The Vikings almost blew a 27-10 4th-quarter lead against the Ravens last Sunday but came back to take a 33-31 lead with 1:56 remaining, then survived when Baltimore kicker Steven Hauschka missed his late FG try wide. The NFC North-leading Vikings are now 6-0 (first time since 2003) and looking to move to 7-0 for the first time since 2000 (made NFC championship game that year). To get to 7-0, the Vikings will have to win at Pittsburgh, the defending Super Bowl champs, which have won three straight since a 1-2 start and will take a seven-game regular season home winning streak into the contest (nine in a row counting two wins in LY's postseason). Favre has completed 69.7% for 1,347 yards with 12 TDs and just two INTs and is third in the NFL with a 109.5 QB rating. AP's 618 rushing yards leads the NFL (seven TDs), as the combo has allowed Minnesota to average 31.5 PPG (2nd-highest in the NFL), having scored at least 27 points in all six games in 2009. While the Steelers are not running the ball like Pittsburgh teams of the past for the second straight season (rank 15th in the NFL at 107.0 YPG), check out Big Ben's numbers. He's completing 72.5% for 1,887 yards (No.2 in the NFL at 314.5 YPG) with 10 TDs and six INTs (104.5 QB rating is right behind Favre). Ward is No€. 1 in yards receiving (599), tied for first in receptions (41) and leads the NFL with 10 catches for 20-plus yards. The team's other Super Bowl MVP, Holmes, has 28 catches (15.6 YPC) plus TE Miller has 34 catches with four TDs. Let's get to the defenses. The Steelers allow 275.2 YPG (3rd) while the Vikings allow 341.8 YPG. Pittsburgh allows 74.5 YPG on the ground (2nd) while the Vikings allow 93.5 YPG. Pittsburgh's pass D allows 201.0 YPG (58.4%) while Minnesota's allows 248.0 YPG (64.9%). Safety Troy Polamalu is back for Pittsburgh but Minnesota CB Antoine Winfield suffered a sprained right foot in the second quarter vs Baltimore and may miss here. Bottom line is this. The Vikings are 6-0 but they've only out-gained TWO of six opponents (the Browns and 49ers), while the Steelers have out-gained all SIX of their opponents. Note that Pittsburgh just out-gained the Browns 543-197 (Minnesota out-gained them just 310-268), who have lost 11 of their last 12 games. The Rams, who have lost 16 straight games out-gained the Vikings 400-377 and the Lions, who have lost 22 of their last 23 matched the Vikings (265 yards to 265) in Week 2. My point is the Vikings are 'ripe' for a loss. I expected them to lose last week to the Ravens and won with the Ravens as my 25* Underdog GOY. I'm upping the ante in Week 7. Unlike the Broncos, Colts and Saints, the Vikings haven't been putting opponents away week after week. Minnesota could (should?) have lost to the 49ers, could have lost to the Packers and last week 'escaped' vs the Ravens, who had 4th-quarter scoring drives of 75, 73 and 33 yards before driving 41 yards and then missing a game-wining FG. Minnesota's "luck runs out" vs the defending champs and it won't be close! NFL 26* Pit Steelers.
25* NFL Side and Total Parlay of the Year (off 5-2 CFB week)
My 25* Side and Total Parlay of the Year is on the Dal Cowboys and Atl/Dal Over at 4:15 ET. The Cowboys have the league's second-rated offense (420.4 YPG) and third-rated rushing attack (161.0 YPG) but have averaged a rather modest 24.4 PPG (10 teams are averaging more). QB Tony Romo has received most of the blame and the Cowboys return off a bye week to host the 4-1 Falcons (last year was no fluke!). Dallas' week off was beneficial, as the Cowboys saw the other three teams in the NFC East all lose, putting the Cowboys into a second-place tie with the Eagles, 1 1/2 games behind the New Giants. The downside to Dallas' 3-2 start is the fact that all three wins have come against then-winless opponents (Tampa Bay, Carolina and Kansas City). The Cowboys needed OT in their most recent win, a 26-20 win at Kansas City (Oct 11). WR Austin Miles had a career-day in that one, catching 10 passes for a team-record 250 yards with two TDs (including the game-winner in OT). I won't give up just yet on Romo and with TE Witten (team-high 28 catches), Miles, Roy Williams and Crayton, the Cowboys' receiving corps may still develop into a potent unit. That group could have a big day against the Falcons, who placed starting CB Brian Williams on injured reserve Tuesday with a knee injury. The Dallas running game is expected to get a boost with the return of Felix Jones (212 YR / 10.1 YPC), who joins Barber (297 YR / 5.1 YPC) and Choice (225 YR / 5.1 YPC). I'm not sure there is a more versatile trio in the league. Atlanta's rush D is allowing 4.7 YPC and I expect Dallas to be able to both run and throw on the Falcons. Atlanta's running game ranked second to only the Giants in 2008 (152.7 YPG / 4.4 YPG), as Turner ran for 1,699 yards (4.5 YPC / 17 