For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this matchup is on the home side:
Off their worst offensive effort of the season, I look for the Wizards to get back on track this evening in front of the hometown crowd. Alternating wins and losses, Washington is averaging 112.5 points on 53.7 % shooting in its two victories but 89.5 points on 41.9 % shooting in the two defeats.
This is a spot that Washington has always performed well in though, going 8-5 ATS over the last two seasons vs. good defensive teams which allow 91 points or less per contest.
On the other side of the court: Miami was 12 minutes away from opening with four straight wins for the first time since 2004-05 before falling apart down the stretch in Tuesday’s 104-96 loss to Phoenix; I expect a "letdown" tonight.
Miami allowed Phoenix to shoot 50.6 % from the floor and make 9 of 23 3-pointers (39.1 %)!
And it doesn't get any easier for D-Wade and company tonight when we find out that this is a spot that Miami has struggled in for a long time now; over the last two seasons the Heat are just 6-11 ATS as a road dog of three points or less.
Bottom line: The Heat swept the four-game season series from the Wizards last season, outscoring them by an average of 15.7 points; with Arenas back in the lineup, I look for Washington to play with a small amount of revenge in mind and feel that home court advantage can also not be overlooked in this instance; look for the WIZARDS to improve to a perfect 2-0 ATS at the Verizon Center this season! *9* WIZARDS.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
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