Stephen Nover
15 Dime - COLTS - The gap between these teams is more than two touchdowns. The Colts may be the best team in football right now. The Rams are in the argument for worst team.
The line isn't as high as it should be because the Rams are at home and nearly beat Jacksonville on the road last week losing in overtime.
But this is all more reason to lay the big wood with Indianapolis. The Colts are rested off their bye week. Peyton Manning is having perhaps his finest season throwing for 12 touchdowns in five games, while averaging 329 passing. He can tear apart a bad Rams secondary that has injury problems.
The Colts have won their last 14 regular-season games. The Rams have lost 16 in a row. They are 11-23 against the spread in their last 34 games as an underdog.
The Rams played their guts out against the Jaguars and suffered even more injuries. The Colts, on the other hand, used their bye week to get healthier. Cornerback Kelvin Hayden and safety Bob Sanders are both expected to play.
The Rams are averaging
Nine points and have yet to run for a touchdown. They won't be able to keep anywhere close to Manning.
15 Dime - PACKERS - This is another mismatch where the offensively-challenged Browns won't be able to trade points with the Packers' high-powered offense.
Green Bay's passing attack and wide receiving depth is too much for the Browns' secondary. Cleveland just lost its best defensive player, linebacker D'Qwell Jackson. Even with Jackson, the Browns ranked last in defense.
Whatever slight talent the Browns had, Eric Mangini got rid of. The Browns have an inaccurate quarterback (Derek Anderson), an over-the-hill lead running back (Jamal Lewis), no tight end after trading Kellen Winslow Jr. and slow receivers who have dropped16 passes in the last two games.
It's not a surprised the Browns rank 30th in points, 30th in turnovers and 31st in yards per game. Anderson has the lowest passer rating in the NFL.
Star special teams returner Joshua Cribbs is the Browns' best player. He's questionable with a knee injury. A number of other Browns, including their best and only pass rusher, Kamerion Wembley, were battling the flu this week which helped push the line up.
It doesn't matter because Green Bay will win by double-digits. The Packers' run defense is underrated. Only six teams have given up less yards per carry and only two have allowed fewer rushing touchdowns.
15 Dime - PATRIOTS - This is a mismatch of epic porportions, enough where I feel comfortable laying more than two touchdowns something I rarely do in the NFL.
Parity has been drummed into everyone's head since the days of Pete Rozelle. The truth of the matter is that this season there is no parity. There are some elite teams, New England included, and there are dreadful non-competitive teams. Tampa Bay is a card-carrying member of this club.
Forget the Buccaneers of past seasons with their solid coaching and well-operated Cover-2 defense. These Bucs don't resemble those clubs.
First year coach Raheem Morris is in over his head and Tampa Bay's defense is terrible ranking second-from-the-bottom against the run. The Bucs also are giving up a league-worst 8.5 yards per play and have allowed the third highest amount of touchdown passes with 13.
Tom Brady cherry-picked a horrible Tennessee secondary last week with six touchdown throws. He'll treat the people of London to a similar performance against this bad secondary, too.
The Buccaneers aren't going to be able to generate anything on offense either. Josh Johnson isn't good enough to be a starting NFL quarterback. He's an easy opponent for defensive guru Bill Belichick to game-plan. The Bucs are a run-first team, but the Patriots have allowed one rushing touchdown all season. They also shut down tight ends, bad news for Kellen Winslow Jr., the Bucs' only real offensive weapon.
15 Dime - DOLPHINS - This is a bad spot and matchup for the undefeated Saints riding high after an impressive home victory against the Giants.
The Saints are traveling and playing on a grass field against a physical, well-coached Miami squad that has extra motivation hearing all week about how great New Orleans is. The Saints have had two weeks to rest and game-plan having been idle last week.
Can you say trap game?
The Saints' defense is improved under Gregg Williams. But they aren't strong enough in this road setting against a Dolphins offense that is the best at running the Wildcat formation and has strong-armed Chad Henne, 2-0 in his NFL career starts, to throw deep if the Saints stack the line.
