Stephen Nover Monday's Plays 5 Dime UNDER Falcons/Saints - This is the largest total of the season so far. Once you get an over/under above 50 in the NFL, a lot has to break right for the total to go over.

I don't see that happening in this long-time division rivalry. The last time these two teams went above 54 points in a matchup was 2005.

The Saints' offense is clicking on all cylinders. The Falcons certainly are aware of that. Their strategy is going to be feed the ball to Michael Turner, one of the better workhorse running backs in the league. Atlanta wants to keep the ball away from Drew Brees. So expect a lot of Turner and short passes to reliable tight end Tony Gonzalez.

The Falcons' two most dangerous outside running back threats, Jerious Norwood (hip) and Jason Snelling (hamstring), didn't practice this week. I doubt either plays. The Falcons picked up former Saints running back Aaron Stecker to give Turner a breather. He lacks Norwood's home run ability to break a long play.

The Falcons have gone under 69 percent of the time during their past 56 road games.

New Orleans' defense has greatly improved under its new coordinator, Gregg Williams. Atlanta ranks eighth in scoring defense allowing 19 points per game.

The Saints are on pace to break the Patriots' single-season scoring record set two years ago. New Orleans' scoring total has been aided by its defense returning four interceptions for touchdowns.

Saints coach Sean Payton has dialed down his team's passing the last couple of games. The Saints have become more balanced. Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell have combined to rush 50 times during the last two weeks. More running, more clock being used.