TDs). It hasn't been the same in 2009 though, averaging a modest 98.6 YPG (just 3.4 YPC), as Turner has only 353 YR (3.5 YPC), which is an average of 70.6 per game (averaged 106.2 LY!). Turner has a chest injury and has been limited in practice this week. The injury isn't expected to keep Turner out of this game but he'll have to work for yards against a Dallas defense which hasn't allowed a rushing TD or a 100-yard rusher since Week 1. Atlanta is relying more on QB Matt Ryan in 2009 and this year he not only has an excellent WR (White) but the Falcons have added future Hall-of-Fame TE Gonzalez. The Dallas pass D is vulnerable, allowing 62.8% for 251 YPG with eight TDs and just two INTs in 183 attempts (shutting down Ryan will not be easy). The good news on the Dallas side is that the pass rush, which had no sacks in its first two games, has recorded 10 in the next three. Balancing that however, is that Atlanta hasn't allowed a sack in its last four games after Matt Ryan was dropped twice in its opener. Bottom line is, I ses a high-scoring game. I do however favor the Cowboys to win, as the Falcons are in a brutal stretch. They had a Week 4 bye, then traveled cross-country to rout San Francisco 45-10, returned last Sunday night for a tough 21-14 home win over the Bears and this week are in Dallas (also must visit New Orleans next Monday night!). Meanwhile, the Cowboys are off a bye and the team has unanimously called this game. "the biggest of the season." Dallas came out of its bye week last year just 5-4 but returned to go 3-0 SU and ATS (outscored opponents 83-41). With Seattle up next at home (surely a game the team expects to win) but then road games at Philly and Green Bay to follow, the Cowboys know how important a win over the Falcons would be (Dallas would be 5-2 heading into its Philly/GB road trip). My Side and Total Parlay of the Year is a 25* on Dallas and the Over.
20* Club-80 Play-NFL (4-1 or 80% in FB '09!)
My 20* Club-80 Play is on the NY Giants at 8:20 ET. The last two NFC champions meet Sunday night at Giants Stadium, with the Cardinals seeking a third straight victory (now 3-2 after a 10-2 start) and the Giants still smarting more than a little from their first loss of the season in Week 6. The Giants opened the '09 season 5-0 but were blasted by Brees and the Saints in New Orleans (I had the Saints in that "Battle of New Orleans') last week to fall to 5-1. The Giants entered last week's game with the NFL's No.1 defense in YPG allowed (210.6) and were tied for second in points allowed (14.2). The pass D (despite some injuries) was allowing an almost hard to believe 105.0 YPG, as opposing QBs were completing just 52.4% with four TDs and five INTs while getting sacked 14 times. The Saints won 48-27, as Brees completed 23-of-30 passes for 369 yards with four TDs and zero INTs. However, despite that Brees onslaught, the Giants still enter this Week 7 Sunday night game at home with the NFL's top-rated D, (allowing 257.7 YPG). The pass D got battered last week but still allows just 149.0 YPG after six contests. Warner is of course still Warner, plus owns that fabulous WR trio of Boldin, Breaston and Fitzgerald. However, few would argue that Warner is still one of the NFL's least mobile QBs, which should have the Giants' DL (arguably the NFL's deepest and best) salivating. What's more, is that while the Cards made it all the way to the Super Bowl in 2008 despite an running game which was an NFL-worst with 73.6 YPG (3.5 YPC), this year's running game is even WORSE! The Cards talked about a more balanced offense this year, as they were confident that Hightower and their No. 1 pick (Ohio State's Wells) were both ready to be major contributors. However, the Cards enter this game averaging an NFL-low 57.6 YPG on the ground (3.5 YPC). We all know about Arizona's long-time troubles in the Eastern time zone and Arizona is catching the Giants in a very nasty mood on a field where wind can limit the passing game (VERY bad news for a team with no running game) and as already mentioned, that New York front-four (with all its talent and depth) can really put tons of pressure on Kurt Warner. Speaking of running the football, even with Ward gone (Bradshaw looks better) and Jacobs yet to reach his "prime form," the Giants are averaging 147.7 YPG on the ground, hardly much of a drop from LY's league-leading total of 157.4 YPG. Then there is Eli. He had QB ratings of 55.4, 75.9. 