[guyc]

Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
***BUFFALO 23 Houston (-3.5) 19
10:00 AM Pacific, 01-Nov-09
I'll take Buffalo in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -115 odds or better.

2 Star Selection
**Jacksonville 25 TENNESSEE (-3.0) 20
01:05 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-09
I'll take Jacksonville in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.

2 Star Selection
**NEW ORLEANS (-10.0) 33 Atlanta 17
05:30 PM Pacific, 02-Nov-09
I'll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at-10 points or less.

Strong Opinion
Denver 21 BALTIMORE (-3.5) 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 01-Nov-09
In other words, Baltimore only dominated mediocre and bad teams at home.

Strong Opinion
Carolina 16 ARIZONA (-10.0) 21
01:15 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-09
I'll consider Carolina a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more based on the strong technical analysis.

[guyc]

Dr. Bob Write ups

3 Star Selection
***BUFFALO 23 Houston (-3.5) 19
10:00 AM Pacific, 01-Nov-09
Houston has always been an inconsistent team and the Texans are certainly due for a letdown after winning consecutive games for the first time this season. Houston is just 14-25-1 ATS after a victory in their history, including 4-16 ATS on the road after a win. Houston also applies to a negative 76-163-4 ATS scheduling situation and Buffalo comes into this game with plenty of confidence after consecutive wins over the Jets and Panthers. Home dogs are good bets when playing with confidence and the Bills apply to a very good 89-36-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation that is an even better 35-8-1 ATS if the home dog is coming off back-to-back wins. A 21-1 ATS subset of that angle applies to this game and Buffalo also applies to a 50-24-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that plays on home dogs when facing a team with a winning record that has a bad defense. That angle certainly makes sense, as road favorites with a bad defense have always been bad bets. Houston has allowed 5.9 yards per play for the season (against teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defense) and the Texans have given up 5.6 yppl in every game except against the feeble Raiders' offense. Buffalo is a bad offensive team, but their 0.8 yppl worse than average offensive rating is the same as Houston's defensive rating, so the Bills should move the ball at a decent rate.

Buffalo has just an average defense (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team), but the Bills' strength is in pass defense (5.2 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.1 yppp) and that matches up well against a pass-heavy Texans offense that hasn't been able to run the ball.

My math model favors Houston by just 2 points, so we have a bit of line value to go along with the very strong technical analysis favoring the Bills. I'll take Buffalo in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -115 odds or better.

2 Star Selection
**Jacksonville 25 TENNESSEE (-3.0) 20
01:05 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-09
Bye weeks usually help struggling teams regain their footing a bit and bad teams tend to refocus themselves during their week off, but the positive trends associated with betting on bad teams off a bye are only for underdogs. For the 0-6 Titans to be favored by 3 points in this game is simply ridiculous. Tennessee may have been 13-3 last season, but this team is nothing like last year's team and I didn't think they would be. I actually had the Titans pre-season rating at +0.6 points, which is basically an average team. I had Jacksonville's pre-season rating at -0.8, so I would have favored Tennessee by just 4 points had this game been played in week 1. Since then the Titans have gone 0-6 and proven to be worse than an average team while Jacksonville is slightly worse than average as I expected them to be. Tennessee's stats actually aren't that bad for a winless team, as I rate the Titans' offense at just 0.2 yards per play worse than average for the season while their defense has been only 0.2 yppl worse than average too (6.1 yppl allowed to a schedule of good offensive teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). Poor special teams play and at -10 turnover margin is why the Titans are winless. The turnover margin is not likely to be as bad going forward - although with Vince Young at quarterback they're still likely to turn the ball over more than their opponents - but special teams don't appear to be getting any better and they've cost the Titans just over 2 points per game in field position.

