[Hustler]

anybody got em?

[sLim901]

Jeff Benton
Friday's winner ... 15 Dime: SOUTH FLORIDA (plus the points vs. West Virginia)


South Florida

I’m willing to give South Florida a bit of a pass for their performances in their last two games. Two weeks ago, the Bulls were unbeaten and ranked 21st nationally when they got blitzed at home by eighth-ranked Cincinnati 34-17 as a one-point home underdog. No shame in that, as the Bearcats are a legitimate Top 5 team (which is why I backed Cincinnati with a 20 Dime play against South Florida in that one). Then last week, South Florida went to Pitt and got creamed 41-14 as a 6½-point underdog, and while I don’t believe Pitt is THAT good, the fact is the Panthers were ranked 20th last week and they were playing on their home field. More than that, though, I believe the Bulls fell into a classic trap that a lot of college football teams fall into: Those teams that are undefeated well into October and lose their first game often have a “letdown” effect the next game. To me, last week was South Florida’s “letdown” game.

Now that they’re back home, back on national TV and hosting another Top 25 team, I expect the Bulls to be very much rejuvenated and eager to prove to the world that A) their 5-0 start, which including a 17-7 win at then-No. 18 Florida State, was not a fluke, and B) they’re much better than they’ve shown the last two weeks.

I do acknowledge that South Florida freshman QB B.J. Daniels is going to have to step up his game, as he’s clearly regressed the last two weeks. But the kid does have skills, and I trust that underrated USF coach Jim Leavitt will get him fixed. This much is known: He’s got the kind of speed and athleticism that can give West Virginia’s defense fits.

As for the Mountaineers, I not so sure they’re not a fraud. They got pushed around by UConn last week, with the Huskies’ pedestrian offense putting up 501 yards. If not for a big second half by talented West Virginia’s talented running back Noel Devine – whose 56-yard TD run with 2:10 to play erased a 24-21 deficit and gave the Mountaineers a 28-24 win – UConn would’ve won that game as a 7½-point underdog. West Virginia also struggled to put away the likes of East Carolina, Colorado and Marshall, and the best team they faced to this point – Auburn – beat the Mountaineers 41-30 (and Auburn has since proven to be a fraud, too).

South Florida has been a tough matchup for West Virginia since joining the Big East, with the teams splitting four meetings and the Bulls cashing in the last three (all as a ‘dog). That includes a 21-13 home win as a 7-point ‘dog in 2007 when West Virginia was ranked fifth in the nation.

Bottom line: The Bulls have the team speed, especially on defense, to give West Virginia trouble all year. And with the way they force turnovers (and with the Mountaineers give up the football), we could see some easy scores for the home team. South Florida is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games, while West Virginia has failed to cover in seven of its last Nine overall (1-4 ATS last five), going 2-6 ATS as a favorite. Look for South Florida to take the field with a chip on its shoulder and win this game outright (though we’ll take the points just to be safe).