[icethekicker]

Stephen Nover
Tuesday's Plays 50- Dime BOWLING GREEN

NOTE - I was hoping the Falcons and Saints would score field goals rather than touchdowns, but that wasn't the case. The combined eight touchdowns took care of my under play saddling me with a five-dime loser.

This was the highest total of the season, but it didn't matter. The Saints offense is clicking on all cylinders. From now on it's either play New Orleans over or don't get involved with the total.

I did win on my complementary play of the Sacramento Kings to defeat the Memphis Grizzlies. This was my fifth straight winning free pick selection, but I was fortunate with Sacramento prevailing in overtime.

I've won on my last four NBA plays. I have a free NBA play again today along with one of my strongest plays of the college season and easily my strongest Tuesday play of the year on the Bowling Green-Buffalo matchup.

50- Dime BOWLING GREEN - Buffalo's dream season of a year ago has become a faded memory. Multiple injuries and Mid-American Conference losses to Temple, Central Michigan and Western Michigan have zapped much of the spirit from the Bulls.

The defending MAC champion Bulls have a losing record, both straight-up and against the spread. They gave up more than 500 yards of total offense in their last game, a 34-31 overtime loss at Western Michigan.

Worse, the Bulls lost two more players. Defensive end Willie Mosely and safety Chris Storr are both out for the season after getting injured in that loss to Western Michigan. The Bulls have a cluster injury problem at several spots, including their secondary. They have only one healthy defensive back among their first and second string units.

Bowling Green is a heavy passing team with a ratio of 408 passes to 165 rushes. Tyler Sheehan is one of the top quarterbacks in the country and he has one of the best targets in Freddie Barnes, who is No. 1 in the nation in receptions (99) and yardage (1,054 yards). He's scored Nine touchdowns.

No foe has stopped the Sheehan/Barnes combination yet. Buffalo isn't going to end that streak with its battered secondary.

The Bulls also have injuries in their offensive line and at running back where their two best ball carriers, Ide Nduka and Brandon Thermilus, are each questionable with ankle injuries.

Buffalo has a good passing attack, too. But the Falcons have come on defensively holding Ball State to 17 points and high-scoring Central Michigan to 24 points, nearly a touchdown below its season average.

Bowling Green has covered nine of the past 11 times it has been a road underdog. Buffalo has failed to cover the past five times it has been a home favorite. This has been a 'dog series lately with the underdog covering in each of the past four meetings.

[banks58]

Stephen Nover

Phoenix at MIAMI

One the heels of an overtime winner on the Kings, we take the Under in this Interconference clash.

One of the hardest lines for the oddsmaker to make is an NBA total where there are contrasting styles. You won't have a bigger example of this than the Suns-Heat matchup.

The Suns are No. 1 offensively averaging 117.3 points. The Heat rank first in defensive field goal percentage at 38.6 percent and are tops in 3-point defensive field goal percentage holding foes to 21.6 percent from beyond the arc. Miami is yielding 87.7 points per game, the fifth-lowest in the NBA.

The situation, spot and handicap favor defense over offense in this matchup.

Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has always stressed defense since taking over in Miami two years ago. It's not a fluke the Heat are playing so well on defense.

Jermaine O'Neal suffered a broken nose in Miami's last game. He'll probably play but may be limited. That could open up more playing time for reserve big man Joel Anthony. O'Neal is a scorer. Anthony is a shot-blocker ranking sixth in the category despite playing just 18 minutes per game.

The Suns are running again under Alvin Gentry. Steve Nash still is highly effective. However, Amare Stoudamire isn't 100 percent yet and Leandro Barbosa has a sore wrist.

The Suns are 3-0, but their victims have been the Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves. These teams have a combined record of 2-9 with none expected to make the playoffs. None of the three rank among the top 13 teams in scoring defense either.

So the Suns are stepping up in class for the first time. This is the beginning of a five-game, seven-day road journey for the Suns. They will travel nearly 7,000 miles during this trip.

If the Heat were to get a big lead, Gentry very well could save his team's legs by joining the Heat in slowing the ball down while going more to his bench.

3♦ UNDER