Chris Jordan 10/28
Chris Jordan Wednesday's winner ...
600♦ N.Y. YANKEES RUN LINE (LIST Sabathia and Lee) - I did a lot of pondering with this one, knowing how well both hurlers can throw, knowing how powerful C.C. Sabathia is and knowing the heat Cliff Lee brings every inning he is in the game.
But you know, when I weigh the pros and cons of both, there is more reason to side with Sabathia than there is to taking Lee in Yankees Stadium in Game 1 of the World Series. Honestly, as much as I believe the Yankees win this series – but would never lay 2-to-1 odds against the defending World Series champs – I also believe this is the must-win game for the Bombers right off the bat.
“Beat Cliff Lee bad, own the series!” That should be the mantra.
Lee, admittedly, has improved his delivery each season. And being in the National League, he’s much more impressive. But where he is going to struggle is with his aggressiveness. He cannot do the same types of things he did against the Rockies and Dodgers, in the World Series against the Yankees. I know he can attack the strike zone with four solid pitches, and I know that change fades nicely from right-handed batters; but the fact is, prior to the postseason, Lee was 2-4 with a no decision over his last seven starts.
And if I go back to when he was pitching against American League teams regularly, I see he was 7-9 with six no-decisions; and the Indians were 1-5 in those no-decisions, which means Cleveland was 8-14 in his 22 starts this season. And if you’re wondering, the answer is YES, Lee did face the Bombers once this season. On May 29 he lasted six innings and gave up three earned runs in Cleveland in a 3-1 loss.
Hey, I agree that Lee has been a spark to this rotation. I agree it’s uncanny the two best pitchers in the postseason were teammates just a season and a half ago and are now facing one another tonight. But let’s be real … the Dodgers’ hitters even compare to the Yankees? What about the Rockies? And that 2-4 stretch over his last seven starts, you know who the wins came against? The lowly Washington Nationals. And in D.C., he was pelted for 10 hits and four earned runs. His ERA since Aug. 29 is 4.07.
Sorry, but his fast-paced pitching style is going to be tempered nicely by New York’s veteran lineup, and the Yankees sluggers are going to work him over nicely tonight.
As for Sabathia, well, he brings that long three-quarters overhead arm action that is enhanced with a slight hesitation over the rubber. It’s a deceptive delivery because he hides the ball well and it’s extremely tough to gauge when he’s bringing heat, not to mention playing catch up with it because he varies the speed between 91 and 96 miles per hour. His heater has very good life, and he’s found a knack for jamming the crossbreed of a cut fastball and a slider up and in on right-handed hitters. I mean it comes in perfectly right at the hands, and it’s devastating to power hitters. He also has a flair for opening up the strike zone with a wicked slurve to batters on the left side of the dish. And when he really decides to get nasty, his overpowering presence employs good arm speed to fire a circle change at hitters.
I think the Phils are a capable bunch, with their American League-like lineup, but tonight is not their night. I just don’t see it. You know who might do well, because he can utilize his bat speed and power from either side of the plate … Shane Victorino. But he’s going to be left on base one too many times tonight. Ryan Howard you say? He’s going to have problems in Game 1. That’s my feeling.
Look, this is going to be a great series, don’t get me wrong; but tonight this is going to be a run-line gift. Look for the Yanks to win by a score of something like 5- or 6-2.
Paid and confirmed by me
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