The Rrez, Burns and Murphy all on Marshall
XPERT: The Prez
TITLE: SUN NITE CABINET CLUB CFB SIDE *27-11 RUN*
REASON FOR PICK:
PREZ' CABINET CLUB CFB SIDE
(231) MARSHALL at (232) UCF 8:15 PM
It's about time that Sunday night college football returned. And for College fanatics, they get the viewing pleasure of a C-USA East Division match-up between Marshall and Central Florida. Marshall has a lot to play for. The Herd is still the conversation for division crown and couldn't receive a better matchup at this juncture of the season.
Marshall's struggles have been offensive, but they find ways to win. The Herd's three losses this season have come at Virginia Tech, to a good East Carolina team at home and at West Virginia. No shame in that game.
Central Florida, for the most part, has been a surprise, despite their 4-3 record. The defense has, for the second straight season, been the glue in the teams four wins. Last year the Knights held six of their opponents to 17 points or fewer, but they were beaten in three of those games. The rush defense paced CUSA, giving up just 126 yards per game, and the unit tied for second in scoring defense (24 points per game) and was also second in total defense (334 yards per game). This year, has been much like lasts season, an offensive disaster, save their outburst against Rice a week ago, which will eventually come crashing down on them Sunday. Bench boss George O'Leary has a history of following up good offensive performances with stinkers. UCF is 1-9 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game during O'Leary's tenure, losing outright by more than a touchdown in this situation.
How bad is the UCF offense, they had failed to lead at halftime in any game this season until last weeks contest against the Owls. The Knights finished dead last in the conference in total offense with a paltry 229.5 yards per game last season. The running attack, which sorely missed Kevin Smith, totaled just 1,359 yards, a huge drop from the 2007 campaign when they reached the cofference finals, 1,928 yards fewer in fact. And the team averaged a miserable 116 yards passing per game also placing last in C-USA a year ago. This season they have been statistically better, but the numbers have been skewed in wins over Samford, Rice and their only really impressive game at home this year, a win over Memphis that saw them score 34 points.
Marshall grinds it out offensively, and never puts themselves in a position to give away points. Their defense has made huge strides from just a season ago. Defensive coordinator Rick Minterk in his second season for Marshall, has made huge strides. His defense allowed 79 fewer points last year than it did in 2007, and has made even larger statitical jumps this year. The Herd held Tulane to 10 points this season, Bowling Green to 10, UAB to seven and Memphis to 16, all of these teams with a much more experienced and explosive offense than that of UCF. The Knights seem to choke on their home turf. They have averaged less than five points in the first half of all their home games and have allowed their opponents to complete nearly 65 percent of their pass attempts.
It's unlikely that UCF is looking past Marshall, a conference opponent, but the group has to be excited about the chance to challenge Texas in Austin next weekend.
It has been extremely profitable to play against home favorites (UCF) coming off a conference win with a season winning percentage just above .500, between .510 and .600. Vegas tends to shade these home teams more, especially in events that will receive national exposure. The trend has cashed at a 70% clip, 60-27, over the last five CFB campaigns.
Should UCF be favored at home? Yes, but we made UCF less than a field goal favorite at the begging of the week and getting a touchdown in a game we project to be a low scoring defensive affair offers far too much value to pass on.
6* Play on Marshall
Just so you know Merril is on UCF
GL!
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Ericg320