In their last four games, the Saints have allowed 5.6 yards, 4.9, 4.1 and 6.5 yards rushing to the Giants, Jets, Bills and Eagles respectively.
The Dolphins will be playing ball control, keeping Drew Brees and Co. off the field. Weather could play a part. Rain is in the forecast, which could slow up the Saints' attack being on grass.
15 Dime - STEELERS - The undefeated Vikings are due for a fall and it comes here on a grass field against the defending world champions.
The Vikings blew a 17-point lead with 10 minutes left at home inside their dome stadium against another AFC North Division team, Baltimore, and were lucky to win when the opposing kicker missed a field goal at the gun.
Now the vulnerable Vikings secondary probably will be without its best player, cornerback Antoine Winfield. He has a sprained foot.
Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for the most yards in the NFL this season. He's having a banner year and has the receiving weapons to take advantage with Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and tight end Heath Miller.
Rashard Mendenhall is averaging 5.1 yards per rush. The Vikings' run defense is down a notch from previous years yielding 3.9 yards per run.
The Steelers are more versatile on defense with safety Troy Polamalu back in the lineup.
15 Dime - OVER Steelers/Vikings - Now that the weather report is favorable, expect a lot of points in this matchup.
Those teams with a quarterback who is willing to hang in the pocket can put up big numbers on the Vikings like Joe Flacco did last week. The Vikings have surrendered the sixth-most touchdowns and seventh-worst yards per game. Their run defense is down a notch, too, yielding 3.9 yards per carry.
Ben Roethlisberger is having a career year. He's thrown nine touchdowns during the past four games. Rashard Mendenhall has upgraded Pittsburgh's ground attack since being inserted into the starting lineup averaging 5.1 yards per carry.
Roethlisberger probably won't have to worry about Pro Bowl cornerback Antonie Winfield, who isn't expected to play due to a sprained foot. Without Winfield, the Vikings are forced to use a rotation of career liability Karl Paymah, rookie Asher Allen and Benny Sapp, a special teams player.
Pittsburgh's defense is way down from last year. Losing star defensive end Aaron Smith for the season hurts Pittsburgh's rush defense. Brett Favre has been playing as well as he ever has in his 19-year career. He's gotten in sync with Sidney Rice and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe. Favre's passer rating of 109.5 would be a career-high if he can maintain it.
The Steelers still have to be concerned with Adrian Peterson, the best running back in the NFL. Two hot quarterbacks, two overrated defenses and a fair over/under price make this a total worth going over.
10 Dime - ANGELS - The Yankees, Angels and Phillies are the three best teams in baseball. Unless there's a dominant ace going, the price should never be this high when these teams match up.
The value is with the Angels and that's the way I'm going trying to push my baseball winning streak to five straight games.
Before we get to the starting pitchers, Joe Saunders and Andy Pettitte, let's discuss some other factors that point toward the Angels.
The Yankees are the ones feeling the pressure after not closing the deal on the West Coast during Game 5. Thoughts of their mammoth choke of 2004 have to be in the back of their mind. That was the last time New York reached the ALCS and it blew a 3-0 series lead to Boston in an epic meltdown.
The Angels come into New York loose and with renewed confidence. They have won 12 of their last 16 games. They are 10-3 the past 13 times they've been in the plus $1.51-to-$2.00 range. The Angels are not a team to lay a big price against.
The weather is expected to be much warmer than it was during Games 1 and 2 at Yankee Stadium. Rain and wind are expected, though. Bad weather elements usually are a negative for the favorite since it can add a randomness factor into the equation.
Saunders isn't the type of pitcher bothered by weather conditions, not being a West Coast guy. He pitched superbly in the cold weather in Game 2 holding the Yankees to two runs while pitching into the seventh inning. The Angels are 44-20 in Saunders' last 64 starts.
Pettitte has had trouble pitching this season at the new hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. His home ERA was 4.59 compared to 3.61 on the road. The Angels have defeated Pettitte in six of the last seven times they've faced him.
Nover 10.25
