Bowling Green (3-5 SU and ATS) at Buffalo (3-5, 3-4 ATS)
Two teams coming off losses to Michigan schools get together for a Mid-American Conference East Division showdown, as the Falcons visit Buffalo for a prime-time matchup.
Bowling Green followed up a pair of conference road wins over Kent State (36-35) and Ball State (31-17) with a 24-10 home loss to Central Michigan on Oct. 24, failing to cover as a 9½-point underdog. The Falcons are just 2-5 SU and ATS since a season-opening 17-point rout of Troy, and they’re 2-2 SU and ATS on the road this season.
The Bulls took Western Michigan to overtime on Oct. 24, falling 34-31 to snap a modest two-game win streak, though they covered as a 5½-point road underdog. Like Bowling Green, Buffalo opened the season with a victory (23-17 at UTEP as a 10½-point ‘dog), but since then it has dropped five of seven, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS against Division I-A competition. Buffalo is 2-2 (2-1 ATS) at home.
Two of the last three meetings between these schools have gone into overtime, including last year’s matchup at Bowling Green, which Buffalo won 40-34 as a 4½-point road underdog. The Bulls trailed 14-0 and 27-7 but battled back and scored the tying touchdown with 37 seconds left, then prevailed in double-overtime to end a four-game SU losing streak to Bowling Green. Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, with the underdog covering in all four contests and the road team going 3-0 ATS in the last three.
Bowling Green has scored 20 points or less in four of its games (going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS) and 31 points or more in its other four games (going 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS). Behind quality QB Tyler Sheehan (2,677 passing yards, 15 TDs, 5 INTs), the Falcons are averaging 406.5 total yards per game (341.4 passing ypg). Defensively, Bowling Green surrenders 28.4 ppg, yielding 24 or more in five of eight games, and the Falcons are getting out-rushed by an average of 149 ypg (214-65).
After scoring only 93 points in their first five contests (18.6 per game) – tallying 23 or less four times – the Bulls have scored 92 in their last three (30.7 ppg). They roll up 411 total yards of offense per game, including 149.5 rushing ypg (4.2 per carry), but the defense gives up 25.6 points and 353 total ypg (150 rushing ypg). The Bulls have yielded 33.6 ppg in their five defeats compared with just 12.3 ppg in their three wins.
Bowling Green is on positive ATS runs of 9-2 on the road, 4-0 as a road ‘dog, 6-1 in November, 7-3 against losing teams and 7-3 after a non-cover. However, in addition to going 1-5 ATS in their last six overall, the Falcons have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 after a bye, four of five on Tuesday and four straight following an outright loss.
The Bulls are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 against opponents with a losing record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 November outings, but otherwise they’re in pointspread slumps of 1-6 at home, 0-5 as a favorite (all at home) and 1-5-1 after a bye.
The Falcons have topped the total in four straight Tuesday contests and four of five after a bye, but Bowling Green also carries “under” trends of 7-3 overall, 9-4 in MAC action, 6-1 on the road, 9-1 as an underdog and 7-0 as a road pup. Buffalo has stayed low in four of its last five at home, but the over is 7-3 in its last 10 MAC games and 5-2 in its last seven in November. Finally, the under has cashed in all three Falcons-Bulls meetings in Buffalo this decade.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
Boston (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (2-1 SU and ATS)
The Celtics try to become the first NBA team to get to 5-0 when they travel to the Wachovia Center for an Atlantic Division clash with the 76ers.
After opening the season with a 95-89 upset victory at Cleveland as a five-point underdog, Boston went home and scored three straight double-digit routs of Charlotte (92-59), Chicago (118-90) and New Orleans (97-87). The Celtics covered easily as a double-digit favorite against the Bobcats and Bulls, but came up just start as an 11-point chalk in Sunday’s win over the Hornets. Boston’s defense is in midseason form, yielding just 81.2 ppg, holding all four opponents to 90 points or less.
