Are the Falcons going to win this game outright? Doubtful. The Saints proved they can come back from almost any deficit after last weeks victory over the Dolphins. However, I do believe that Atlanta can do just enough to come away with an ATS victory with the large spread they are being afforded this week.
The Falcons are eager to rebound from last Sunday’s disappointing 37-21 loss at Dallas. The Falcons can't sit back in zone defenses all day, with no pressure from the front four and will be taking a page out of the Dolphins book from a week ago; Miami was able to get some pressure on Drew Brees with an exotic blitz package and I expect the Falcons to throw something similar at him tonight.
Remember, Atlanta is 4-2 ATS its last six overall and, dating back to last season 7-3 SU its last ten.
On the other side of the field: New Orleans needed a gargantuan effort and a complete melt-down by the Dolphins to salvage last weeks win and cover; although they say they are every bit as motivated as when the season started, I believe Atlanta is more the hungry team in this situation, and look for the Saints to play with a small amount of complacency.
It's interesting to point out too that New Orleans is perfect in almost every ATS statistical category, however there is one "chink" in its seemingly impenetrable armor; over the last two years the Saints are a poor 5-6 ATS vs. division opponents.
Bottom line: The public is jumping all over the Saints and this line has continued to climb all week, turning the value on this matchup onto the visiting side. I expect Atlanta to play through some of its injuries and look for the FALCONS to improve to 4-1 ATS vs. division opponents this season! *9* Falcons.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons 11/2/09
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