Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

BOWLING GREEN +3.5

For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this matchup is on the visitors: With the combination of QB Tyler Sheehan and WR Freddie Barnes, Bowling Greens' arial attack remains solid; Sheehan has completed 65 % of his passes for 2,677 yards with 15 TD's and only five INT's.

Barnes has burst onto the national scene by making 99 receptions for 1,054 yards and Nine TD's.

It's true the Falcons are 1-5 ATS their last six overall, but dating back to last season they're 9-2 ATS their last 11 on the road and 4-1 SU their last five vs. Buffalo.

On the other side of the field: In Buffalo’s most recent game, an overtime loss to Western Michigan on Oct. 24, Ike Nduka carried 18 times for 172 yards and a TD and has rushed for over 100 yards in three of Buffalo’s last four games; slowing him down in the backfield will be the plan for the Falcons.

The Bulls’ defense came into their last matchup ranked 42nd nationally at 331.1 yards per game allowed but they are now ranked 60th (352.8) after Western Michigan finished with 505 yards of total offense.

It should be noted that the secondary suffered several key injuries during that game and the only healthy cornerback from the two deep was junior Domonic Cook. Junior Josh Thomas and sophomore Joe Petit suffered concussions while senior Kendric Hawkins left with an internal injury.

Bottom line: While it’s a new coaching staff at BG, the Falcons will be looking for a measure of revenge against the Bulls, after last year's end of season fourth quarter meltdown which saw Buffalo win in double OT and then go on to win the MAC East, play in the conference championship game and in the International Bowl.

As the Bulls have been prone to the turnover this season (17 turnovers lost and only six gained, which is tied for 103rd nationally), I look for BOWLING GREEN to make the most of its opportunities tonight and to improve to 3-2 ATS as an "underdog" as Buffalo falls to 1-3 ATS at home and 0-2 ATS when playing the roll of favorite this season! *9* BOWLING GREEN.