Randall the Handle 10/25
KANSAS CITY +1.89 over San Diego PINNACLE
Yeah, the Chiefs are not exactly a good football team but they’re coming on a bit and one win can do wonders to team morale. You can double that when that wins comes on the road. The Chiefs went into Washington and beat the Skins 14-6 after an OT loss to the Boys the previous week. They’ve already played Philly, Baltimore, the Giants and the aforementioned Cowboys and that’s a pretty decent quartet. They seem to be getting better with each week and as Matt Cassell becomes more comfortable in his new digs with his new teammates, he, too, is becoming more confident and definitely more dangerous. The best news is the heartless Chargers will come to town and this is a team that is simply unworthy of being road chalk. The defense is about as soft as it gets and their pass rush is probably the lamest the league has to offer. The Chargers allow the opposing QB to stand in the pocket and find open receiver after open receiver. In it’s biggest game of the year last week on Monday Night Football, the Chargers allowed two punt returns for TD’s, they allowed 34 points to the Broncos while scoring just three of their own in the second half. A close looks shows the Chargers two wins have come against Oakland in week one by the slimmest of margins (24-20) and a win over Miami in week 3 in the game that the Fish lost Chad Pennington and had to rely on Chad Henne in relief making his NFL debut. Bottom line is the Chargers are a soft, gutless, unmotivated team playing on the road on a short week in a very difficult setting. The Chiefs are coming on and while the +4½ points are tempting, the money line offers up way too much value to pass up on. Play: Kansas City +1.89 (Risking 2 units).
MIAMI +6 over New Orleans PINNACLE
My philosophy of selling high applies to this game, as the Saints stock is soaring through the roof after its dismantling of the Giants last week. That easy win over what was considered a top quality team, combined with the Saints perfect 6-0 record, has the Saints popularity and expectations as high as its ever been. The Oddsmakers know it’s hard to bet against New Orleans and it’s very easy to pull the trigger on them laying less than a converted TD. That’s an enticing line for the betting public, laying –6 and not –7. Don’t get me wrong, the Saints are the straight goods and look almost unbeatable with a slew of talented receivers and a QB, Drew Brees that just might be the best in the business. However, there’s always a right time to “step in” against a team and this is that time to go against the Saints after its well-documented blowout of the Giants. Enter the Dolphins, whose style is perfect for this enemy. You all might remember that Monday Night game a few weeks back when the Dolphins entertained the Colts and held the ball for 45 minutes. They eventually lost that game by four points but they dominated everything but the scoreboard. The Saints and the Colts are extremely similar in styles but now Chad Henne has a whole lot more experience and he’s really beginning to impress. Miami’s wildcat offense is wickedly good and even when 22 guys on the field and the whole coaching staff knows it’s coming, they still can’t stop it. Anyway, the bottom line here is that the time is right to go against the Saints and these Dolphins are the perfect fit. I’m calling the upset but will accept the points. Note: Wait until just before game time to wager on this one because we’re sure to get a better number. I’ll update late Sunday morning to the actual price but I expect it’ll be +6½ or +6 and plus money. Play: Miami +6 (Risking 2.12 units).
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