Stephen Nover Wednesday's Plays 15 Dime PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RUN LINE (+1-1/2 Runs)

NOTE - Thanks to a late touchdown pass, Bowling Green won straight-up as an underdog against Buffalo, allowing me to cash a 50 dime winner. This was my second largest college football play of the season.

Bowling Green has an outstanding quarterback and wide receiver, plus Buffalo was extremely banged-up. I thought the wrong team was favored. As it turned out, the Falcons' defense stayed home and I needed that late surge.

My free pick turned a profit for the sixth straight day with the Phoenix Suns-Miami Heat going under the total by 16 points. This was a classic case of a strong offense meeting a strong defense. The Suns won the game, but defense prevailed with the game easily going under.

These type of totals, with contrasting styles, are the toughest for oddsmakers to make a line on. I'll be looking to exploit these kind of matchups when the opportunity presents itself again. The line actually took in heavy action just before tip time, as some places saw two-point moves, from 216-1/2 to 214-1/2.

15 Dime PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RUN LINE (+1-1/2 Runs) - The Yankees are priced too strong in this Game 6 matchup. The Phillies have out-homered the Yankees (10-5), split in their two World Series games at Yankee Stadium and the starting pitching matchup isn't as much of an advantage to the Yankees as you might think.

The Phillies have regained lost momentum after holding on to win Game 5. The pressure now reverts to the Yankees. The Phillies have the fresher pitcher going in Pedro Martinez.

Martinez is far from being in his prime, but he's still tough and respectable. The Phillies are 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Martinez has a respectable 3.65 ERA, is experienced facing the Yankees and pitched decently in Game 2 yielding three runs in six innings. He'll be pitching on five days rest.

Yankee starter Andy Pettitte will be going on short rest having just pitched three days ago. It's the first time all season the 37-year-old Pettitte is pitching on short rest.

Like Martinez, Pettitte is past his prime. He wasn't nearly as effective pitching in homer-friendly Yankee Stadium as he was on the road. Pettitte was 7-4 with a 4.40 ERA at home compared to 10-4 with a 3.73 ERA on the road.

The Yankees are without their center fielder Melky Cabrera. He's out with a hamstring injury, replaced by inexperienced and mistake-prone Brett Gardner.

There is not much of a talent gap between these two teams. The defending world champion Phillies are proven big game winners. They are 20-8 in their last 28 playoff games. They also are 9-3 the past 12 times they've been a road underdog.