Although the spread is sizable, we certainly do not like UNC QB Yates against the Hokies superb defense. The Tar Heels are averaging just 289.3 YPG on the offensive side of the ball and have lost three straight conference games. Yates has a lousy TD:INT ratio of 7:8, which is pretty unacceptable at this level. Since allowing Alabama to run wild in the opener, the VA Tech defense has been dominant, allowing just 317 yards and 19 points per game. Their one weakness is against the run, but note that the Tar Heels have rushed for 39 yards or less as a team in three different games this season. The Carolina defense has also been good, but they absolutely collapsed last Thursday at home vs. Florida State and who knows how they will respond from such a crushing loss? Plus, the Virginia Tech rushing attack of QB Taylor and RB Williams will be the toughest they've faced all season. Since joining the ACC, the Hokies have won all five meetings with the Tar Heels, so they seem to have their number. North Carolina has failed to score more than 17 points in each of the last four meetings. VA Tech has had a couple extra days to prepare (last played on 10/17), is coming off a loss, and is 12-6 ATS coming off a bye. They are also an excellent 14-3 ATS in Thursday night games (9-2 ATS at home) and have won 12 straight home games overall. UNC is just 1-13 SU in ACC road games outside of the Tar Heel State and in their last 16 road games against ranked opponents, the average loss has come by 22.6 PPG. Virginia Tech is our CFB Oddsmaker Mismatch.
Lenny Del Genio 10/29
Reply With Quote