77.0 and 73.9 in his first four seasons (54.7% / 77-64 ratio) but matured quickly as an NFL quarterback in leading the Giants to a Super Bowl win after the 2007 regular season. He led the Giants to three straight road wins in the postseason and then the upset of the 18-0 Pats in the Super Bowl. He came back in 2008 with his best statistical season (60.3% / 21-10 ratio / 86.4 rating) in leading the Giants to the NFC's No. 1 seed but then played poorly in a playoff loss to the Eagles. He's been superb in 2009, completing 60.8% with an 11-3 ratio and an 102.2 QB rating. He's developed new receivers with Burress and Toomer gone, as Smith has 41 catches (4 TDs) and Manningham 20 (16.3 YPC / 4 TDs). Eli will be throwing against an Arizona team which entered last week's game in Seattle allowing the most passing yards in the NFL at 303.0 YPG (62.8% / 9-3 ratio / just eight sacks). Seattle has MAJOR issues on the OL and it showed, as Haselbeck was AWFUL (10-29 for 112 yards / 0-1 ratio / 32.5 rating!). Even with that effort, the Arizona pass D is allowing 265 YPG with Nine TDs and just four INTs. The Cardinals' run defense is the best in the league, allowing an average of 59.6 YPG but one wonders if that's due partly to its sieve-like pass D getting exploited. The Cards three wins have come over the Jags, Texans and Seahawks, while they've lost to the up-and-coming 49 ers and were 'toyed' with by Peyton and the Colts. I look for Peyton's brother Eli to have similar success. The Giants gave up 34 points in the first half to the Saints last week and 493 yards for the game, their highest total allowed since the 1988 season. The vaunted pass rush produced ZERO sacks after notching 14 during the team's 5-0 start. Think the Giants will be focused for this home game on Sunday night? Now to the technical trends. The Giants are 9-1 ATS vs the very weak NFC West since 2005 while during that same time frame, "going against" the Cardinals when they were facing NFC East squads gave one a 7-3 ATS mark. That combo gives me a 16-4 (80%) trend to back up overwhelming fundamental advantages held by the Giants. Club-80 Play 20* NY Giants.
Oddsmaker's Error (won last time with Seattle, 41-0!)
My 15* Oddsmaker's Error is on New Orleans was just 8-8 last year but as I mentioned in the preseason, they outscored (463-393) and out-gained their opponents, not typical for a .500 team. Everyone knows about Brees, who in his first three season with the Saints averaged better than 4,600 passing yards per year (about 290 per game!) with an 88-45 ratio. He EXPLODED out of the blocks this year throwing nine TDs and two INTs in his first two games (334.5 YPG) but then didn't throw a TD or INT in his next two (181.0 YPG). Brees was "back in a groove" vs the Giants last week, going 23-of-30 for 369 yards with four TDs and no INTs in New Orleans' 48-27 win. Reggie Bush is now the team's third option at RB, as it's either Bell and Thomas or Thomas and Bell. The defense allowed 339.5 YPG and 24.6 PPG last year but those numbers are down to 301.2 YPG and 18.6 PPG in 2009. The rush D allows just 83.4 YPG (3.8 YPC) and the pass D allows 53.2% completions (tied for the lowest in the NFL), with just five TDs and 11 INTs. The Saints are 5-0 SU and ATS with every win coming by at least 14 points and will take the NFL's highest-scoring offense (38.4 PPG / also No. 1 with 430 YPG) into their game at Miami. The Dolphins are just 2-3 but the team which won the AFC East last year with an 11-5 record (a year after going 1-15), has won two straight and is coming off a bye. The two wins have come with Chad Henne taking over at QB and Henne's superior arm strength (compared to Pennington), gives Miami a chance to "stretch the field" and also makes the team's running game more dangerous. Actually, how much more dangerous can it get? The Dolphins lead the NFL with 177.0 YPG on the ground (4.8 YPC), as Ronnie Brown (443 YR / 4.8 YPC / 6 TDs) teams with Ricky Williams (316 YR / 5.2 YPC). Henne has completed 70.8 percent of his passes in two starts (3 TDs / 0 INTs) with a QB rating of over 100.0. Miami's defense will be severely tested by the Saints but the rush D has been excellent 76.4 YPG (3.4 YPC) and the secondary allows just 56.3% completions. The Dolphins are catching the Saints off the HUGE Week 5 win over the previously unbeaten Giants and with a home MNF showdown on tap with the Falcons in Week 8. The Dolphins have had two weeks to prepare (think we'll see some new wrinkles of the wildcat?) and have dominated the line of scrimmage in all three home games this year. The Dolphins have averaged 213.3 YPG on the ground (4.9 YPC) in their three home games, while holding their opponents to 81.7 YPG (4.2 YPC). That's a real 'recipe for winning' and getting points could turn out to be just a HUGE bonus! Oddsmaker's Error 15* Mia Dolphins.
I agree with all of these picks............Minnesotas luck does finally run out today. Dallas rolls Atlanta in a shootout and Miami covers easily and may even win outright. Saints have beaten every team by double digits so to see the line at -7 is going to make the Saints look like easy money..............which is never the case.
Larry Mess 10.25
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