Jeff Benton
Saturday's 20 Dime College Football trio ... 20 Dime: ARKANSAS (plus the points vs. Ole Miss) ... NOTE: This number is at 6 1/2 in a lot of spots, so I want you to buy the half-point with Arkansas and take that 6 1/2 up to 7, which is obviously a very key number in football.


20 Dime: KANSAS (plus the points vs. Oklahoma) ... NOTE: This number is jumping up to Oklahoma -8, so be sure to shop around and get that number. Do NOT settle for 7 1/2 if you don't have to!


20 Dime: WASHINGTON (plus the points vs. Oregon) ... NOTE: Be sure you AT LEAST get Washington at +10 in this game. There are plenty of spots out there where you can find +10, but if you absolutely cannot, then buy the half-point with Washington to take 9 1/2 up to 10.


Arkansas

Arkansas got completely hosed last week by that crappy SEC officiating crew, which called a bogus personal-foul penalty on the Razorbacks late in the game that allowed Florida to move into position to kick the game-winning field goal. It was a horrific call that the SEC admitted was wrong and it cost Arkansas a shot at a monumental upset win over the top-ranked team in the nation

The question now is, can the Razorbacks overcome that disappointment? Can they put aside the one negative and focus on the positive fact that they played the defending champs even-up all day and then take those positives into today’s game at Ole Miss? Obviously, I don’t have the definitive answer. However, I’ve always believed that 18- to 22-year-old college football players are a resilient bunch, and with a veteran coach like Bobby Petrino piloting Arkansas ship, let’s just say I like the Razorbacks’ chances to bounce back.

This much I do know, though: If Arkansas channels its anger and disappointment in the right direction, they’re winning this game against Ole Miss today. Because the Razorbacks are a better team, plain and simple.

Since suffering two tough SEC losses to Georgia (52-41) and Alabama (35-7), Arkansas has been playing tremendous football. First, it crushed then-unbeaten Texas A&M 47-19 as a two-point underdog in a neutral-site game in Dallas. Then the Hogs hammered then-unbeaten Auburn 44-23 as a 1½-point home underdog. Then last week, they went to Florida as a 24-point underdog and very, very easily could’ve pulled off the biggest shocker of this college football season.

The common thread in the last three games for Arkansas? The improved play of the defense. After yielding 87 points to Georgia and Alabama – their first two Division I-A opponents – the Razorbacks held Texas A&M, Auburn and Florida to an average of 21.7 ppg. Here’s how impressive that is: A&M, Auburn and Florida rank 19th, 12th and 11th in the nation in scoring offense, with each putting up between 33.2 points and 36.3 points per game! Those three explosive offenses combined for just seven touchdowns against Arkansas, only one of which came in the first half!

Today, the Hogs’ defense faces an Ole Miss offense that is incredibly overrated. See, the Rebels put up 45, 52 and 48 points against three non-conference opponents (Memphis, Southeast Louisiana and UAB). But in its three SEC games (South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Alabama), Ole Miss has averaged just 12 points and 280.7 yards per game. The Rebels lost two of those games – to South Carolina and Alabama – while producing a total of 445 yards.

Much was expected of Ole Miss – which at one point was ranked as high as #5 in the polls – because of the return of QB Jevan Snead, whom many predicted before the season would be a sure-fire first-round NFL Draft pick. Turns out, Snead is a fraud. Against his three SEC opponents, the 6-foot-3 junior posted completion percentages of 33.3 (South Carolina), 55.9 (Vanderbilt) and 32.4 (Alabama); passed for a total of 484 yards; and had four TD tosses against seven INTs.

Make no mistake, Snead will be the second-best quarterback on the field today. Arkansas’ Ryan Mallet is now the guy attracting the attention of pro scouts, as he’s taken to Petrino’s high-flying offense like a fish to water. He’s completing 55.1 percent of his throws for 274.3 yards per game with 14 TD strikes and just three picks. True, the Rebels’ pass defense is one of the best in the nation, and Mallet won’t have it easy today. But – BUT – Mallet is the best QB that Ole Miss has seen to this point in the season. Also, Mallet is backed by a rushing attack that’s averaging 172.3 yards over the last three games (4.7 per carry). That’s key, because, Ole Miss’ run defense has surrendered 200.3 rushing ypg (5.1 per carry) in its last three games.

