Randall the Handle

NCAAF
Season To Date (Since August 2009) 14-8 +11.24 Units


Illinois +7 over MINNESOTA PINNACLE

Let’s see, a 5-4 Minnesota team at home laying only a touchdown to a 2-6 Illinois team – that must be a mistake?! For the square that doesn’t pay attention to strength of schedule, injuries and motivation, this game seems like a “lock.” Take a closer look, however, to the current state of the Minnesota program and it’s a shock they’re being trusted to lay a touchdown to a team with better talent. Yes, Minnesota has the better record and team statistics but they lost their only offensive playmaker in WR Erick Decker. Without Decker, who had 50 catches for 758 yards in 8 games, Minnesota can’t count on any playmaker to make plays and in any BCS conference that’s a major problem. Ask Oklahoma State what losing a Dez Bryant does to your team’s offense and morale. It’s a huge loss that was masked by Minnesota thrashing Michigan State last week. That game was the first in which Minnesota scored more than three offensive touchdowns this season and you can safely infer that won’t happen again. Illinois finally got their first Big Ten win last week against Michigan, beating them 38-13 as a sizeable underdog. Much maligned quarterback Juice Williams was reinstated as the starter and finished the game without a turnover. Williams can kill your chances against elite teams, but facing a mediocre Minnesota team is exactly the type of opponent Williams’ thrives on. The money-line for this game currently sits at +2.40 and I would definitely recommend playing that number if you feel like gambling a little. I’ll stick to taking the points on one of the biggest overlays of the year. The injuries suffered by Minnesota are serious enough that they must be considered a completely different team; to our fortune the lines-makers have yet to adjust. Play: #319 Illinois +7 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).