Mr east
MR EAST
NCAAF GAME OF THE MONTH
5 UNITS INDIANA HOOSIERS +17.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes have taken care of business in every game on their schedule, and are sitting at 8-0, and atop of the Big-10 standings. They have done this with an outstanding defense, that is allowing just 14.8ppg. The defense has certainly been the reason, as the offense is not indicative of an 8-0 team. The Hawkeyes offense ranks just 87th out of 120 teams, and is generating just 3.4ypc, this despite of the fact the defense gives them the ball with good field position, and many opportunities, but the Hawkeye offense comes away empty more often than not. It is also the reason, that despite a top level defense, the Hawkeyes have half their 8 wins by a FG or less, and 3 other wins by 11 points or less. The 2 times they scored 30+ points on the season, they had a combined 11 opponent turnovers. Those 11 extra possessions, didn't translate into the points they should of either, as the Hawkeye offense could not top 35 in those games either. If you exclude the 2 games that produced 11 turnovers the offense has averaged 20.8ppg, and this is asking a lot for a team lacking in offense to cover a spread of 17.5. Teams that rank 85th or lower offensively have been a favorite of 12 or more points in conference play just 9 times this season, and are 3-6 ATS. The highest posted line has been -18.5, so they are certainly overpriced here because of their 8-0 record. They have just had 3 straight wars vs Michigan,Wisconsin, and Michigan St., so the intensity level here could be down as well. The Hoosiers aren't a good team, but they are a much improved team, and better than percieved, as they are 5-2 ATS, and played Northwestern to a 1 point game, and Michigan to a 3 point game. At this stage of the season, a team off of 2 consecutive road wins (week 5 through 9) are just 32-72 the last 10 years, covering just 30% of over 100 games. This one figures to be closer than it appears, and I'm backing Indiana in my NCAAF GOM!!!
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