Exactly one year ago, despite their overwhelming talent advantage and despite the fact the Razorbacks were in a transition year, the Rebels went to Arkansas and barely pulled out a 23-21 victory, failing to cover as a 6½-point road favorite. Prior to that, the Razorbacks had been on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, with those four games decided by 32, 35, 11 and 32 points! Going back to 2001, Arkansas is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in this rivalry. On top of that, with last week’s easy spread-cover at Florida, the Razorbacks are now 7-2 ATS in their last Nine games as an underdog; they’ve cashed in six straight games in October (including last year’s cover vs. Ole Miss); and they’ve covered in four straight when getting between 3½ to 10 points.

Bottom line: Having faced Georgia, Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn and Florida the last five weeks, there’s no question Arkansas has faced a brutal schedule. There’s also no question that said schedule has made the Razorbacks a very battle-tested squad. And with as poor as Ole Miss has played in its three SEC games (one of which was against crappy Vanderbilt), especially on offense, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an outright upset today. But we’ll play it safe and grab the generous points.


Kansas

I looked at this game Sunday night and asked myself one question: Where’s the motivation? Where’s the motivation for the Oklahoma Sooners to go on the road for the second straight week, once again without their first-string quarterback, and beat a quality Big 12 opponent by more than a touchdown?

I could not come up with a suitable answer. Because the Oklahoma Sooners are about playing for national championships. Short of that, they’re about playing for Big 12 championships and BCS Bowl games. But six games into the 2009 campaign, the Sooners sit at 3-3, and their lofty goals are in the toilet. Now, Oklahoma will be lucky to get into the Holiday Bowl.

Think this team, which battled Florida in last year’s BCS Championship Game back in Janurary and now finds itself at 3-3, is going to get fired up week to week in hopes of landing a berth in the freakin’ Holiday Bowl? Not a chance!

Now, I’ll admit that Oklahoma’s losses were against the three best teams on their schedule (BYU, Miami and Texas). It’s also true that the Sooners very easily could’ve won all three games, which were decided by 1 point (BYU), 1 point (Miami) and 3 points (Texas). And I won’t ignore the fact that OU’s three wins were all incredibly impressive (65-0, 45-0, 33-7). But the way in which they lost that Red River Rivalry game to Texas last week – Sam Bradford goes down in a heap yet again, this time just two series into the game, then backup QB Landry Jones throws two horrific INTs that sealed OU’s fate – I can’t help but think the Sooners will be extremely flat when they take the field at Kansas.

If that happens, Oklahoma could VERY easily swallow loss #4 today, because the Jayhawks are a quality football team. Yes, Kansas is coming off its own disappointing defeat (34-30 at lowly Colorado), but that was as classic of a look-ahead situation as I’ve ever seen. The Jayhawks came out thinking they would waltz over the Buffaloes and before they knew it, they were down 24-3 late in the first half, and although the Jayhawks did mount a rally, it came up just short. Although we’ll never know, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if coach Mark Mangino spent a chunk of prep team during Colorado week working on Oklahoma.

Before getting clipped at Colorado, Kansas had won seven consecutive games, and it comes into this one still averaging 38.8 points and 502.3 total yards per game, figures that rank fifth and second in the nation. With Bradford out for Oklahoma, the Jayhawks without question clearly have the better quarterback on the field in senior Todd Reesing. He enters today as the nation’s third-leading passer at 330 yards per game, and he’s completing 67 percent of his passes for 329.8 yards per game with 15 TDs (tied for third in the nation) and just four INTs.

Last year in Norman, Okla., Reesing had a banner day against a VERY good Sooner defense, going 24-for-41 for 342 yards and two TDs (though he did also get picked twice). Because of Reesing, the Jayhawks were able to hang with the Sooners the entire game – it was actually a seven-point game midway through the third quarter – and although Kansas eventually lost 45-31, it covered as a 19-point underdog. Keep in mind: That was a much better, much more focused Oklahoma team than the one the Jayhawks will face today. Keep in mind also that last year’s game was in Norman; this one is in Lawrence, Kan., where Kansas is 18-2 since October 2006.

Including last year’s non-cover against the Jayhawks, Oklahoma is 0-2 ATS the last two years after facing Texas, and the Sooners are now just 3-4 SU (1-4-1 ATS in lined games) since losing to Florida in the national championship game. Meanwhile, Kansas is on ATS runs of 13-6 at home and 24-10 overall.

