The Lightning got off to a pretty rough start but they’ve played dramatically better in its last two games, a 5-2 win over San Jose and a 3-2 OT loss to the Sabres. That’s the Lightning team I, for one, was expecting to see this year, as I believe they’re one of the most improved squads in terms of off-season moves. Furthermore, they went into Ottawa two weeks ago and were absolutely buried 7-1 and looked completely out of sorts. There is no way that shellacking is not on their collective minds and as a result they’ll play their hearts out here. The Lightning are very well-rested, as they’ve been off since Saturday and when they beat the Sharkies 5-2 on Oct 22 they were on five days rest in that one as well. Mike Smith seems to have his groove back. The Sens won last night but were outplayed in Florida and only the goaltending of Pascal Leclair prevented the Panthers from winning. The Sens will play the tail end of back-to-backs here and while they’re still playing far above expectations, this is a good spot for the Lightning to keep it going. The Bolts early season poor record makes them one of the most undervalued teams in the business and hopefully we can take advantage of that over the next couple of weeks. Play: Tampa Bay -˝ +1.45 (Risking 2 units).