While Tennessee isn't as bad as their record, the Titans are worse now than they were a few weeks ago, as they've been forced to start two rookie cornerbacks in place of injured veterans Nick Harper and Cortland Finnegan, who is also one of the best corners in run support in the league. Tennessee's defense was actually very good the first 3 games with all of their starters, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team, but Finnegan was hurt in game 3 and hasn't played since and Harper joined him on the bench in week 6. In two games without Finnegan, but with Harper, the Titans allowed 6.1 yppl to Jacksonville and Indy, who would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team, so the loss of Finnegan resulted in the unit going from 0.7 yppl better than average to 0.1 yppl worse than average. The loss of Harper made things even worse, as Harper is the best pass defending corner on the team and one of the better corners in the league last year, when he allowed just 6.0 yards per pass as the defender of record. In week 6 when both Finnegan and Harper were out the Titans lost 0-59 to New England and gave up 626 yards at 8.5 yppl and it was actually over 9 yppl when Tom Brady was in the game. Harper probably will miss another game or two and there is a chance that Finnegan might play, but he was limited in practice on Thursday and probably wouldn't be 100% if he did play. The Titans enter this game with a defense that I conservatively rate at 0.5 yppl worse than average (although based on that one game in New England that could be way too low). Jacksonville is 0.2 yppl better than average for the season, but their rushing attack has struggled the last two games without RG Mo Williams, who is a very good run blocker. The Jaguars are still average offensively even if Williams misses a 3rd consecutive game (he's questionable), so they should move the ball well in this game as they did in their 37-17 home win over the Titans in week 4 (445 yards at 6.7 yppl in that win).

I mentioned that Tennessee's offense has been 0.2 yppl worse than average this season, but the offense is likely going to be worse with Vince Young getting the start at quarterback. Young has been only 0.2 yards per pass play worse then Kerry Collins over their careers, but Young has a career interception percentage of 4.2%, which is incredibly high (the league average this year is 2.9%). Jacksonville is 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively and will be about 0.2 yppl worse than that if top CB Mathis doesn't play due to a broken index finger. If I assume Mathis does not play then my math projects the Titans with 353 yards at 5.7 yppl. However, the math predicts Jacksonville with 363 total yards at 5.8 yppl and gives the Jaguars a 2.2 points edge in projected turnovers (Young is turnover prone and Jags quarterback Garrard is not (2.0% lifetime interceptions and just 3 in 6 games this season for 1.4%)). Jacksonville also has an edge in special teams, as the Jaguars are above average in that regard. Add it all up and I get Jacksonville by 5 points. I have no doubt that the Titans will come out fired up, but I just don't think they're good enough to win with Young at quarterback and with two rookie corners. The Titans do apply to a pretty good 193-124-8 ATS angle that plays on losing teams that have an ATS record that is 4 games or more below .500, but that angle will only keep me from making this a bigger play. I'll take Jacksonville in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.

2 Star Selection
**NEW ORLEANS (-10.0) 33 Atlanta 17
05:30 PM Pacific, 02-Nov-09
New Orleans suffered a letdown last week and they still managed to come from behind and cover the spread in Miami. The Saints are now 6-0 ATS and I see no reason why that streak will end at home on Monday Night Football. The Saints' offense is averaging 40 points per game and the only two games in which they did not score 45 points or more were against the Jets and Bills, the two best pass defenses that the Saints have faced. Atlanta does not have a good pass defense (6.4 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.2 yppp against an average team), so I don't see Drew Brees being stopped in this game. The Saints also have a good rushing attack and Atlanta is worse than average defending the run too (4.8 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average team).

The Falcons have a reputation for having a good offense, but that unit is actually barely better than average with 5.4 yards per play coming against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. New Orleans, meanwhile, has a good defense has allowed 4.9 yppl this season and rates at 0.5 yppl better than average.

My math model favors New Orleans by 13 points and the Saints apply to a very good 67-15-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 14-1 ATS when applying to favorites of more than 7 points. Atlanta's loss last week may have them fired up to play well tonight (they're 5-1 ATS after a loss), but winning teams that are coming off a loss are just 18-44-1 ATS as Monday night visitors, including 12-39-1 ATS if the home team has a win percentage of .400 or higher. New Orleans, meanwhile, is now a perfect 10-0 ATS the last two seasons as a favorite of more than 3 points, so they're not the type of team to let up. I'll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at-10 points or less.

