4* #506 PORTLAND over HOUSTON With a young roster filled with not only talented players, but the right kind of talent, the Portland Trail Blazers bring a lot of D?s to the able ? Discipline, Defense, Determination and Depth. That takes you a long way in this league, as we saw in a 2008-09 campaign in which many thought that they were ahead of schedule, but they were not ? the combination of talent + work ethic gives them a chance to assimilate much more quickly than the norm. On offense their chemistry and patience saw them #2 in efficiency on our best set of ratings; on defense it was #10; and they were at the top or near the top in every key rebounding category, a tribute to the Determination aspects. And the only glaring negative statistic was one that they could not control, and should actually reverse a bit this season ? they were dead last in opponents Free Throw percentage, watching helplessly as an 80.6 was drained against them. The latter really does matter ? over the course of the season that can have a definite impact on power ratings. So what happens when all of those D?s are combined? You become a beast at home. The Trail Blazers were 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS on this court after the All Star break LY, and went 13-7 ATS in their last 20 when laying -7 or more here. They simply wear weaker teams down, and we expect them to become ever strong in that category this season, with the addition of Andre Miller making the second unit (for now, eventually we believe that he will move to a starting spot) arguably the league?s best. That all spells bad news for the Rockets, who have an awful time matching up. It is one thing to transition from having Yao Ming, Ron Artest and Tracy McGrady, which would cause headaches for anyone, but another matter entirely when a savvy front office had brought in a bunch of role players to surround the stars. Under those circumstances, guys like Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Luis Scola and Trevor Ariza make a great deal of sense. But now there is not a legitimate go-to scorer to be found, while also the lack of a defensive and rebounding presence in the paint. It also means that promising PG Aaron Brooks will struggle to take the next step, since opposing defenders can help off of their man to negate his drives. Let?s let Rick Adelman explain it for us - ?The way we're going to have to do it is we're going to have work harder than everybody else; we're going to have to be very consistent and play well as a team. This will be a progression for us ? There is a lot of uncertainty; there is no doubt about that. We lose all those points from people who are used to scoring those points, used to being the main guys. Now you just turn it over to people and try to get them to do more. We don't have that right now. We're still looking for it. That is going to cause us some uncertainty.? Those ?effort? aspects from the Rockets will actually make them decent plays some nights, as they play harder than favorites that will take them lightly. But that does not work against the focus that the Trail Blazers will bring for this particular tip-off, and while Nate McMillan can have his team go all-out here, with Wednesday off, Adelman will not chase all that hard from behind, since his Rockets have to play again on Wednesday night at Golden State, a pace that will require a lot of energy. That keeps the back-door firmly locked here in a game that the favorite dominates.
Dave Malinsky 10/27
Reply With Quote