matter which model I use.

The reason for this play, however, is a very negative 9-56-1 ATS subset of a 67-143-4 ATS situation that is partially based on Atlanta's loss last week and their bad defense. The Falcons are 6-1 ATS after a loss in two years under coach Smith, but that's not much of a trend and they were lucky to cover last week (thanks to an untimely injury that stopped the clock and a fumble that followed while New Orleans was trying to run out the clock). I'll take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at +8 points or more.


2 Star Selection
*DENVER (+3 at -120 odds) 21 Pittsburgh 16

I've won twice with Denver as 3-Star Best Bets this season, at home against New England and at San Diego, but I passed on the underrated Broncos last week because the situation was against them (although I still made them a strong opinion). I was sort of glad that Denver lost last week at Baltimore because it assured that the Broncos would remain an underrated team. That blowout loss sets up Denver in a 48-18-3 ATS home bounce-back situation that plays on mediocre or good teams after a loss of 20 points or more. I certainly don't expect Denver to play poorly at home, where visiting teams have so much trouble with the thin air at high altitude. Good teams have regularly been beaten at Mile High, including Dallas and New England as favorites this year. Denver is particularly good at home when they are considered the inferior team (i.e. favored by 2 or less or getting points). The Broncos are an incredible 33-7-2 ATS at home as a favorite of 2 or less, a pick, or an underdog since 1981 and that trend has worked for every coach that's been here. The Broncos are 19-1-1 ATS in their last 21 home games from -2 to dog, including the 2 wins this season. Pittsburgh's injured riddled defensive line rotation will have players gasping for air, as you need a deep rotation of defensive linemen in order to survive the high altitude and that is something that Pittsburgh does not have with DE Aaron Smith's backup Travis Kirschke now also out with an injury.

Not only does Denver have a great history at home against good teams but the Broncos are just as good as Pittsburgh and should be a 3 point favorite in this game. Let's take a look at the numbers. Pittsburgh has averaged 6.3 yards per play on offense against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and I rate the Steelers' attack at 1.0 yppl better than average with Rashard Mendenhall as the main ball carrier. Denver's defense is actually slightly better than Pittsburgh's offense, as the Broncos have allowed just 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team, which makes that unit 1.1 yppl better than average. Denver actually played just as well as normal on defense in their 7-30 loss last week, allowing just 4.8 yppl to a Baltimore offense that would average 5.9 yppl at home against an average team. They just didn't force any turnovers for the first time all season and the offense set them up in bad field position.

Denver's offense did play poorly last week (3.5 yppl) and the offense now rates at 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. Pittsburgh's defense is good, but not great this season, as the Steeler rate at just 0.3 yppl better than average, allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team.

Pittsburgh does have a 0.4 yppl advantage over Denver's offense and an overall advantage of 0.3 yppl over the Broncos, but Denver has a 2.5 points edge in projected turnovers with quarterback Kyle Orton still without a meaningful interception this season (his lone pick was on a Hail Mary at the end of the half against New England). Both teams are bad in special teams and my math model favors Denver by 3 points overall.

In addition to Denver's great history at home in this price range, the Broncos also apply to a 48-18-3 ATS Monday night home team angle while Pittsburgh's long tradition of failure as a road favorite the week after a victory (23-42-3 ATS since 1980) has continued under coach Mike Tomlin (1-8 ATS). I'll take Denver in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 3-Stars at +3 at -115 or better.


Strong Opinion

NY GIANTS (-4.5) 28 San Diego 18

New York has proven that they can dominate bad teams with dominating wins over Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland, but the Giants have not proven that they can beat a good team, as 3 consecutive losses to New Orleans, Arizona, and Philly attest. Thankfully, the Chargers are in the same category, with their wins coming against losing teams Oakland (twice), Miami, and Kansas City while going 0-3 against good teams Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Denver. My main math model favors New York by 3 1/2 points and my other model favors the Giants by 6 1/2 points, so a line of 4 1/2 points seems about right. The reason for liking the Giants is a very strong 63-16-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator that favors New York and a 37-93-6 ATS angle that applies to San Diego. I'll consider New York a Strong Opinion based on the technical analysis.


Strong Opinion UNDER

UNDER (43) - SEATTLE (-10.0) 23 Detroit 14

My math model favors Seattle by 12 points in this game even though Detroit's offense gets a boost with star WR Calvin Johnson coming back. The 40 passes intended for Johnson have gained 325 yards for an average of 8.1 yards per attempt. The other 3 wide receivers on the Lions have combined to average just 5.3 ypa on 84 passes thrown to them, so having Johnson back should make things easier for rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford. The Lions are still 0.5 yards per pass play worse than average in the 4 full games that Johnson has played, compared to -2.1 yppp in 3 games without him, so I don't expect the Lions to do much damage through the air against an underrated Seahawks' pass defense that has been 0.6 yppp better than average in 5 games with top CB Josh Wilson playing, which is 0.4 yppp better than their season rating. Seattle's run defense is also better than their 4.3 ypr against average suggests, as they allowed 159 yards on two runs up the middle by San Francisco's Frank Gore when nose tackle Brandon Mebane was injured in week 2. In 6 games with Mebane the Seahawks have allowed just 3.4 ypr against a slate of better than average running teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defense. My math model calls for Detroit's sub-par rushing attack to gain just 69 rushing yards at 2.8 ypr in this game and for the Lions' offense to accumulate only 247 total yards at 4.0 yards per play.

Detroit has given up 6.3 yppl and 29 points per game this season while rating at 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively. However, Seattle has averaged only 4.7 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, so the Seahawks' offense is nearly as bad as Detroit's defense.

With just mediocre production expected from Seattle and very little offense expected from Detroit there appears to be good value on the under since the Over/Under on this game is 43 points, which is right at the league median of 43 total points. Even if Seattle's defense weren't better than their season stats suggest the total on this game should still only be 40 1/2 points, so I'll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 41 points or higher.

[19th Hole]