Strong Opinion
Denver 21 BALTIMORE (-3.5) 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 01-Nov-09
Denver is once again an underdog despite being undefeated and coming off wins in their last 3 games (all as dogs) over Dallas, New England and San Diego. Baltimore is another good challenge for the Denver, but the Broncos are a better team than the Ravens. Denver is just average moving the ball on offense (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), but quarterback Kyle Orton has not thrown an interception all year (his lone pick was on a hail mary pass to end the half in week 5). Orton should have a good game against a horrible Ravens' secondary that misses injured CB Samari Rolle. Baltimore has given up 7.2 yards per pass play (to quarterbacks that would average 6.3 yppp against an average team) and the Ravens are 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively overall (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team) even with their good run defense.

The Ravens are winning because of their offense this season, as that unit has generated an impressive 6.1 yppl against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team, but Denver's defense is considerably better than that. The Broncos' quick and aggressive stop unit has yielded just 4.4 yppl this season to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team and they limited good offensive teams Dallas, New England, and San Diego to just 4.9 yppl in their last 3 games (those teams would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average team).

As you can see, the Broncos have an advantage regardless of which team has the ball and Baltimore's special teams are just as bad as Denver's special teams. With Denver being the better team there is certainly value in taking 3 1/2 points in this game. Once again, that line is saying that Denver is the inferior team in this game and that just isn't the case. My math model favors the Broncos by 4 1/2 points and my other model, which tends to deviate less from the actual line, favors Baltimore by just 2 points. Both models give Denver a 60% chance of covering at +3 1/2 points, but I'll resist making the Broncos a Best Bet in this game because of a 33-6 ATS situation and a 56-24-3 ATS statistical indicator that both favor the Ravens. Those angles will only keep me from making Denver a Best Bet, but I'll consider Denver a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more. By the way, I realize that Baltimore is 45-21-2 ATS as a home favorite, but they're 0-4 ATS as a home favorite against teams that are 4 games or more above .500 and have a win percentage of .750 or higher. In other words, Baltimore only dominated mediocre and bad teams at home.

Strong Opinion
Carolina 16 ARIZONA (-10.0) 21
01:15 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-09
If Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme stops throwing 2.2 interceptions per game the Panthers would be a pretty good team. Delhomme has thrown 89 interceptions in 87 career starts, which is bad, but the Panthers would be about 5 points per game better if Delhomme starts to thrown interceptions at his normal rate, and he's certainly much more likely to throw closer to 1 pick per game than 2. The Panthers are a decent team when they're not turning it over 3.5 times per games, as their offense is 0.5 yards per play worse than average with Delhomme under center while the Panthers' defense is 0.4 yppl better than average, allowing just 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Arizona is surprisingly just average offensively, averaging 5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team and their 22.7 points average is nothing special. I expect Carolina to defend the Cardinals pretty well in this game, which makes covering as a double-digit dog a lot easier to do.

The Panthers' biggest problem will be moving the ball against a very good Arizona defense that's allowed just 5.0 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit. My math model projects Arizona with a 331 yards to 248 yards edge and for the Cardinals to have a 0.6 turnover differential (on average) with Delhomme's predicted interceptions at 1.4. Special teams have been horrible for Carolina and the Cardinals have a pretty significant advantage in that department and my math favors Arizona by 12 points in this game. However, Carolina applies to a solid 111-53-1 ATS contrary angle that plays on teams with horrible point spread records and Arizona applies to a negative 49-93-3 ATS big favorite letdown situation coming off their upset win against the Giants. I'll consider Carolina a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more based on the strong technical analysis.

The math model chance to cover listed below is based on the historical performance of my model for each difference from the line and does not take into account key numbers or any situational analysis, which may favor the opposite side (as has been the case numerous times this season). Please read my full analysis of a game to find out what my final prediction is. All games not part of the Best Bet email can be found on the site in the free analysis section.