In favoring Miami by less than the value of the court they are making a long-term statement that we do not agree with in this one, and with the style matchup strongly favoring the Heat we can call for a much easier win than the oddsmakers are projecting. We are not Phoenix fans. The chemistry on the defensive end of the court is awful, with Steve Nash and Grant Hill getting long on the tooth, Amare Stoudemire rarely showing interest, and no shot blocker in the middle to make up for the deficiencies (until Robin Lopez returns, and he is still awfully raw). And a lack of quality depth makes it even more difficult to play with defensive intensity for 48 minutes. It will make them hard-pressed to beat quality opponents on the road, but they get thrown into the wrong price range here because of that ridiculously weak opening schedule of the Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves. Miami is a different story at the defensive end of the court. The Heat have held each of their first three opponents to their season low in scoring, rating #2 in the NBA on our best charts, and #1 in FG percentage allowed. It has been the solid work of Erik Spoelstra bringing that young roster together quickly, and the leadership on the court of Dwayne Wade creating a win-first, me-second focus. And while the Suns have those depth issues that accentuate their weaknesses, Spoelsta?s decision to bring Udonis Haslem off the bench is creating a much better game flow for the Heat, while Joel Anthony is also making major defensive contributions, rating 6th in the league in blocked shots in only 18 minutes per game. Dwayne Wade is a ?finisher?, and now that the cast around him has grown up the Heat are going to be difficult to close out on this court ? since the All Star break LY they are 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in the favorite?s role, and the Suns do not bring what it takes to alter that flow
Malinsky
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