Philadelphia followed up a 120-106 season-opening loss at Orlando with a pair of blowout wins, crushing the Bucks 99-86 as a six-point home favorite on Friday and the Knicks 141-127 in overtime as a 2½-point road chalk Saturday. In the victory at New York, four Sixers scored at least 20 points and three had double-doubles, led by Andre Iguodala’s 32 points and 11 rebounds, and Philly shot 60.7 percent from the field and had a 49-31 rebounding edge.
Boston swept the season series against Philadelphia last year, going 3-1 ATS. However, after two blowout home wins (102-78; 110-91), the Celtics barely held on at the Wachovia Center, winning 100-99 as a three-point favorite and 100-98 as a 6½-point ‘dog in a meaningless game in mid-April. The Celtics have won seven of the last eight meetings, going 6-2-1 ATS, including 2-1-1 ATS in Philadelphia.
Going back several years, the Celtics are on a 12-4-1 ATS roll in this rivalry and they’re 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 trips to Philly. Also, the visitor is 17-8-1 ATS in the past 26 head-to-head meetings, and the SU winner is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine.
Boston is on additional ATS runs of 9-3-1 on the road, 37-17-2 against Atlantic Division foes and 9-2 following a non-cover. Philadelphia carries positive pointspread runs of 4-0 after a SU win, 7-1 after a double-digit victory and 5-1 when playing on two days’ rest.
The under is 6-2 in Boston’s last eight games (2-2 this year), but otherwise the over is on stretches of 5-0 for Boston against Atlantic Division rivals, 6-1 for Boston on Tuesday, 4-1 for Philadelphia in divisional contests, 8-2-1 for Philly when playing on two days’ rest and 11-5 for Philadelphia on Tuesday. Finally, the over is 13-6 in the last 19 series clashes at the Wachovia Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
Phoenix (3-0, 1-2 ATS) at Miami (3-0 SU and ATS)
The Suns begin a five-game, seven-day Eastern Conference road trip with a stop at American Airlines Arena for a clash with the Heat in a battle of unbeaten teams.
Phoenix, which ended last season on a three-game winning streak, has won three in a row to start this year, albeit against the Clippers (109-107 on the road), Warriors (123-101 at home) and Timberwolves (120-112 at home). The Suns have scored at least 109 points throughout their six-game winning streak (average of 116.3 ppg), but they’re just 3-3 ATS (all as a favorite), including failing to cover as a 13-point home favorite against Minnesota on Sunday.
Like Phoenix, Miami has feasted on a soft schedule to begin the season, pounding the Knicks (115-93 at home), Pacers (96-83 on the road) and Bulls (95-87). Going back to last year’s playoff series against Atlanta – which Miami lost in seven games – the Heat have held 11 of 12 opponents to 96 points or less, yielding 90 or fewer six times. Dwyane Wade, who won the league scoring title last year, is off to a fast start, pouring 27.7 points per contest.
The Heat have won three in a row and cashed in four straight in this rivalry (all as an underdog). Last year, Miami prevailed 107-92 as an eight-point road ‘dog and 135-129 as a 2½-point home favorite. Prior to the Heat’s current three-game SU winning streak against Phoenix, the Suns had won five in a row in this series.
The visitor is 5-2 SU in the last seven series meetings, but the host has cashed in eight of the last 11, with the Suns going 1-7 ATS in their last eight visits to South Beach. Also, the winner has scored at least 106 points in Nine of the past 10 matchups, and the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10.
Phoenix has cashed in seven straight games after a non-cover, while Miami is on pointspread surges of 4-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 9-2-1 on Tuesday and 21-8-1 against the Pacific Division.
The last four meetings between these teams have topped the total, and the over is also 4-0 in Miami’s last four games against the Pacific Division and 4-0 in its last four against teams with a winning record. However, the under is on runs of 4-1 for the Heat overall, 4-1 for the Heat at home, 6-0 for the Heat after a spread-cover, 6-2 for the Suns at home, 4-0 for the Suns on the road and 7-1 for the Suns against Southeast Division opponents.
The sports advisors 11/2
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