Simply put, if the Jayhawks’ inconsistent offensive line can hold up against Oklahoma’s fierce pass rush and protect Reesing, Kansas will hang in this one from start to finish and challenge for the outright win. But even if the Sooners are ahead by two scores late, I have complete faith that Kansas’ quick-strike offense can get us at least a backdoor cover. Take the points.


Washington

When the line on this game was released Sunday and I saw Oregon as a six-point favorite, I put a checkmark above Washington’s name as I thought the number was a tad high.. Then the days passed and the number kept going up – Oregon -7, Oregon -7½, Oregon -8½, Oregon -9 – and I could not believe my eyes. As soon as it hit 10 on Thursday, it was a lock that Washington would part of my Saturday card.

Guys, I’ve been around this industry for well over a decade, and therefore I have seen my share of line moves that have stumped me. But I cannot remember the last time I saw a college football number jump four full points over the course of a week without injuries or suspensions driving the line move. What exactly am I missing here?

Washington owns three solid wins over Idaho (not a bad team at all), USC and Arizona, all at home. And with the exception of a 34-14 loss at Stanford (I used Stanford as my 20 Dime Best Bet that day because the Huskies were in a HUGE flat spot coming off the USC win), Washington was competitive in its other three losses. The Huskies not only were able to hang with LSU in their season opener – losing 31-23 as a 17-point ‘dog – but they outgained LSU 478-321. They also took Notre Dame to overtime on the road (losing 37-30) and went to Arizona State last Saturday had were tied 17-17 before giving up a fluke 50-yard TD pass with five seconds left to play to lose 24-17.

As for Oregon, yeah, it is riding a five-game winning streak (4-0 ATS in the last four) since that embarrassing season-opening loss at Boise State. But other than a very, VERY impressive 42-3 rout of then-undefeated Cal at home on Sept. 26, what have the Ducks done? They barely defeated Purdue (38-36) and Utah (31-24) at home; they destroyed Washington State at home (52-6), but the Cougars are a joke (hence the reason Oregon was a 35-point favorite in that contest); and finally, two weeks ago, they went to UCLA and won 24-10 as a three-point favorite.

In that game against the Bruins, though, the Ducks got three gift touchdowns in the span of four minutes: the first was a kickoff return for a score to start the second half; the second was a pick-six on the first play after the ensuing kickoff; and the third was the direct result of a fumble recovery on UCLA’s next series, and that led to a short, easy Ducks touchdown. Take those three gifts away, and Oregon would’ve had 3 points!

Now, I will cop to a major fundamental mismatch in this game – and it HAS to be the reason why this line has skyrocketed: Oregon runs the football as well as any team in the country, averaging more than 200 yards per game on the ground and 4.6 per carry, while the Huskies’ run D has been shaky (162.4 rushing ypg allowed, 5.1 per carry). Well, here comes the “yeah, but …” Yeah, but Washington has been much better against the run recently, yielding just 118 ypg and 4.1 per carry the last three weeks. Signs of improvement, I’d say. Also, against USC, the Huskies got out-rushed by 194 yards (250-56), and yet still found a way to pull off the stunning upset as a 20½-point ‘dog.

Finally, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I love Washington QB Jake Locker. The guy is a bona-fide difference-maker, and with him on the field, the Huskies are never out of any game. Locker, now projected by some experts to be the top quarterback taken in next year’s NFL Draft should the he forego his senior season, has thrown for 1,702 yards with 11 TDs and six INTs, while adding 223 rushing yards and four more TDs on the ground. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, I know, but you just have to watch Locker play. He’s got all the intangibles you love about a quarterback. The guy just makes plays, and he’ll make plays today against Oregon’s defense, mark my words.

Bottom line: The guys who have been loading up on Oregon and driving this number all the way up to 10 apparently have forgotten three very important pieces of information: 1) Washington has been competitive in every one of its home games this year, winning the last three outright; 2) This is just the third road game all year for Oregon, and with the exception of that four-minute stretch at the start of the second half at UCLA two weeks ago, the Ducks didn’t look all that hot in the first two; and 3) Oregon is in a big-time look-ahead spot because next week, the Ducks get USC at home in Eugene – and you know the players will have the Trojans on their minds today as that’s the de-facto Pac-10 Championship Game.

Throw in a legitimate revenge situation – Washington has dropped five straight meetings in this rivalry, all by 20 points or more, going 0-5 ATS – and I’m all over Steve Sarkisian and his improving Huskies in this one