Dave Malinsky

Philadelphia Phillies (Martinez)+175 over NEW YORK YANKEES (Pettitte)

3* #961 PHILADELPHIA ***First Half (1st FIVE innings)*** over NY YANKEES

A bad line here, a very bad one. We do not need to say much more than that in reality, but in a game in which the Yankees have two clear advantages ? the home field for certain, and the possibility of Mariano Rivera being far better than any Phillie reliever for the final outs, which we can take out of play. We will call Pedro Martinez over Andy Pettitte as a clear advantage at this price point, and make that our play. We peg Pettitte as clearly vulnerable. Despite the fact that the Yankees won Game #3 behind him on Saturday night he was nothing special, allowing four runs in six innings, including home runs from Jayson Weth and Carlos Ruiz, and logging 104 pitches, 45 of which missed the strike zone. That was his high pitch count since back in August, and that particularly matters on an evening in which he will work on three days rest for the first time since 2006. As patient as the Phillie lineup is, a quick second look makes them even tougher for Pettitte if he can not get near his ?A? stuff. And even Pettitte is not sure that he can bring that ? His response to struggling in Game #3?"Mechanically I felt a little bit off, just a click off, my release point didn't feel great. It was just a battle to get the ball in and out and move it around like I wanted to. I wasn't hitting my off-speed stuff for strikes like I like to do.? And what impact will the short turnaround have? "For CC it's a little bit easier because he's throwing so much harder and his stuff is so much better. But physically for me, it obviously is a little, just seeing how my body is going to feel on that short rest because I'm just not sure at my age or whatever ? I don't know how I'll feel. I know I felt terrible [in Game 3] and I was on six days' rest. I just, you know, am going to go as hard as I can for as long as I can." Not exactly a self-vote of confidence. Meanwhile Martinez is not going to be bothered by the pressure of this setting, and in 10 ?First Half? innings in the playoffs he has only allowed one run, that solo blast by Mark Teixeira in the fourth inning here last Thursday night. He comes in much fresher than Pettitte, and after finding the strike zone with 67.3 percent of his pitches in the first go-round, with more strikeouts than hits allowed, there is more than enough price being offered to earn out trust. So why only the First Five Innings? It is really quite simple, neither Ryan Madson nor Brad Lidge inspire confidence from us to get the final outs vs. this lineup in this ballpark, while having consecutive days off sets Rivera up to work two full innings again tonight, which negates the weaknesses that the Yankee set-up men bring. But with most key precincts having the First Half and Full Game lines so closely aligned, we get the benefit of that weak Phillie bullpen actually working for us in terms of the bargain we get to back Martinez.