|
|
Burns 10/25
Ben Burns
Play Title **10** Burns' PERSONAL FAVORITE! (AFTERNOON ROUT!)
Play Selected Point Spread: -4/-101
I'm laying the points with DALLAS. With a 4-1 SU/ATS record, Matt Ryan and the Falcons have shown that last year was no fluke. That said, this is a tough spot for them. They're off a hard-fought "prime-time" win over the Bears last Sunday Night and they've got a huge divisional showdown with the undefeated and division-leading Saints on deck. While the Falcons are off that tough victory, (they were outgained by a 373-253 margin!) the Cowboys had last week off. The fact that the Cowboys had last week off is significant. For starters, they had several nagging injuries and the week off has providing some important 'healing time.' Also, the Cowboys weren't playing up to their potential, so the time off came at a good time, in that regard. Additionally, the Cowboys have won their two previous games, following byes, under coach Wade Phillips. Last season, the Cowboys entered their bye week off a 35-14 loss at New York and having gone just 1-5 ATS their previous six games. However, the time off seemed to refresh them, as they went 3-0 SU/ATS in their next three games, following the bye. The previous season, the Cowboys won six straight games after their bye, including a convincing 38-17 win at Philadelphia in the week immediately following the bye. Looking back further and we find the Cowboys at a profitable 16-8 ATS (18-6 SU) the last 24 times that they were coming off a bye. As impressive as their 4-1 record sounds, it should be noted that the Falcons were beaten pretty badly (26-10) by the Patriots, so it's not like they're unbeatable. Coincidentally, the Falcons entered that game having won back to back games, as they do for this afternoon's game. Therefore, it's worth noting that, including the loss to the Pats, the Falcons are now 0-7 ATS the last seven times that they were coming off back to back victories. This game has extra significance for linebacker Keith Brooking. Brooking, a Georgia native, played his college football at Georgia Tech. He also spent his first 11 seasons with the Falcons, before signing with Dallas in the offseason. He's been a big plus to Phillips' defense, as he leads the Cowboys with 29 solo tackles. Naturally, Brooking will be "fired up" to face his former team. He was quoted as saying: "I'd be lying to you if I was like, 'Ah, I'm not trying to prove to those guys that I can still do it at a high level...'" Speaking of the Dallas defense, it should be noted that the Cowboys have 10 sacks their last three games - after having none in their first three. As for the offense, the Cowboys' 420 yards per game ranks second in all of football - second to only the Saints - well ahead of Atlanta's 327 per game. In addition to it being a big game for Brooking, this is a big game for the entire Cowboys team. A loss here and they fall to .500. With the Giants and Eagles both playing well, that may be a tough hole to dig themselves out of. As running back Tashard Choice had to say: "It's time to exert ourselves and get an identity for our team. We need a big push for the second quarter of the season. We've got to be ready to make a move, to get ourselves on track." I expect the Cowboys, 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS their last five against the NFC South, to do just that, covering the small number along the way. *10 Personal Favorite
New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins (NFL) - 4:15 PM EDT Miami Dolphins Premium Play
Play Title **BIG GAME ALERT** Burns #1 NFL GAME OF THE MONTH!
Play Selected Point Spread: 6/-102
I'm taking the points with MIAMI. Its true that the Saints have looked good. Ok, really good. I don't think it's a "fluke" either. As I mentioned when I took them vs. the Giants last week, they've always been good offensively and this year, they're also playing better on the defensive side of the ball. That said, I also think the Dolphins are better than a lot of people think. Let's not forget that this team won the AFC East last season. Also, since starting the season with three straight losses, they're now coming off back to back victories. Additionally, everyone else has seen how impressive the Saints have looked and the perception that they're "unbeatable" has driven this line way up. Looking at the Dolphins' losses and we find that two of them came on the road and that the three losses all came vs. top tier teams, the Falcons, Colts and Chargers. The Dolphins are 2-1 at home and the lone loss came by four points vs. the Colts, a game which they dominated statistically. Note that the Colts, a team which currently has an identical 5-0 record as the Saints, were only favored by three points when they played here. Now we're getting a much bigger line. I believe that provides us with plenty of value. Looking back a bit further and we find the Fish with six wins in their last eight games here. In addition to playing at home and getting a large handful of points to work with, I believe that the scheduling situation favors the Dolphins. Yes, they're coming off back to back divisional games and they've got another pair of divisional games on deck. That's not normally an ideal situation. However, they're also coming off a bye week and having seen what the Saints have been doing to the rest of the league, they know they certainly can't afford to get caught 'looking ahead.' Note that the bye week should allow linebacker Jerry Porter to return to the lineup. Additionally, note that the Dolphins were 6.5 point home underdogs (sound familiar?) following their bye last season. They responded by knocking off San Diego outright. They dominated that game, too. Miami had 23 first downs to San Diego's 10 and held the ball for nearly 37 minutes. As for the Saints, they're off a huge "statement win" over the Giants AND they've got another very big game vs. Atlanta, their primary division rival, on deck. That's followed by another division game (Carolina). In other words, in my opinion, they very easily could get caught looking past Miami. After last week's impressive performance, they could also be starting to "pat themselves on the back" a little. Its also worth noting that Drew Brees is 0-3 vs. the Dolphins. The Dolphins can run the ball (1st in NFL) AND they can stop the run, ranking third best in the league in that category. Since Henne became the starter, they're also getting improved QB play while avoiding turning the ball over. They're 7-3 ATS their last 10 games played in October. Playing their third straight at home, I believe they've got what it takes to hand the Saints their first loss. *10 GOM
|
